Draft Nervousness

[MrBubba]

Given the Panthers luck, I think you can bank on Gabbert becoming a good if not great QB if the Panthers pass on him. Peterson, Green, and Dareus will be pro bowlers

[CarolinaCatBrigade]

Given the Panthers luck, I think you can bank on Gabbert becoming a good if not great QB if the Panthers pass on him. Peterson, Green, and Dareus will be pro bowlers

Yep, and we will be stuck with a sub-par rushing QB for 5 years.

[CRA]

I cringe thinking about all the research (from every team) that will go into getting that information.

lol, I left an important word out.

It was how does Marty 1st round selections stand up against other teams during this tenure.....

Marty pretty much has hit every one on the head in terms of talent. No team I can think of has been better in actual 1st round selections.

[Marguide]

Yep, and we will be stuck with a sub-par rushing QB for 5 years.

Between your avatar and your signature GIF, I can't hear a word you're saying ;)

[Mr. Scot]

I appreciate the sentiment and the work it took to make this post, but you could make this exact same argument for literally every team in every draft in the history of the league.

Not really.

Can you say that other teams have made bad choices? Sure. But picking a bad player in the draft is common to everyone, including us. So is picking a good one.

It's these specific situations that make me nervous, not a general feeling. Have other teams faced them? Yeah. Examples:

- Colts had to pick between Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams. They chose...wisely.

- Colts again, ditto that Manning vs Leaf thing.

- Texans picked Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Universally panned at the time, but who's laughing now?

- The Rams chose Sam Bradford when some would have suggested Jimmy Clausen was the best QB on the board. No arguments now.

We're definitely not alone in the "wrong choice" department though. Think San fran would like to have that Smith vs Rodgers pick over again? And the Browns picked between Courtney Brown and Lavar Arrington. Again...not so wise. Ditto that choice if Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb. The problem for us? Generally speaking we've got more in common with the bad teams in this area than the good ones.

Falling stars of prior drafts have included guys like Aaron Rodgers (Packers) Randy Moss (Vikings) Warren Sapp (Bucs) Dez Bryant (Cowboys) Thurman Thomas (Bills) and the ultimate faller, Tom Brady (Patriots). It's not like the Panthers have never had a steal in the draft, but taking fallers in the high rounds hasn't been good to us.

[countryboi]

i dont remember DJ and steve smith having the same grade....they way i heard it DJ was obviously the better of the two and steve smith was the robin to his batman..

[BountyHunter]

Remember these gems?

[Mr. Scot]

lol, I left an important word out.

It was how does Marty 1st round selections stand up against other teams during this tenure.....

Marty pretty much has hit every one on the head in terms of talent. No team I can think of has been better in actual 1st round selections.

Ah, but why has he hit? Take a look at the picks:

2010 - choice traded

2009 - choice traded

2008: RB, OT

2007: LB (after trading down)

2006: RB

2005: S (later turned into a LB)

2004: CB

2003: OT

2002: DE

What you don't see in there are any QBs, WRs or DTs. Analysts will tell you that Hurney has stuck to positions that tended to have a lower 'bust factor' in the first round. Add in that the majority of picks he's made have been in the middle to lower half of the first round. Only twice has he been in the top ten.

This year is a different situation than what we've been facing the last few.

I hope he gets it right, but again, I'm concerned.

[Carolina Husker]

Not really.

Can you say that other teams have made bad choices? Sure. But picking a bad player in the draft is common to everyone, including us. So is picking a good one.

It's these specific situations that make me nervous, not a general feeling. Have other teams faced them? Yeah. Examples:

- Colts had to pick between Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams. They chose...wisely.

- Colts again, ditto that Manning vs Leaf thing.

- Texans picked Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Universally panned at the time, but who's laughing now?

- The Rams chose Sam Bradford when some would have suggested Jimmy Clausen was the best QB on the board. No arguments now.

We're definitely not alone in the "wrong choice" department though. Think San fran would like to have that Smith vs Rodgers pick over again? And the Browns picked between Courtney Brown and Lavar Arrington. Again...not so wise. Ditto that choice if Tim Couch over Donovan McNabb. The problem for us? Generally speaking we've got more in common with the bad teams in this area than the good ones.

Falling stars of prior drafts have included guys like Aaron Rodgers (Packers) Randy Moss (Vikings) Warren Sapp (Bucs) Dez Bryant (Cowboys) Thurman Thomas (Bills) and the ultimate faller, Tom Brady (Patriots). It's not like the Panthers have never had a steal in the draft, but taking fallers in the high rounds hasn't been good to us.

Again, it's really easy to go back and say "oh wow they took player X when player Z was available?!? What a bad idea." And vice versa. You can do that, as I said, for every team in every era from now until the end of time. It's a pretty vapid argument to make at this point.

Also, as an aside, no one in their right mind thought Clausen was a better QB than Bradford by the time the draft rolled around.

[Mr. Scot]

Again, it's really easy to go back and say "oh wow they took player X when player Z was available?!? What a bad idea." And vice versa. You can do that, as I said, for every team in every era from now until the end of time. It's a pretty vapid argument to make at this point.

Also, no one in their right mind thought Clausen was a better QB than Bradford by the time the draft rolled around.

It is easy, but those choices have to be made, and this team has had an unfortunate tendency to make the wrong one.

Throw in that a couple of them have actually been avoided for us.

In 2006, the Panthers had Laurence Maroney higher on their draft board than DeAngelo Williams. They were saved from making that bad choice when the Patriots made an even worse one by trading up to take Maroney.

And in 2002, by Hurney's own admission, the name at the top of their draft board wasn't Julius Peppers. It was David Carr. Had the Panthers been in the #1 spot rather than #2 - which only happened because Houston was an expansion team - we'd have had "the gloved one" way sooner.

[Mr. Scot]

I will say this, though.

The overall draft results have been better since Don Gregory replaced Tony Softli as the head of college scouting (June of 2006).

We've still missed a time or two, but we haven't had disasters like the 2005 and 1998 drafts were.

[Real Emotional Trash]

How do the Jets NOT take Sapp? XD

[thecarolinaswagger]

A while back I talked about things that make me nervous when they come up with the Panthers. Why? Because of history. Certain situations just haven't generally yielded good results for this team. As the draft draws nearer, those things start creeping into my head again.

Here are the ones that come to mind...

PICKING BETWEEN TWO PROSPECTS

When the Panthers have faced a choice between two draft prospects with similar grades, they've had an unfortunate tendency to pick the wrong one. Examples:

1995: Kerry Collins over Steve McNair

1996: Tshimanga Biakabutuka over Eddie George

1998: Jason Peter over Vonnie Holliday

2002: DeShaun Foster over Clinton Portis

2007: Dwayne Jarrett over Steve Smith (USC)

In fairness, they haven't always been wrong in this spot. Picking DeAngelo Williams over LenDale White in 2006 was definitely the right call. Likewise, the 2002 selection of Julius Peppers over QB Joey Harrington was the correct one. And you could argue that the recent choice of Jonathan Stewart over Rashard Mendenhall has panned out (though objectively, that argument isn't completely settled just yet).

Why is this a concern now? Because if the Panthers decide to take a quarterback, they'll likely be choosing between two guys, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. Which one is the wrong one? Don't know. I just hope whichever one it is, we don't take him.

CATCHING A FALLING STAR

Sometimes teams catch a break with a guy inexplicably falling in the draft. The Packers definitely lucked out with Aaron Rodgers, as did the Bills with Thurman Thomas. In Panthers history though? When a guy has fallen to them, they've tended to find out - a little too late - that there was a reason why he fell. The examples here:

1997: Rae Carruth falls to #27

Other Available Players: Trevor Price, Jamie Sharper, Tiki Barber, Derrick Mason

2000: Rashard Anderson falls to #23

Other Available Players: Ahmed Plummer, Chris Hovan, Anthony Becht, Jerry Porter, Jason Webster

2009: Everette Brown falls to #43

Other Available Players: Mohamed Massaquoi, Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy

2010: Jimmy Clausen falls to #48

Other Available Players: Taylor Mays, Javier Arenas, Carlos Dunlap

In fairness, Brown and Clausen still have a chance to show they can contribute under the new staff. And again, not every example is bad. Nobody expected Ryan Kalil to drop as far as he did, and the Panthers got a steal. Likewise, Greg Hardy has looked good (at least so far).

This year, there's not as much chance of this early unless the team trades down, way down. In the unlikely event that DaQuan Bowers lasts until our third round pick though, I'll probably be nervous.

TRADING AWAY HIGH PICKS

And here's the final area where history hasn't been kind. Let's go straight to the examples of what was traded, what was received, and what could have been:

1999 Draft

Redskins got: #5 Overall Pick, traded to Saints who got Ricky Williams.

Panthers got: Sean Gilbert

Could have had: Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, Chris McAllister, John Tait

2000 Draft

Redskins got: #12 pick, traded up to get Chris Samuels

Panthers got: This one also went for Gilbert

Could have had: John Abraham, Julian Peterson, Chad Pennington, Shaun Alexander

2008 Draft

Eagles got: #43 pick (traded to Minnesota, took DeSean Jackson at #59) and #109 pick, used on Mike McGlynn

Panthers got: #19 pick, used on Jeff Otah

Could have had: Jackson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice (2nd) Tashard Choice, Ryan Torrain, Tim Hightower, Owen Schmitt (4th)

2009 Draft

Eagles got: #28, traded up to get Jeremy Maclin

Panthers got: The other pick traded for Otah

Could have had: Ziggy Hood, James Laurinaitis, Brian Robiskie, LeSean McCoy

2010 Draft

49ers got: 2010 #17 pick, used to select Mike Iupati

Panthers got: 2009 #43, used to pick Everette Brown

Could have had: Maurkice Pouncey, Jermaine Gresham, Dan Williams, The Golden Calf of Bristol (if you're a The Golden Calf of Bristol fan)

2011 Draft

New England got: 2011 #33 pick overall, the top pick of the second round

Panthers got: 2010 #89, used to take Armanti Edwards

Could have had: yet to be determined

Now, what does everybody and their brother want the Panthers to do this year? Trade down. And yeah, I'm on that bandwagon too. Sadly though, when you look at who's been taken with some of the high picks that this team has traded away, and who they could have had if they'd kept those picks, it hurts.

It should be remembered that not all of this falls on Marty Hurney. Only things from 2002 forward are on him. As I've said before, I still have faith in Hurney. Plus, as the commercial disclaimer says, past history is not necessarily an indicator of future performance.

But it is still enough to make you nervous :(

dude you are the biggest TOOL i have ever encountered on the world wide internet. your posts are always like a friggin book,with little substance in them other than your own opinions on EVERYTHING. opinions i might add that you think are FACT and the final word. everytime somebody disagrees with you, you same the same stupid sht like " only an idiot would think that" or "thats stupid". get a friggin life buddy.

[panthers55]

It is easy to look back and see where we could have done better or where we missed. Any team could do the same which could have any fan nervous.

But outside of the second round I am pretty happy with Hurney and thinks he does his best work in the 6th and seventh rounds.

Those hits make up for misses in the earlier rounds in my opinion. I was detailing Atlanta's hits and misses during the 2006-2008 range and it seems to me that we have more guys still on the squad than they do.

I think one of our issues historically has been a failure to land impactful free agents. We missed on some several years ago and largely abandoned the strategy.