To Mr. Scot and those who share his view.

[teeray]

Look at it this way...

In the 1994 Draft, the best quarterback available was considered to be Heath Shuler. Also available in that draft, defensive tackle Bryant Young. Not one of the best of all time, but still a great player (made for a winning tandem with Dana Stubblefield in San Fran).

Now, if you're GM for a team that had need at both positions, which guy do you take?

Based on the logic of "gotta take a potential franchise QB", Shuler would be the guy. But with the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that would have been a pretty big mistake.

That's how we view this year's draft.

I have been trying to stay away tonight, but you are asking us questions with 20/20 hindsight. You can't say that about this class because for all we know this could be the best class in history. I can turn around and ask the same thing about Miami passing on Ryan because Ryan had too many question marks. In hindsight that was pretty stupid IMO.

If we could see into the future this would be a piece of cake.

What happens if we pass on Newton, don't get Luck, and they go on to win championships while we are still trying to get our franchise moving 5 years down the road.

Is Cam a perfect prospect? No. But he is a a really, really good prospect that in my opinion is worth the #1 pick.

Some of you guys act like he throws the ball underhanded :lol:

[carpanfan96]

Actually I have, and Mav did, but I'll give you another.

Look at it this way...

In the 1994 Draft, the best quarterback available was considered to be Heath Shuler. Also available in that draft, defensive tackle Bryant Young. Not one of the best of all time, but still a great player (made for a winning tandem with Dana Stubblefield in San Fran).

Now, if you're GM for a team that had need at both positions, which guy do you take?

Based on the logic of "gotta take a potential franchise QB", Shuler would be the guy. But with the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that would have been a pretty big mistake.

That's how we view this year's draft.

Yes, but thats with hindsight. Also you can't really use bust rates in this at DT's are just as high as QB's. They both sit at around 44 percent for first round busts. If both are needs, you take the QB if they are rated similar on your board.... Also the DT considered the best was Wilkinson if I remember correctly who had a pretty decent career, but didn't stay in cinci for that long..... Oddly enough, he ended up playing for the Redskins. ( The team that drafted Shuler...)

So not a good draft for either team, if your looking at it from a team stand point.

[teeray]

Another problem with always going BPA is that generally speaking most QBs are drafted higher than their perceived value. Every once in a while a guy slips like Rodgers and Clausen. But in general QBs are over drafted. Theoretically you could end up NEVER drafting a QB.

[frash.exe]

LOL

"Because Cam Newton reminds me of Heath Shuler, even though i have no idea of what Cam's career is going to be like, let's take a lineman"

Yes let me apply an example that allows me the use of hindsight too

[chef17]

I have been trying to stay away tonight, but you are asking us questions with 20/20 hindsight. You can't say that about this class because for all we know this could be the best class in history. I can turn around and ask the same thing about Miami passing on Ryan because Ryan had too many question marks. In hindsight that was pretty stupid IMO.

If we could see into the future this would be a piece of cake.

What happens if we pass on Newton, don't get Luck, and they go on to win championships while we are still trying to get our franchise moving 5 years down the road.

Is Cam a perfect prospect? No. But he is a a really, really good prospect that in my opinion is worth the #1 pick.

Some of you guys act like he throws the ball underhanded :lol:

Would be funny if he did

[mav1234]

Keep beating around the bush. You still have not answered my question.

If Luck was in a draft where he was not someone I thought was going to make the biggest difference on the team I might not want to draft him...

Let me see if I am understanding:

Luck is as good as advertised, but there are better DT and CB prospects?

In that case, it would depends on how much better they were, and what level we're talking. I have a hard time with that since Luck basically had one of the highest grades you can give a QB, so it would be more like the DT and CB were *equal* to him.

[Mr. Scot]

I am amazed that you still have not answered the question. Is it because if you answer it truthfully and your answer is I would draft Luck, then you would be in the same shoes as the ones who want to draft Newton?

My answer was that I wouldn't draft Luck if I didn't think he was the BPA at a position of need (same answer as Mav's).

It's been answered (link) and illustrated (link).

[Mr. Scot]

I have been trying to stay away tonight, but you are asking us questions with 20/20 hindsight. You can't say that about this class because for all we know this could be the best class in history. I can turn around and ask the same thing about Miami passing on Ryan because Ryan had too many question marks. In hindsight that was pretty stupid IMO.

If we could see into the future this would be a piece of cake.

What happens if we pass on Newton, don't get Luck, and they go on to win championships while we are still trying to get our franchise moving 5 years down the road.

Is Cam a perfect prospect? No. But he is a a really, really good prospect that in my opinion is worth the #1 pick.

Some of you guys act like he throws the ball underhanded :lol:

You can't see the future either.

I judge based on what I see. So do you. Our judgments are different.

So what?

[Mr. Scot]

Yes, but thats with hindsight. Also you can't really use bust rates in this at DT's are just as high as QB's. They both sit at around 44 percent for first round busts. If both are needs, you take the QB if they are rated similar on your board.... Also the DT considered the best was Wilkinson if I remember correctly who had a pretty decent career, but didn't stay in cinci for that long..... Oddly enough, he ended up playing for the Redskins. ( The team that drafted Shuler...)

So not a good draft for either team, if your looking at it from a team stand point.

Point being that's how many of us see this draft playing out, with the best quarterback turning out to be a bust and the best player at another position turning out to be pretty good.

It's not about bust rates. It's about how we view the prospects.

[OneBadassCat]

I want to flip the script on you to see what your true opinion is.

Here is the scenario: Panthers have the number one pick. You all seem to be in agreement that Luck would be worth the #1 pick. Here is the twist. Luck is not the BPA. There is a better ranked DT, WR, and CB. Who do you draft and why.

Analyst are split saying we should take Luck #1 while others say we should take a different prospect. Everything about the Panthers and the NFL exist as it does this very minute. Also Cam Newton does not exist in this scenario so do not even bring his name up in this thread please.

It depends on what you mean. If Luck is the same caliber QB he's always been and there just happens to be better caliber WR's and DT's. Or are you suggesting that Luck is not as good and is considered more of a project with other players being the BPA?

I would probably take Luck based on need and NFL readiness in the 1st scenario. Or if you suggest that he is a project like Cam or The Golden Calf of Bristol or whoever then I may be more inclined to select a DT or WR.

I hope this isn't some racism argument. Why is it so hard to believe that maybe some guys just don't want a QB who will likely be project with only a years worth of quality playing experience?

Plus I think you underestimate the Matt Moore fans here. I really want him to have the best chance possible so yeah part of me wants us to draft someone else because I'm a fan. Not because I have some deep seeded hate for Cam Newton.

[nagai]

It astounds me how you guys are getting so lost in Scot's analogy. Potential great QB doesn't mean anything, you still need to do your own scouting and see if you think that it's likely that the QB will transition well in the NFL. The anti QB crowd likes Luck, but doesn't like Cam. They have different skill sets and hence will transition differently. Why do I even need to make comments like these?

[Mr. Scot]

LOL

"Because Cam Newton reminds me of Heath Shuler, even though i have no idea of what Cam's career is going to be like, let's take a lineman"

Yes let me apply an example that allows me the use of hindsight too

Well, I knew somebody would be dumb enough to read that and think it meant that Newton was the next Shuler. Congrats on winning the prize :thumbsup:

Again, the point being made is that we see their careers taking similar paths, i.e. the best quarterback in the draft turning out to be a bust and the best player at another position (DT, CB, WR, whatever) turning out to be a solid player.

That's what we think will happen to this year's draft class too. Get it?

And no, we don't know the future. Neither do you.

[Mr. Scot]

It astounds me how you guys are getting so lost in Scot's analogy. Potential great QB doesn't mean anything, you still need to do your own scouting and see if you think that it's likely that the QB will transition well in the NFL. The anti QB crowd likes Luck, but doesn't like Cam. They have different skill sets and hence will transition differently. Why do I even need to make comments like these?

Beats me.

I didn't think it was that tough to understand, though I did know someone would look at it and go "OMG YOU'RE SAYING CAM NEWTON IS LIKE HEATH SHULER" :lol:

[Mr. Scot]

Another problem with always going BPA is that generally speaking most QBs are drafted higher than their perceived value. Every once in a while a guy slips like Rodgers and Clausen. But in general QBs are over drafted. Theoretically you could end up NEVER drafting a QB.

Not theoretical at all.

We overdrafted one last year :(

(and it could have been worse than it was)