Interesting new "method to predict QB success"

[JawnyBlaze]

Interesting article, take it how you will.

http://www.derp/2011/3/6/2033189/best-qb-in-2011-draft-get-ready-because-this-will-blow-your-mind#storyjump

[Cyberjag]

As I posted over there, you might want to consider this before anointing Tony Pike as our new starter. Clausen wasn't rated on this guy's charts--he hasn't run the numbers for him. But if he did, then Jimmy would enjoy the following rankings on the guy's big board:

Comp% 67.9 (4th overall)

Equalized Yds/Game 428 (1st overall)

Equalized TD/game 2.4 (8th overall)

Equalized Int/game 0.3 (5th overall)

I reckon that the wonderlic would have given him a red flag, and possibly his hand size. But he should comfortably make the leader board based on those stats, and certainly be above Pike.

Still, interesting stuff.

[JawnyBlaze]

Oh, I wasn't implying Pike should be our new starter. If he could put on some muscle and throw a football more than 15 yards he'd have a shot. I was more interested in how well Stanzi did in his formula. Stanzi is a guy we could probably nab with our comp pick, if we wanted.

[Cyberjag]

I think if we take a rookie QB it needs to be in the first round. But I'll probably end up supporting whatever the front office does. :)

[Urrymonster]

As nice as the data is, he really needs to flesh out his historical data first. 60 QBs is far too small a data sample considering we have at least 32 playing each and every year. The general ideas are good and I always support reasoned statistical analysis, so it would be interesting if he actually is going to expand the data.

[JawnyBlaze]

I mostly agree, I don't think you can rely on trying to find a franchise QB outside of the 1st. I just really don't like Gabbert and Cam has been slipping in my eyes since shortly before the combine. I'd rather we don't chase that franchise QB this year and get a Palmer or whoever vet to handle the reins for a couple years. BUT if we do get Gabbert or Newton, I'd definitely be hoping for their success and hope their situation is much better this year than our rookie QB last year.

I think if we take a rookie QB it needs to be in the first round. But I'll probably end up supporting whatever the front office does. :)

[teeray]

read this. pretty interesting

[Rhys]

As I posted over there, you might want to consider this before anointing Tony Pike as our new starter. Clausen wasn't rated on this guy's charts--he hasn't run the numbers for him. But if he did, then Jimmy would enjoy the following rankings on the guy's big board:

Comp% 67.9 (4th overall)

Equalized Yds/Game 428 (1st overall)

Equalized TD/game 2.4 (8th overall)

Equalized Int/game 0.3 (5th overall)

I reckon that the wonderlic would have given him a red flag, and possibly his hand size. But he should comfortably make the leader board based on those stats, and certainly be above Pike.

Still, interesting stuff.

Are you sure? You may be counting data that he disregards in his formula. He dumps a lot of ridiculous games, and games against opponents with losing records. Plus, a single red flag can knock a kid down out of the .900 range.

[ItsNotGonnaBeAlright]

Update in the article

UPDATE: I sent an e-mail to R. C. Fischer to ensure he had no problem with my posting his results so far. I received the following response this afternoon (I highlighted certain relevant comments):

[jramsey4]

Really made Stanzi look good he scored off the charts. After a bad combine he could be a UDFA signing if he makes it that far.

[mav1234]

Interesting stuff, but any time you use the stats of existing great players and awful players in order to build a system, it should show you that the greats are greats and the awfuls are awful. Still pretty interesting though.

It is interesting that his system "predicted" Leinart would fail, considering I always felt the issues with Leinart were less in something you could measure statistically and more with his commitment to the game.

[firstdayfan]

All I'm saying is that this data further shows that Alex Smith may be out best option for next season. He hasn't had much in San Fran and he's a free agent. Yeah he could be another David Carr...and generally QB's don't typically excell when they move on to new teams but I think it's worth a chance. At worst he could be a capable backup.

[Cyberjag]

Are you sure? You may be counting data that he disregards in his formula. He dumps a lot of ridiculous games, and games against opponents with losing records. Plus, a single red flag can knock a kid down out of the .900 range.

I threw out the games against losers. What can knock him down are his wonderlic and hand size. But he didn't knock down Pike for being a skeleton, so I don't know how hard he would get nailed. I also don't know how he would weight the different games, most of them are against teams with 8-5 records, he had a 10-3 and a 10-4 in there too.

[Cyberjag]

All I'm saying is that this data further shows that Alex Smith may be out best option for next season. He hasn't had much in San Fran and he's a free agent. Yeah he could be another David Carr...and generally QB's don't typically excell when they move on to new teams but I think it's worth a chance. At worst he could be a capable backup.

Alex Smith had three different offensive coordinators in his first three seasons. That can't have helped...