Interesting new "method to predict QB success"

[firstdayfan]

Alex Smith had three different offensive coordinators in his first three seasons. That can't have helped...

He was actually starting to turn things around when norv turner was his qb coach. Maybe chud could get him in the same groove. I'd rather have him than Carson Palmer...at least smith is still relatively young.

[Cyberjag]

Meh... I think Clausen has the same chance to be good and turn things around as Smith.

[teeray]

Alex Smith??? Guys we are going to have to come to grips with the fact that if we want to become relevant we are going to have to fix the QB position through the first round of the draft.

Not necessarily this year. But it won't get fixed until we make that plunge.

[Mother Grabber]

If nothing else, it justifies taking a stab at Stanzi with a second day pick.

[jramsey4]

Man Newton is going to blow this equation out of the water. He had a 9.6 pass attempts per TD and played good against good teams.

[House]

So this dude in a leotard just knocked on my door and tried to eat my dog with a Bic and 2 spoons.

[KaseKlosed]

Alex Smith had three different offensive coordinators in his first three seasons. That can't have helped...

they finally figured out Alex Smith was the problem and not the coaches:rolleyes:

[Cyberjag]

they finally figured out Alex Smith was the problem and not the coaches:rolleyes:

Jason Campbell had nine OCs in his first 10 years, and the reason for his failure to dominate has been the coaches and not the player, right? :)

Back on topic, I think this analysis must have a large subjective element to it. If you look at a guy like The Golden Calf of Bristol, and at his stats, they're pretty gaudy at the college level. Certainly better than Manning's were, and they were both in the SEC. So how is he at 45 while Manning is at 4?

[Catalyst]

Jason Campbell was drafted in 2005...

[Mr. Scot]

It's definitely interesting. Not perfect, but interesting. I'd like to know what his system would have predicted for guys like Timmy Chang, Colt Brennan and Tim Couch.

Math nerd though I may be, I'm always very hesitant to rely too much on mathematical data when it comes to predicting QB success (kind of a "chicken or egg" thing).

College and Pro are different worlds, and there's a lot that stats can't predict. For example...

- How he transitions from being a student who plays ball to being a working professional

- How he deals with sudden fame, loads of money and no one watching over him

- How he relates to an influx of new "friends" and "long lost family" hanging around (and hanging on)

- How quickly he'll be able to pick up a new offensive system and adjust to the speed of the game

- How he handles the adversity that will inevitably find him

- Whether he's able to lead grown men as opposed to college kids

- Will his body be able to take the pounding that a pro quarterback takes

Stats won't tell you any of those things, and there's plenty more where that came from.

So in the end, it's cool to read, but math has limitations when it comes to predicting behavior.

[nagai]

What an awesome article! I was hoping for more info on the QB's in the draft, but at least he's working on it! Gotta keep an eye on this one.

PS. Tony Pike? Uh oh.

Edit: Just read the other articles. Waiting for Cam's, obviously. And Ricky Stanzi huh?

[Catalyst]

Interested to see Newton & Gabbert's evaluation here.

[JawnyBlaze]

They already did Gabbert, not Newton though:

NFL Draft 2011: Statistical Analysis of Blaine Gabbert, the Likely Bust QB

The QB Blaine Gabbert most compares to statistically...Matt Leinart

It's great that Gabbert looks the part and many love that about a QB, but just like Leinart looked the part (and also fell further than people had thought he would in the Draft) and flopped in the NFL...I think the same could happen with Gabbert, according to the numbers.

Interested to see Newton & Gabbert's evaluation here.

[Catalyst]

Ahhh... didn't see that.