Statistical Analyses of Newton and Gabbert

[Millions]

IMHO, All these comparisons to Vince Young are not a bad thing as long as its not saying Cam has his attitude or brains. Vince would be a great QB if he just didn't have his attitude issues and he wasn't dumb as a brick (scored 7 on the wonderlic I think).

Agreed 100% although I don't see him as another VY more Big Ben/Freeman.

[Mr. Scot]

There's way too much you can't predict with stats.

[Stumpy]

Out of all those guys how many have one a Super Bowl. Mcnabb is the only one who has even been to a SB.

Not true, Orton has been to one, he was just on the bench the whole time. :D

In his top 13 the QB's have a combined 9 SB rings. And his scale only went back to 98 with Manning/Leaf so 9 of the last 12 SB winners are in his top 13.

His system is not perfect he said so his self, but it is fairly accurate. I mean most GM's would kill to have a 70% success rate.

Eight of the nine Super Bowl rings among his "top 13" come from the 6 QBs he set up the system around. The ninth came from sitting on the bench. Out of the 7 other "top QBs" you have 2 pro bowl players with a combined 3 pro bowl appearances.

Out of his bust list, you have 8 pro bowl QBs with a combined 16 appearances.

[Urrymonster]

The following is directly from the site.

Cam Newton Overall Score = 0.889 (see historical rating chart via link below)

Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Currently Newton is above our "magic" 0.850 score, projecting to a good/great NFL QB potentially. Again, that is with a average Wonderlic score plugged in. If Newton produces a bad Wonderlic score, it will throw him down to just another exciting college QB -- like it did to Vince Young in our system and (to a lesser degree) The Golden Calf of Bristol. An above average score is going to keep Newton with the high quality group.

Well done. Very clever of you.

Now re-read it. He is projecting him with an average wonderlic, which gives him a good rating and thus a better prospect than Young.

If you remove the wonderlic aspect of the equation, they grade out almost identically. Thus giving them incredibly similar grades.

Thus if Newton scores a similar wonderlic, then that will complete the statistical comparison.

[TheRealDeal]

Pro Bowls =/= Good way to measure success

[Marguide]

The following is directly from the site.

Cam Newton Overall Score = 0.889 (see historical rating chart via link below)

Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Currently Newton is above our "magic" 0.850 score, projecting to a good/great NFL QB potentially. Again, that is with a average Wonderlic score plugged in. If Newton produces a bad Wonderlic score, it will throw him down to just another exciting college QB -- like it did to Vince Young in our system and (to a lesser degree) The Golden Calf of Bristol. An above average score is going to keep Newton with the high quality group.

Well done. Very clever of you.

Now re-read it. He is projecting him with an average wonderlic, which gives him a good rating and thus a better prospect than Young.

If you remove the wonderlic aspect of the equation, they grade out almost identically. Thus giving them incredibly similar grades.

Thus if Newton scores a similar wonderlic, then that will complete the statistical comparison.

It's not being clever. I am just pointing out exactly what the guy said. See the bolded part above.

Is there some part of this that isn't clear?

[TheRealDeal]

So a "bad" score sends him to bust levels, "above average" sends him to high quality, where does average land him?

[Marguide]

So a "bad" score sends him to bust levels, "above average" sends him to high quality, where does average land him?

Its a good thing the guy who wrote this is a statistician, because he can't write worth sh#t. It is confusing and easy to see how people could mis-interpret it.

His score is like .89. That assumes an average Wonderlic. Because its above his .85 "good/great" threshold, Cam is in that group.

A higher than average score puts him higher, probably somewhere over 1.0.

A bad score moves him to VY territory.

[TheRealDeal]

So he's already good but an above average score could make him gooder?

[Marguide]

So he's already good but an above average score could make him gooder?

It could take him all the way up to "the bestest" category :)

[Ricky Spanish]

Its a good thing the guy who wrote this is a statistician, because he can't write worth sh#t. It is confusing and easy to see how people could mis-interpret it.

His score is like .89. That assumes an average Wonderlic. Because its above his .85 "good/great" threshold, Cam is in that group.

A higher than average score puts him higher, probably somewhere over 1.0.

A bad score moves him to VY territory.

i thought they gave him an average score of 25 on the wonderlic because they didn't know what he got. with that 25 or above he is "more gooder" and with a 24 or lower he is "more worser"

[jramsey4]

I would say if Cam had scored more then a 25 it would have "Leaked" by now. On the flip side it probably would have leaked if it was really low as well. I would guess mid to upper teens.

[Marguide]

i thought they gave him an average score of 25 on the wonderlic because they didn't know what he got. with that 25 or above he is "more gooder" and with a 24 or lower he is "more worser"

Eggzactly.

[Mr. Scot]

I would say if Cam had scored more then a 25 it would have "Leaked" by now. On the flip side it probably would have leaked if it was really low as well. I would guess mid to upper teens.

Probably also depends on whose agent gets hold of it.