Jr4's Mock v2.0 (surprising 1st pick)

[jramsey4]

Last time I went crazy with the trades a little but its more an indictment of the really lousy selection at the top 5-10 value/risk wise (which probably makes the trades unlikely). I love Newton and all but I just am not totally convinced he will be anything more then a VY type (on the field). Meaning a dual threat QB that is decent at passing but his main contribution would be to the running game, both directly and indirectly (VY/Vick Factor). Gabbert shouldn't even be in the conversation. And I don't think any WR is worth a pick that early (not even either of the Johnsons). It boils down to IMO either Newton or MD if we stay at #1 and that scares the living $*it out of me. Top 5 DT bust more then QB's.

In fact every single player has huge ? marks about them or they are not even remotely needed. All in all we picked a bad year to have a bad year. So once again I see myself having to trade down. For the mocks sake I will say it is a trade with the Cards (1st and 2nd) who are jonesing for a QB and the Cowboys (1st, 3rd, and 5th) who have been reported to want pp7 pretty bad and have a history of paying for guys they want.

9th Overall: JJ Watt DE Wisconsin

Huh?!? A DE not named Quinn or Bowers? Yes I like this kid. The best 5-technique in the draft (Mayock went so far as to call him the best hes ever seen coming out). Some might say we run a 4-3 but that is still left to be seen (RR has experience in both). What I see to be the most likely scenario is similar to what the Cards did the year they made a run at the SB, a hybrid system that uses both schemes. IMO he would be a good DE in a 4-3 scheme as well. He also could play on the inside on 2nd and 3rd downs.

He stands in at 6'5" and weighs 290 lbs. He is an outstanding athlete, 4.81 40 (1.64 10 yard), a 37" vert, a 10' broad jump, 34 bench press reps, and a 6.88 3 cone drill (to put that in perspective AJ Green put up 6.91). All of those numbers are better then MD, Fairley, and Bowers (albeit he only did the 40 and the bench). And he is only .03 of a second slower then the almighty (thats sarcasm) athlete of Quinn in the 10 yard split (while outscoring him in every other area including size and the 3 cone drill).

His stats are pretty impressive as well. In 2010 he recorded an outstanding 21 tackles for loss, 43 solo tackles (62 total), and 7 sacks. In 09 15.5 TFL, 4 sacks, and 53 total tackles.

Look at the 2.08 mark where he runs down Kaepernick and strips the ball.

37th overall: Jerrel Jernigan WR – Troy

Got to stick with Jernigan again here but Leonard Hankerson has me thinking twice about that if he falls to the 2nd. Jernigan is a Playmaker short and sweet of it, the guy makes plays. Good, not elite timed speed, but speed where it counts. Catches passes while running at full speed, doesn't have to gear down to focus on the ball. Former quarterback, understands defenses and is good at finding soft spots in zone coverage. He is very hard to bring down. He breaks tackles better then any WR I can recall (outside of Smith of course).*

Smith isn't getting any younger and might even be traded. Jernigan is a guy that would be perfect in the slot year 1 and work into Smiths role in a year or 2. A young QB can just dump it off and let him go to town.

3rd round: Pick 1 – Jordan Cameron TE USC

I said it last year with Jimmy Graham (who looked like a stud with the Saints) this guy will be a good one. He is like Gates V3.0 (with Graham being v2.0), a great athletic BB player with little exp at Football turned TE. Only had 1 td and a 138 yards at USC last year. But neither Graham nor Gates did much in college. Were the separate themselves is on the specs sheet. He stands in at 6'5” and weighs 250lbs while still running a 4.53 40 (to put that in perspective Green ran a 4.48 while being 40 lbs lighter and an inch shorter). His others? How about putting up 225 23 times, clocking a 6.82 3 cone (once again Green had a 6.91), a 4.03 20 yard shuttle (Green 4.21), 37.5” Vert (Green 35” and an inch shorter), and had a 10' broad jump. Can you say ATHLETE?

[jramsey4]

7th round: Comp: Dion Lewis RB – Pitt

I know I know a RB but I can't help it the guy has so much much talent and I can't believe he is rated this low. Strong for his size (short I know at 5'7” 193 lbs), reportedly can bench press 400 pounds (thats twice his body weight). He reminds me of Maurice-Jones Drew very low center of gravity. He might be a mouse but hes mighty mouse. Even there sizes coming out are similar (MJD was 5'6.6” 207, Lewis was 5'6.5” and 193 hes 14 lbs lighter but same height besides he probably played a little heavier and lost weight to look better at the combine).*

He is very quick in the open field will makes guys miss. Patient runner with great field vision. Can catch out of the backfield. He put up better numbers then the guy who cam before him, McCoy who is a good NFL RB. Was absolutely dominating as a freshman racking up almost 1800 yards and 17 Tds. He is a hard worker and falling this far would give him a chip on his shoulder that would be the size of a small house.

Dwill is probably not coming back and Sutton is ok but Lewis is going to be a stud. I don't care about his height or his 40 time all I know is what I see on tape the guy has wheels. And being that short at RB didn't seem to bother MJD. BTW can anyone tell me how he can declare while being a true sophomore?

Recap:

1st: JJ Watt DE

2nd: J. Jernigan WR

3rd: J. Cameron TE

3rd: R. Stanzi QB

3rd: J. Brewer RT/RG

4th: J. Jenkins DT

5th: A. Henry P/K

5th: B. Skrine CB

6th: A. Gray NT

6th: S. Lutrus OLB

7th: D. Lewis RB

[JawnyBlaze]

Well, we only have one 7th round comp pick, not two and we don't have our original 7th round pick at all-Green Bay has it.

Some might say we run a 4-3 but that is still left to be seen (RR has experience in both).

Rivera has said point blank that he's keeping this a 4-3 team. I wouldn't be surprised if there were 3-4 looks every now and then (Fox did the same thing) but it won't be often enough to use our first pick on someone for that scheme...in a 4-3 JJ Watt is Tyler Brayton.

[Delhommey]

There is a better chance that Jerry Richardson ends the lockout by offering players 80% of the revenue than someone trades into the # 1 spot to take a corner.

[JawnyBlaze]

His trade into the #1 spot was for Newton or someone, the second trade with Dallas was for Peterson at #7...as far as I understood it anyway...

[jramsey4]

His trade into the #1 spot was for Newton or someone, the second trade with Dallas was for Peterson at #7...as far as I understood it anyway...

Correct except it was the 5th from the Cards for the 9th of the Cowgirls. And before I get pounced on by some idiot who can't read I also said trading out of the #1 would be unlikely because of how crappy the top 5 choses are.

[jramsey4]

Well, we only have one 7th round comp pick, not two and we don't have our original 7th round pick at all-Green Bay has it.

Rivera has said point blank that he's keeping this a 4-3 team. I wouldn't be surprised if there were 3-4 looks every now and then (Fox did the same thing) but it won't be often enough to use our first pick on someone for that scheme...in a 4-3 JJ Watt is Tyler Brayton.

My mistake on the comp picks if that is the case, I could have sworn I saw we were due 2 7ths. Did you even read the rest of that post? I said the most likely option was a hybrid system with looks from both. And the only thing Brayton did better (combine wise) was a better 40 (and yet .02 seconds slower in the 10 yard). Watt is a better athlete and was more productive (Brayton only had 4 more TFL (25 in his career) then Watt had just in 2010 and that was in 4 years). He would be be a damn good DE even in a 4-3 but he also could be elite at the 5 tech allowing RR to do as he so choses. He also could be a force in the interior at UT.

I would go so far as to say he compares better to Peppers then Brayton. Pep was an inch taller but they had similar weights (283 Pep and 290 Watt), arm length (34.5" Pep and 34" Watt), verts (36" Pep and 37" Watt) even similar 10 yard dash (1.65 Pep and 1.64 Watt). Pep had a 5" longer Broad jump, but Watt put up 12 more reps then Pep, and I couldn't find Pep's 3 cone (which to me is Watt's most intriguing measurement).

Does this mean I think he is the next Peppers? No but he could be a damn good strongside DE even in a 4-3 and he would allow us some scheme versatility. IMO he is well worth the 9th overall pick when your options at #1 (DE and DT) aren't even that much better.

[jramsey4]

I figured out the comp picks screw up. We actually get a 3rd (67) a 6th (203) and a 7th (243).

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/03/25/compensatory-picks-awarded-panthers-lead-with-thre

[JawnyBlaze]

My mistake on the comp picks if that is the case, I could have sworn I saw we were due 2 7ths. Did you even read the rest of that post? I said the most likely option was a hybrid system with looks from both. And the only thing Brayton did better (combine wise) was a better 40 (and yet .02 seconds slower in the 10 yard). Watt is a better athlete and was more productive (Brayton only had 4 more TFL (25 in his career) then Watt had just in 2010 and that was in 4 years). He would be be a damn good DE even in a 4-3 but he also could be elite at the 5 tech allowing RR to do as he so choses. He also could be a force in the interior at UT.

I would go so far as to say he compares better to Peppers then Brayton. Pep was an inch taller but they had similar weights (283 Pep and 290 Watt), arm length (34.5" Pep and 34" Watt), verts (36" Pep and 37" Watt) even similar 10 yard dash (1.65 Pep and 1.64 Watt). Pep had a 5" longer Broad jump, but Watt put up 12 more reps then Pep, and I couldn't find Pep's 3 cone (which to me is Watt's most intriguing measurement).

Does this mean I think he is the next Peppers? No but he could be a damn good strongside DE even in a 4-3 and he would allow us some scheme versatility. IMO he is well worth the 9th overall pick when your options at #1 (DE and DT) aren't even that much better.

Yea, I read the whole post. Rivera said we're running the 4-3. Not a hybrid. The 4-3. And if you're judging SOLELY on measurables, sure he could be the next Peppers. I wasn't comparing Watt and Brayton's combines, I was comparing their play styles. I think Brayton was a fine 4-3 DE when he was a bit younger. He wasn't a sack machine, but he was a good LE, stuffing the run, playing containment. That's what I think Watt would be in the NFL if he went to a 4-3 team.

In my opinion, even Nick Fairley would be a better option than Watt and he could very well be available at #9 (and if you've noticed my posts at all in the past few months, you know I am strongly against drafting Fairley). Dareus at #1 would be much better value than Watt at #9. I'd even rather have Quinn at #1 because at least he's scheme appropriate and arguably a top player at his position.

If we're picking at #9, players I see that could be options that I'd rather we drafted would be Julio Jones, Prince Amukamara, Quinn could last that long if we're actually looking at DEs, Cam Jordan is similar to Watt but has the edge over him in my opinion, Cam Newton could even still be available. But if we're trading back to 9, we might as well trade back to the teens if possible. We're already not getting a top player at his position, might as well pick up some more picks if we're picking from the 2nd tier already. Players in the middle we could look at are Pouncy or an OT, Jimmy Smith or Brandon Harris (SecondCityPanther would say Harris is the steal of the century in the mid teens), Corey Liuget, even Daquan Bowers in the teens would be appropriate (a bad combine shouldn't drop him the the end of the first round....I was never that high on him but he still belongs in the top half of the first round unless teams know/heavily suspect his injury problem will continue), Marvin Austin would have been a top 5 or 10 if not for the suspension and this just means he has even more tread on his tires, even Kyle Rudolph or Ryan Mallet (or whatever of the 2nd tier QBs you prefer) would benefit the team more. However, my preference is not to trade out of the top 5 at all. I'd love to have Dareus, Green, Peterson and I'd accept having Newton/Gabbert if those three are gone.

And I'm not saying I think Watt will be a bad player or anything, but it's just that after sitting through a 2-14 season to have the top fruits of that disaster be JJ Watt? A guy who most agree isn't even a fit for our defense?? If it were to happen I'd support the guy and hope he proves everyone but you wrong and turns into a great 4-3 DE but I wouldn't bet on it.

I do like some of the other picks, like I said I like Jordan Cameron and Ricky Stanzi (even if the 3rd might be a bit too high for Cameron), I like Henerey (5th might be a round too late, might have to use our 4th on him), Jenkins in the 4th is a good value pick-I'd be happy with that (still want Powe or one of the top 2 or 3 behemoths somewhere in this area too). Most of the others I just don't know a lot on. I've read good things about James Brewer, but I don't remember where he's projected at off the top of my head. He'd be a good addition regardless.

Just saying my opinion doesn't line up with yours, it's all good. No one really knows anything about how they'll be in the NFL yet. Watt could end up the greatest DE of all time and the biggest steal of this draft. So could some guy that gets drafted in the 5th round.

[jramsey4]

Yea, I read the whole post. Rivera said we're running the 4-3. Not a hybrid. The 4-3. And if you're judging SOLELY on measurables, sure he could be the next Peppers. I wasn't comparing Watt and Brayton's combines, I was comparing their play styles. I think Brayton was a fine 4-3 DE when he was a bit younger. He wasn't a sack machine, but he was a good LE, stuffing the run, playing containment. That's what I think Watt would be in the NFL if he went to a 4-3 team.

In my opinion, even Nick Fairley would be a better option than Watt and he could very well be available at #9 (and if you've noticed my posts at all in the past few months, you know I am strongly against drafting Fairley). Dareus at #1 would be much better value than Watt at #9. I'd even rather have Quinn at #1 because at least he's scheme appropriate and arguably a top player at his position.

If we're picking at #9, players I see that could be options that I'd rather we drafted would be Julio Jones, Prince Amukamara, Quinn could last that long if we're actually looking at DEs, Cam Jordan is similar to Watt but has the edge over him in my opinion, Cam Newton could even still be available. But if we're trading back to 9, we might as well trade back to the teens if possible. We're already not getting a top player at his position, might as well pick up some more picks if we're picking from the 2nd tier already. Players in the middle we could look at are Pouncy or an OT, Jimmy Smith or Brandon Harris (SecondCityPanther would say Harris is the steal of the century in the mid teens), Corey Liuget, even Daquan Bowers in the teens would be appropriate (a bad combine shouldn't drop him the the end of the first round....I was never that high on him but he still belongs in the top half of the first round unless teams know/heavily suspect his injury problem will continue), Marvin Austin would have been a top 5 or 10 if not for the suspension and this just means he has even more tread on his tires, even Kyle Rudolph or Ryan Mallet (or whatever of the 2nd tier QBs you prefer) would benefit the team more. However, my preference is not to trade out of the top 5 at all. I'd love to have Dareus, Green, Peterson and I'd accept having Newton/Gabbert if those three are gone.

And I'm not saying I think Watt will be a bad player or anything, but it's just that after sitting through a 2-14 season to have the top fruits of that disaster be JJ Watt? A guy who most agree isn't even a fit for our defense?? If it were to happen I'd support the guy and hope he proves everyone but you wrong and turns into a great 4-3 DE but I wouldn't bet on it.

I do like some of the other picks, like I said I like Jordan Cameron and Ricky Stanzi (even if the 3rd might be a bit too high for Cameron), I like Henerey (5th might be a round too late, might have to use our 4th on him), Jenkins in the 4th is a good value pick-I'd be happy with that (still want Powe or one of the top 2 or 3 behemoths somewhere in this area too). Most of the others I just don't know a lot on. I've read good things about James Brewer, but I don't remember where he's projected at off the top of my head. He'd be a good addition regardless.

Just saying my opinion doesn't line up with yours, it's all good. No one really knows anything about how they'll be in the NFL yet. Watt could end up the greatest DE of all time and the biggest steal of this draft. So could some guy that gets drafted in the 5th round.

Thank you for that. Most people on here think they know everything and that if your opinion differs from theres you are an idiot. Personally I like Watt as a 4-3 RE and my biggest beef was the Brayton comparison. I see Watt as a much better prospect. But as you said to each his own. In my 1st mock I actually had us trading back to the teens and picking up Pouncey.

I really don't like a team picking up a WR this early. They rarely ever live up to the media hype. Remember Micheal Crabtree? Supposed to be a beast. Even those that do live up to the hype (at least relatively), for instance Bryant last year, there usually is a guy or 2 taken after them that turns out better and even if they do become stars, WR really doesn't matter as much as you would think (how many playoff games have the Lions (CJ) or the Texans (AJ) won or even been to). I am fine with taking one in the 2nd half of the 1st but not before then. Green I want no part of but I would be fine with Jones even though I never would pick him (hes a little too inconsistent for my liking). Somebody teams really should be taking a long hard look at is Hankerson from Miami. I think he'll end up being the guy we look back at and wonder why he went after Green and Jones.

As far as Cameron the only reason I took him in the 3rd is that Graham and him are so similar and he went in the 3rd round last year. Doesn't mean Cameron will but considering just how good an athlete he is I would rather be safe then sorry. The NFL has become wise to the super athletic TE.

[Jackofalltrades]

No chance at drafting Watt or any other 5 tech, especially on the first.

We're a 43, we're staying that way.

[jramsey4]

No chance at drafting Watt or any other 5 tech, especially on the first.

We're a 43, we're staying that way.

You do realize Wisconsin plays in a 4-3? I don't get why people think he couldn't in the NFL. He has the athleticism (he's one of the most agile Dlineman in the draft) and the long arms teams love and he has a non-stop motor. I mean if its only because hes 6'5 and 290 lbs we didn't seem to mind Hardy looking like a beast last year (6'4" 281) and no I'm not comparing them just they have similar size. I never should have mentioned him being a 5 tech but I love a guy that gives us scheme versatility. He could play DE, UT, and if we so chose the 5 tech.

Besides just about every other guy that will be around has been discussed ad nauseum just thinking outside the box. I would rather do what I did in my 1st mock and get Pouncy in the late teens.

[JawnyBlaze]

It's not just his measurables that have people thinking 5 tech. He might have the motor, but he just doesn't seem to have the first step. He's stronger than he is quick, which points to 5 tech.

[TerriblePizza]

I like this all but our top pick. If we trade down, we need to take a position of need. DT is a MUST if we trade down.