Taking a QB may put us in the cellar

[CRA]

Ok. OK history lesson. First the parameters since i am discussing the top players we will only be talking about the first five picks and only go back to 1990.

1990- Cortez Kennedy (safe pick) 11 seasons and considered one of the best defensive tackles of all time.

Jeff George ( Reach) A nightmare for the team that drafted him. Regularly ignored his coaches plays for his own. (Sound familar) Bounced around the league. Interesting tidbit Andre Ware was the second QB taken.

1991- Russell Maryland (safe pick) 10 seasons in the league.

This is a interesting year cause the first QB taken was Todd Marinovich.

Top five is DT, CB, FS, and OLB.

1992- Craptastic year. Sean Gilbert ( DT) surrounded by losers like Steve Emtman, Desmond Howard and Quintin Coryatt.

1993- Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer top two picks. Bledsoe was moderately successful Mirer not so much. Willie Roaf several picks down seems to have been the safer pick. This year maybe one of the reasons now tackles are taken higher.

fast forward past Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer and Big Dan Wilkerson.

1995- Warren Sapp drops because of some harmless herb. Kerry Collins and Steve McNair are passed over for Tony Boselli and a Penn State runningback. Boselli was the safe pick i guess and Ki-Jana Carter was the upside pick.

fast forward to the Manning era.

1998- Manning and Leaf. Then there is WOODSON. Corners are worthy of a top 2 pick. I bet you the Chargers wish they had taken Woodson.

1999- Year of the QB. Couch, McNabb, and AKILI SMITH. Question is if Ricky Williams was so coveted by Ditka why would four teams pass on him. Cause of the myth that QB's are better picks.

to be cont.

Um, okay.....

still, NFL draft history doesn't show picking WRs and DTs or CBs is safer than QBs in the 1st round.

[mick eye]

I see he did the research. BUT he did not add the variable of the top WR, CB, or other positions. The odds on that page made me think of poker. Green, Peterson, and Marcel are our outs. Cam is a gut shot draw. Gabbert is a two pair.

[DaCityKats]

bengals have a 1st round qb. disgruntle and all.

[mick eye]

Point blank you miss on a QB and your looking for a new job. You pass on a QB for a CB, DT, or WR and you buy some time to develop your squad. A vet QB and BPA then next year take a QB is the strategy. Luck, Landry Jones, Matt Barkley, Ryan Lindley, and Brandon Weeden. Or maybe Jimmy Clausen has a miracle turnaround.

[Pox 08]

we should give the Bengals, our first, third this year, and our first and second next year for Palmer. Possibly then, He can do for us what he did for the Bengals and take us to the promised land.

[panthers55]

Starting quarterbacks (excluding the Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, Bengals, Redskins, Vikings and 49ers because nobody knows what the hell they're doing)

NFC

Saints: Drew Brees 2nd rounder, 32nd overall (so technically a first if you wanna look at it that way)

Falcons: Matt Ryan 1st rounder

Buccaneers: Josh Freeman 1st rounder

Bears: Jay Cutler 1st rounder

Lions: Matt Stafford 1st rounder

Packers: Rodgers 1st rounder

Giants: Eli Manning 1st rounder

Cowboys: Tony Romo Undrafted

Eagles: Vick 1st rounder

Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck 6th rounder

Rams: Sam Bradford 1st Rounder

8 out of 11 are first rounders with one early second and two late/undrafteds

AFC

Ravens: Joe Flacco 1st rounder

Browns: Colt McCoy 3rd rounder

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger 1st rounder

Texans: Matt Schaub 3rd rounder

Colts: Peyton Manning 1st rounder

Jaguars: David Garrard 4th rounder

Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick 7th rounder

Dolphins: Chad Henne 2nd rounder

Patriots: Tom Brady 6th rounder

Jets: Mark Sanchez 1st rounder

Raiders: Jason Campbell 1st rounder

Chiefs: Matt Cassel 7th rounder

Broncos: Kyle Orton 5th rounder

Chargers: Phillip River 1st rounder

So 6 out of 14 first rounders, 3 2nd/third rounders, and 5 late rounders.

That makes a total of 14 of 25 (56%) established starters are first rounders with 8 of those being top five selections, and 5 of those being first overall. 4 of 25 (16%) are 2nd or third rounders, and 7 of 25 (28%) are late or undrafted.

Now if you overlay this with teams who made the playoffs it shows that outside of Brady and the ex-patriot Cassel (who both are from the same system), you have Hasselbeck whose team had a regular season losing record and played over his head when it counted.

And of course Brees who was picked 33rd (should have been a definite first rounder, it turns out) make up the list of non-first rounders. So if we pick up anyone outside of the first round history shows he has perhaps a 33% of being great and leading us to the playoffs one day versus going with a first rounder and the odds double. Seems a no-brainer to me.

Then again I would keep investing my first rounder on a quarterback until I hit one. Especially if there is a rookie cap. Finding a franchise quarterback has to be our highest priority. Unless you think he is already on the team, then you need to find him or the best proximity you can find. After all if we know anything, it is that there are no sure things and no slam dunks no matter what people say. I also know if you are not playing the game, you can't win the lottery either. If Hurney wants to gamble away another first rounder, I would rather it be on a Newton than previous ones we made to trade up for Brown and Otah. Good picks but less impactful than the quarterback. And if we end up first in the draft next year I would surely pull the trigger on Luck. Then I know I have my bases covered, I will likely get to trade one of them for more picks than I used to acquire them and I will definitely have 1 if not 2 franchise quarterbacks setting me up for a decade. If I don't get a high one next year, I will still have Newton and I am grooming him along. But what I don't do is put things off and hope that things fall right next year. After all, how did that work out this year with Luck?

But that is just me........

There are surely other valid opinions.

[Lumps]

we should give the Bengals, our first, third this year, and our first and second next year for Palmer. Possibly then, He can do for us what he did for the Bengals and take us to the promised land.

don't believe you can trade players with no CBA

[Pox 08]

don't believe you can trade players with no CBA

Well sumbitch, there goes my plan for multiple sb championships.

[Sloth]

This is very compelling. I'd hate for my team to ever be in the cellar.

[davos]

Is it possible to use a rookie QB as a stop gap QB? I'm saying this both jokingly and supercereally because I'm fairly certain at least 5 of these guys can do better than Clausen. Additionally, I'm thinking we can afford to spend a pick on a QB in the 3rd either at the top or tail end of the round. Webb did alright when thrown in last year for Minny, so why not just grab one up like Ponder or Stanzi, see if he's good, then we look like geniuses if they turn us around. If it doesn't work out, not that big of a deal, we likely used the top choice on a Dareus or Peterson and we can scoop up Landry Jones in 2012. Future!!!!

[Mr. Scot]

Nope. People around here strive for 7-9.

Still the absolute dumbest argument on the board.

Nobody here wants to lose. We just disagree on the best way to win.

We all want a Super Bowl...your way hasn't worked. The stop-gap vet way that is...

We didn't come close to winning a Super Bowl in 2003?

[Mr. Scot]

Starting quarterbacks (excluding the Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, Bengals, Redskins, Vikings and 49ers because nobody knows what the hell they're doing)

NFC

Saints: Drew Brees 2nd rounder, 32nd overall (so technically a first if you wanna look at it that way)

Falcons: Matt Ryan 1st rounder

Buccaneers: Josh Freeman 1st rounder

Bears: Jay Cutler 1st rounder

Lions: Matt Stafford 1st rounder

Packers: Rodgers 1st rounder

Giants: Eli Manning 1st rounder

Cowboys: Tony Romo Undrafted

Eagles: Vick 1st rounder

Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck 6th rounder

Rams: Sam Bradford 1st Rounder

8 out of 11 are first rounders with one early second and two late/undrafteds

AFC

Ravens: Joe Flacco 1st rounder

Browns: Colt McCoy 3rd rounder

Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger 1st rounder

Texans: Matt Schaub 3rd rounder

Colts: Peyton Manning 1st rounder

Jaguars: David Garrard 4th rounder

Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick 7th rounder

Dolphins: Chad Henne 2nd rounder

Patriots: Tom Brady 6th rounder

Jets: Mark Sanchez 1st rounder

Raiders: Jason Campbell 1st rounder

Chiefs: Matt Cassel 7th rounder

Broncos: Kyle Orton 5th rounder

Chargers: Phillip River 1st rounder

So 6 out of 14 first rounders, 3 2nd/third rounders, and 5 late rounders.

That makes a total of 14 of 25 (56%) established starters are first rounders with 8 of those being top five selections, and 5 of those being first overall. 4 of 25 (16%) are 2nd or third rounders, and 7 of 25 (28%) are late or undrafted.

A little misleading (though not intentionally so). Here's why.

Saints: Drew Brees 2nd rounder, 32nd overall (so technically a first if you wanna look at it that way)

Bears: Jay Cutler 1st rounder

Eagles: Vick 1st rounder

Texans: Matt Schaub 3rd rounder

Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick 7th rounder

Raiders: Jason Campbell 1st rounder

Chiefs: Matt Cassel 7th rounder

Broncos: Kyle Orton 5th rounder

Yes, that's the round they were drafted in, but it's not how they were acquired by their current team.

To be completely accurate with where you're going, I think you have to factor in free agency and trades.

[Dpantherman]

Driving in the rain can kill you, stay inside today.

[Panthro]

Still the absolute dumbest argument on the board.

Nobody here wants to lose. We just disagree on the best way to win.

We didn't come close to winning a Super Bowl in 2003?

You act like it's 2004. Not 2011.