DT vs QB - Bust Rate

[Panthro]

Sorry NC Biscuit not the type of bust you are looking for.

Good article....didn't want it to be lost in the other thread.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackriskmyth.php

Quarterback Hit Rate: 48.2%

Defensive Tackle Hit Rate: 46.9%

Quarterback Bust Rate: 44.4%

Defensive Tackle Bust Rate: 46.9%

I find it very interesting that according to this data, quarterbacks have higher success rates and lower bust rates than defensive tackles, yet defensive tackle is generally perceived to be the safer route.

It's a small sample size, but the disparity is even larger in the top five. In that area, only one defensive tackle has panned out of five opportunities, whereas five of 10 quarterbacks have been "hits," and only four of 10 quarterbacks have been busts.

Considering how important the quarterback is in relation to the defensive tackle, if a team is deciding between the two positions, the "risk" factor should not sway them away from taking a signal-caller. In fact, it's actually riskier to take a defensive tackle.

[guffeyp]

Article is interesting, but all of the busts and hits are based on his opinion. That can skew the results both ways because I don't agree with his assessment of DT and QB.

[The Saltman]

Only 4 DTs have ever been picked #1 Overall. 3 were busts and the other was still not worth the pick.

I like Dareus but Just sayin..

[theyhateme45]

Article is interesting, but all of the busts and hits are based on his opinion. That can skew the results both ways because I don't agree with his assessment of DT and QB.

There are actually facts behind that.... I did something similar on this topic earlier this year

Earlier Thread on topic

There is a Myth going around that somehow Drafting D-lineman is safer than drafting a QB. I think we all agree that the upside for drafting a franchise QB is more valuable in the long run than a stud D-Lineman. So I researched the past 7 drafts and took a look into the top defensive lineman and quarterback that were drafted. In the end the bust rate of the QB position is actually less than the bust rate of D-Lineman. So people want to pass on Luck/QB because he maybe a bust and become the next Ryan leaf… well we can go d-line and they can become the next Maybin or whoever.

Also the scouting of QB’s have gotten better and the bust rate of Top QB’s are actually pretty low compared to how people make it seem. It’s not a 50/50 coin flip or complete crapshoot anymore.

D-Line

2010

#2 Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska, Detroit- Stud, off to an Awesome start

#3 Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma, Tampa Bay- Off to a promising start

#9 BJ Raji NT, Green Bay - Part time player first season, but this year has really came on and is proving his worth as a top 10 player

#10 Tyson Alualu DE California, Jacksonville – Off to a promising start

#13 Brandon Graham DE Michigan, Philly- Off to a decent start

2009

#3 Tyson Jackson DE LSU, Kansas City – Bust so far

#11 Aaron Maybin DE/OLB PSU, Buffalo – Bust Bust Bust Bust

#13 Brian Orakpo DE/OLB Texas, Washington – Stud

2008

#2 Chris Long DE Virginia, St. Louis – Very slow start but coming on now… Still underachieving for the #2 pick in the draft

#5 Glenn Dorsey DE LSU, Kansas City – Has been labeled a bust for where he was drafted and expectations- 3.5 Career sacks

#6 Vernon Gholston DE/OLB Ohio St, NY Jets – Bust Bust Bust Bust

#7 Sedrick Ellis DT USC, New Orleans – Very very solid player, not huge numbers but easily worth the pick

#8 Derrick Harvey DE Florida, Jacksonville – Bust Bust Bust, He was finally given up on this year and benched for a 6th rounder

2007

#4 Gaines Adams DE Clemson, TB/Chicago – RIP – Decent player but underachieved greatly for what TB wanted out of him for a top 5 pick and was called out by the organization for his lack of production, then given up on a traded to Chicago for a 2nd round pick.

#8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Atlanta – Bust Bust Bust Bust

#10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Houston – Considered by some to be a bust, was in jeopardy of losing his job at one point, but he is a decent player… just not playing like a top 10 pick.

2006

#1 Mario Williams DE NC State, Houston – Stud, Worth #1 pick

#12 Haloti Ngata DT Oregon, Baltimore – Worth # 12 pick

#14 Brodrick Bunkley DT FSU, Philly – Had a couple of decent seasons… nothing special, arguable if he’s worth #14 pick

2005

#16 Travis Johnson DE/DT FSU, Houston/San Diego – Top D-Line player taken in 2005 and has not been very good over his career… But he is only a the #16 pick of the draft

2004

#14 Tommy Harris DT Oklahoma, Chicago – Pro bowl player with ups and downs… recently benched this year for his performance. But Multiple time pro-bowler and easily worth the 14 pick of the draft IMO.

Quarterbacks

2010

#1 Sam Bradford, Rams- Off to a promising start – Could be franchise QB of future

#25 The Golden Calf of Bristol, Denver - Had one great start, 1 decent - Off to a good start, Jury still out

2009

#1 Matthew Stafford, Detroit – Plagued by injuries, otherwise off to a promising start- Could be franchise Qb of future

#5 Mark Sanchez, NYJ- On a great team but off to a very good start. Has lead his team on multiple game winning drives, limited turnovers- Could be franchise QB

#17 Josh Freeman, TB – Also if to a good start and is showing a lot of improvement every game he plays – Could be franchise QB

2008

#3 Matt Ryan, Atlanta- Don’t like him…. He is a franchise QB

#18 Joe Flacco, Ravens – Franchise QB

2007

#1 Jamarcus Russel, Raiders/Home – Bust Bust Bust Bust Bust

#22 Brady Quinn- Bust Bust Bust Bust

2006

#3 Vince Young, Tennessee – Jury still out, but has underachieved and suffered too many character/maturity issues for the #3 pick of the draft

#10 Matt Leinart, Arizona/Houston – Bust Bust bust

#11 Jay Cutler, Denver/Chicago – Pro bowler, Franchise Qb, currently leading his team to a top NFC record

2005

#1 Alex Smith, San Fran – Bust

#24 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay – Probowl/Franchise QB

#25 Jason Campbell, Washington/Oakland – Not a complete bust, but not a franchise QB either…

2004

#1 Eli Manning, NY Giants – Probowl/Superbowl/Franchise QB

#4 Phillip Rivers, San Diego – Probowl/Franchise QB

#11 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh – Probowl/Superbowl/Franchise QB

#22 JP Loseman, Buffalo/Journeyman – Bust Bust Bust

[ncbobcat]

Both pecentages were around two points. A wash if you ask me. If it were like 5%-10% difference, then yeah, I might agree with you.

That's what most would call a statistical tie.

The question is which bust hurts a franchise the most? I would agrue the QB does.

[Panthro]

Both pecentages were less than two points. A wash if you ask me. If it were like 5%-10% difference, then yeah, I might agree with you.

That's what most would call a statistical tie.

The question is which bust hurts a franchise the most? I would agrue the QB does.

And which would help this franchise the most if they both turn out to be probowlers

[ncbobcat]

And which would help this franchise the most if they both turn out to be probowlers

True, but which one this year between Dareus and Newton is the project and which is not?

Projects have a higher bust potential, there's not point in debating that. You may not consider Newton a project, but many of us do.

[Panthro]

True, but which one this year between Dareus and Newton is the project and which is not?

Projects have a higher bust potential, there's not point in debating that. You may not consider Newton a project, but many of us do.

Dareus=Fairley=Austin

[Mr. Scot]

So then the lesson we can take from this is that we should draft A J Green, Patrick Peterson or Von Miller. I can live with that :thumbsup:

[TheRealDeal]

What is the bust rate of drafting QBs at #1 that the consensus is they wouldn't be top 5 any other year?

100%?

Great

[Panthro]

What is the bust rate of drafting QBs at #1 that the consensus is they wouldn't be top 5 any other year?

100%?

Great

Well since we can only evaluate the past and no one can see into the future (besides you) I'd say that information is inconclusive.

[TheRealDeal]

So is making blanket generalizations.

Cam is a project and everyone here realizes that. He's not the typical #1 pick and therefor he has a lot higher chance of being a bust.

Troll harder

[Ruff]

But, another thing about this whole "bust/hit" rate. The amount of media coverage has changed so drastically, and the knowledge of each individual prospect, it's getting harder and harder to bust.

There's a reason why these Matt Ryans, Joe Flaccos, Sam Bradfords, and Josh Freemans haven't turned out to be busts. Scouts are more knowledgeable, have access to more resources, and really get to evaluate each and every scout.

The internet, and the ability to stay hyper-connected, along with ESPN (and other broadcasters) expanding their coverage to show more than just a handful of college teams, lets us really see each and every prospect, which helps wade through the busts.

[blackcatgrowl]

So is making blanket generalizations.

Cam is a project and everyone here realizes that. He's not the typical #1 pick and therefor he has a lot higher chance of being a bust.

Troll harder

"You're making blanket generalizations!!!!!111"

"Now let me make a blanket generalization and say everyone realizes Cam is a project!"