Draft Nervousness

[Real Emotional Trash]

Wish my username was "SuperSaiyanSwagger," but that's totally irrelevant.

[Stroupe-a-loop]

dude you are the biggest TOOL i have ever encountered on the world wide internet. your posts are always like a friggin book,with little substance in them other than your own opinions on EVERYTHING. opinions i might add that you think are FACT and the final word. everytime somebody disagrees with you, you same the same stupid sht like " only an idiot would think that" or "thats stupid". get a friggin life buddy.

Rude. And I refuse to believe Mr.Scot is the biggest tool you have ever encountered on the internet. I've played Madden online; it get's a lot worse.

[panthers55]

This analysis would be more impactful if it detailed the falling stars section using players at similar positions as you did on the "picking between 2 picks".

For example we picked Brown not because he was BPA but was the best player at a position of need to replace Peppers. Who was a better DE choice at that pick still on the board? If there were some, then perhaps we should have gone in a different direction. If Brown was the BPA at that position of need, then we made a good choice.

[Mr. Scot]

Rude. And I refuse to believe Mr.Scot is the biggest tool you have ever encountered on the internet. I've played Madden online; it get's a lot worse.

Given the source, I take pride in receiving that post :lol:

[Highlandfire]

This is why you go Green..

Not no, hell no. We take a friggin WR #1 and I quit because we have the most moronic staff in NFL History

[Mr. Scot]

This analysis would be more impactful if it detailed the falling stars section using players at similar positions as you did on the "picking between 2 picks".

For example we picked Brown not because he was BPA but was the best player at a position of need to replace Peppers. Who was a better DE choice at that pick still on the board? If there were some, then perhaps we should have gone in a different direction. If Brown was the BPA at that position of need, then we made a good choice.

I can agree to a point, and I looked at that. But on the flipside, can you honestly say that taking a guy like Trevor Pryce, Tiki Barber or - more recently - Mohamed Massaquoi or Andy Levitre wouldn't have made the team better?

There were guys available who would be better than Brown and would have filled needs. It would have just meant filling the other needs via different means.

[Highlandfire]

A while back I talked about things that make me nervous when they come up with the Panthers. Why? Because of history. Certain situations just haven't generally yielded good results for this team. As the draft draws nearer, those things start creeping into my head again.

Here are the ones that come to mind...

PICKING BETWEEN TWO PROSPECTS

When the Panthers have faced a choice between two draft prospects with similar grades, they've had an unfortunate tendency to pick the wrong one. Examples:

1995: Kerry Collins over Steve McNair

1996: Tshimanga Biakabutuka over Eddie George

1998: Jason Peter over Vonnie Holliday

2002: DeShaun Foster over Clinton Portis

2007: Dwayne Jarrett over Steve Smith (USC)

In fairness, they haven't always been wrong in this spot. Picking DeAngelo Williams over LenDale White in 2006 was definitely the right call. Likewise, the 2002 selection of Julius Peppers over QB Joey Harrington was the correct one. And you could argue that the recent choice of Jonathan Stewart over Rashard Mendenhall has panned out (though objectively, that argument isn't completely settled just yet).

Why is this a concern now? Because if the Panthers decide to take a quarterback, they'll likely be choosing between two guys, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. Which one is the wrong one? Don't know. I just hope whichever one it is, we don't take him.

CATCHING A FALLING STAR

Sometimes teams catch a break with a guy inexplicably falling in the draft. The Packers definitely lucked out with Aaron Rodgers, as did the Bills with Thurman Thomas. In Panthers history though? When a guy has fallen to them, they've tended to find out - a little too late - that there was a reason why he fell. The examples here:

1997: Rae Carruth falls to #27

Other Available Players: Trevor Price, Jamie Sharper, Tiki Barber, Derrick Mason

2000: Rashard Anderson falls to #23

Other Available Players: Ahmed Plummer, Chris Hovan, Anthony Becht, Jerry Porter, Jason Webster

2009: Everette Brown falls to #43

Other Available Players: Mohamed Massaquoi, Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy

2010: Jimmy Clausen falls to #48

Other Available Players: Taylor Mays, Javier Arenas, Carlos Dunlap

In fairness, Brown and Clausen still have a chance to show they can contribute under the new staff. And again, not every example is bad. Nobody expected Ryan Kalil to drop as far as he did, and the Panthers got a steal. Likewise, Greg Hardy has looked good (at least so far).

This year, there's not as much chance of this early unless the team trades down, way down. In the unlikely event that DaQuan Bowers lasts until our third round pick though, I'll probably be nervous.

TRADING AWAY HIGH PICKS

And here's the final area where history hasn't been kind. Let's go straight to the examples of what was traded, what was received, and what could have been:

1999 Draft

Redskins got: #5 Overall Pick, traded to Saints who got Ricky Williams.

Panthers got: Sean Gilbert

Could have had: Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, Chris McAllister, John Tait

2000 Draft

Redskins got: #12 pick, traded up to get Chris Samuels

Panthers got: This one also went for Gilbert

Could have had: John Abraham, Julian Peterson, Chad Pennington, Shaun Alexander

2008 Draft

Eagles got: #43 pick (traded to Minnesota, took DeSean Jackson at #59) and #109 pick, used on Mike McGlynn

Panthers got: #19 pick, used on Jeff Otah

Could have had: Jackson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice (2nd) Tashard Choice, Ryan Torrain, Tim Hightower, Owen Schmitt (4th)

2009 Draft

Eagles got: #28, traded up to get Jeremy Maclin

Panthers got: The other pick traded for Otah

Could have had: Ziggy Hood, James Laurinaitis, Brian Robiskie, LeSean McCoy

2010 Draft

49ers got: 2010 #17 pick, used to select Mike Iupati

Panthers got: 2009 #43, used to pick Everette Brown

Could have had: Maurkice Pouncey, Jermaine Gresham, Dan Williams, The Golden Calf of Bristol (if you're a The Golden Calf of Bristol fan)

2011 Draft

New England got: 2011 #33 pick overall, the top pick of the second round

Panthers got: 2010 #89, used to take Armanti Edwards

Could have had: yet to be determined

Now, what does everybody and their brother want the Panthers to do this year? Trade down. And yeah, I'm on that bandwagon too. Sadly though, when you look at who's been taken with some of the high picks that this team has traded away, and who they could have had if they'd kept those picks, it hurts.

It should be remembered that not all of this falls on Marty Hurney. Only things from 2002 forward are on him. As I've said before, I still have faith in Hurney. Plus, as the commercial disclaimer says, past history is not necessarily an indicator of future performance.

But it is still enough to make you nervous :(

Outstanding post. This is what happens when you turn to a former sports writer to be your GM. Richardson should have went a different direction when he lost Polian. And BTW that is two dumb ass owners that have done away with the best GM of our Generation.

That said, Trade down MUST be the move. We have too many needs, not one QB in this draft is going to have an immediate impact at all. We need to take the best offer that comes in period.

[Mr. Scot]

Hurney can only be blamed for roughly half of that (only the stuff from 2002 forward).

[Highlandfire]

Hurney can only be blamed for roughly half of that (only the stuff from 2002 forward).

Love him or hate him Polian is the greatest GM of our time. 4x superbowl Bills with a butt load of probowl/ HOF talent. Built a team from scratch that got us to the NFC championship in year 2. Built the Colts into what they have been for years now.

The teams he built have seen a ton of conference championships and 6 superbowls. I wish we still had him.

[Bj-Monster23]

It scares the poo out of me everyday. That we could take a bust. But that is something you are going to have to live with. If it was so easy to scout players then nobody would ever draft busts. But its a hard process and you win and lose sometimes. You cant be scared to take a chance but you also cant be stupid. You have to do what makes the most sense and that will make your team better.

I have faith in Rivera and Hurney. If they feel Patrick Peterson will be a better option then taking a Quarterback right now then do it. If they feel AJ Green would be a better pick then taking a Quarterback then they should do. And the same goes for Dareus or whoever maybe the potential pick. You just got to hope you make the right choice and that goes for all picks.

It could happen to anybody or any team.

[theyhateme45]

I'll still take Foster over Portis.... Foster was not a bad player or pick.... But like others have said you can do this for every single team in the NFL. At the end of the day the draft is a prediction, you never know what a player is going to do until it's time for him to do it.

[MadHatter]

I have a good feeling about this years draft, minus not having a 2nd round pick.

don't worry about that....we will get that 2nd round pick back when we trade down.:D

[whynot]

Its gonna be ok

[Mr. Scot]

don't worry about that....we will get that 2nd round pick back when we trade down.:D

Nervousness aside, that's still my preference.