Jump to content
  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

Interesting new "method to predict QB success"


JawnyBlaze

Recommended Posts

As I posted over there, you might want to consider this before anointing Tony Pike as our new starter. Clausen wasn't rated on this guy's charts--he hasn't run the numbers for him. But if he did, then Jimmy would enjoy the following rankings on the guy's big board:

Comp% 67.9 (4th overall)

Equalized Yds/Game 428 (1st overall)

Equalized TD/game 2.4 (8th overall)

Equalized Int/game 0.3 (5th overall)

I reckon that the wonderlic would have given him a red flag, and possibly his hand size. But he should comfortably make the leader board based on those stats, and certainly be above Pike.

Still, interesting stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, I wasn't implying Pike should be our new starter. If he could put on some muscle and throw a football more than 15 yards he'd have a shot. I was more interested in how well Stanzi did in his formula. Stanzi is a guy we could probably nab with our comp pick, if we wanted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As nice as the data is, he really needs to flesh out his historical data first. 60 QBs is far too small a data sample considering we have at least 32 playing each and every year. The general ideas are good and I always support reasoned statistical analysis, so it would be interesting if he actually is going to expand the data.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mostly agree, I don't think you can rely on trying to find a franchise QB outside of the 1st. I just really don't like Gabbert and Cam has been slipping in my eyes since shortly before the combine. I'd rather we don't chase that franchise QB this year and get a Palmer or whoever vet to handle the reins for a couple years. BUT if we do get Gabbert or Newton, I'd definitely be hoping for their success and hope their situation is much better this year than our rookie QB last year.

I think if we take a rookie QB it needs to be in the first round. But I'll probably end up supporting whatever the front office does. :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I posted over there, you might want to consider this before anointing Tony Pike as our new starter. Clausen wasn't rated on this guy's charts--he hasn't run the numbers for him. But if he did, then Jimmy would enjoy the following rankings on the guy's big board:

Comp% 67.9 (4th overall)

Equalized Yds/Game 428 (1st overall)

Equalized TD/game 2.4 (8th overall)

Equalized Int/game 0.3 (5th overall)

I reckon that the wonderlic would have given him a red flag, and possibly his hand size. But he should comfortably make the leader board based on those stats, and certainly be above Pike.

Still, interesting stuff.

Are you sure? You may be counting data that he disregards in his formula. He dumps a lot of ridiculous games, and games against opponents with losing records. Plus, a single red flag can knock a kid down out of the .900 range.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting stuff, but any time you use the stats of existing great players and awful players in order to build a system, it should show you that the greats are greats and the awfuls are awful. Still pretty interesting though.

It is interesting that his system "predicted" Leinart would fail, considering I always felt the issues with Leinart were less in something you could measure statistically and more with his commitment to the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I'm saying is that this data further shows that Alex Smith may be out best option for next season. He hasn't had much in San Fran and he's a free agent. Yeah he could be another David Carr...and generally QB's don't typically excell when they move on to new teams but I think it's worth a chance. At worst he could be a capable backup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are you sure? You may be counting data that he disregards in his formula. He dumps a lot of ridiculous games, and games against opponents with losing records. Plus, a single red flag can knock a kid down out of the .900 range.

I threw out the games against losers. What can knock him down are his wonderlic and hand size. But he didn't knock down Pike for being a skeleton, so I don't know how hard he would get nailed. I also don't know how he would weight the different games, most of them are against teams with 8-5 records, he had a 10-3 and a 10-4 in there too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I'm saying is that this data further shows that Alex Smith may be out best option for next season. He hasn't had much in San Fran and he's a free agent. Yeah he could be another David Carr...and generally QB's don't typically excell when they move on to new teams but I think it's worth a chance. At worst he could be a capable backup.

Alex Smith had three different offensive coordinators in his first three seasons. That can't have helped...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • i think i go in the opposite direction of most. my ideal retirement is living in some old downtown area in a flat above some shop or something.  life out in the country was just something i got real tired of. My kids actually miss some of living out there, which i understand. that was where they grew up for the most part. 40 acres with a 2.5 acre pond. it was beautiful, but also way too much (and too expensive) for me to keep up with. 
    • FLASHBACK: I remember back when ESPN was just starting--he was their anchor.  They used to show stuff like Rodeo and field hockey--I remember laughing when he went to a commercial mocking a cycling competition in Utah (or something similar--I made that up) and I laughed.  I told my dad, "We may have us a new anchor when we get back from commercial."  When they came back from commercial, Berman was looking very serious and he said, "Any comments by me do not reflect the views of ESPN....The men and women who cycle are dedicated athletes and we are honored to shine light on their sport." (Paraphrasing).  Dad laughed hysterically. My first memory of him--and that was like 1980.
    • Might not have a team without them. Although that probably applies to the Panthers, too.
×
×
  • Create New...