Drafting a QB #1 is a Smokescreen

[monstercat]

you're right, no one is going to manipulate any team.. but if I'm a Panther GM, I would find it beneficial to put a few anonymous quotes out there to push an agenda..

it may be ineffective, but it also may tip the scale a bit..

I think you're viewing this "smoke screen" talk much more forceful than intended..

there is no brain washing or manipulation intended.. but pushing and prodding those who may be teetering could prove beneficial..

But wouldn't they accomplish the same thing by not talking at all? If nobody knows who the Panthers are thinking about picking, and cartain team really want a certain player bad enough, then they will contact the Panthers and ask what it will take to move up, right? Are they really gonna offer more bacause of some blurb in the media?

[riddel]

OK then. Explain to me how the Panthers are going to manipulate somebody into trading up to #1 for a player they don't already like anyway.

Buffalo 3, Cincy 4 and Zona 5 need a Qb. If we convince Buffalo that we may take a Qb or if Cincy or Zona covets Cam more than Buffalo, then they may move up. There are tons of senerios, but I just don't believe the Panther's are really considering drafting a Qb #1. I think they will let the everyone think they are, but I don't think they will and any interest they are showing is only to incourage another team to move up and trade for the #1 pick.

That was my opinion and nothing more.

[bleys]

But wouldn't they accomplish the same thing by not talking at all? If nobody knows who the Panthers are thinking about picking, and cartain team really want a certain player bad enough, then they will contact the Panthers and ask what it will take to move up, right? Are they really gonna offer more bacause of some blurb in the media?

here's the kicker... they are being silent and putting out anonymous promotions for Cam.. (hypothetically, because we don't know)

we don't know.. that's why it's a smoke screen. you can't see who is who.

but to be absolutely silent means you are putting everything in fates hands, when it does absolutely NO HARM to try to dictate what little you can.

also, it's human nature to want what other people want.. sure our IQ can over come this, but just like athletes, FO's are looking for any little edge they can.

so to me, it isn't as ludicrous as some people think.. there's no harm in trying, right?

also, by no means am I saying the FO is using smoke screens.. the point I'm making is I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the notion.

[TheRealDeal]

But wouldn't they accomplish the same thing by not talking at all? If nobody knows who the Panthers are thinking about picking, and cartain team really want a certain player bad enough, then they will contact the Panthers and ask what it will take to move up, right? Are they really gonna offer more bacause of some blurb in the media?

Here is a simple example.

The Bills desperately want Cameron Newton.

The Bills think, just like everyone else, that we do not take a QB because we have our franchise QB in Jimmy and you can't give up on him yet as everyone in the media has suggested.

The Bills have no fear in their hearts that we will select Cam Newton because of this and therefor have no reason to offer up a trade.

When asked about Cameron Newton, the Panthers have only nice things to say.

Bills response, "WTF?"

Bills start to ponder the idea of us taking Cam #1 and worry.

Cam fails all tests known to man.

Bills think now there is really no way we take him #1 and they don't care about the risk they want to sell jerseys damnit.

"Unknown source" (Hurney) leaks info that Cam is a wizard on the chalkboard and fits what any team would want in the face of a franchise player.

Bills again, "WTF!"

Ring Ring.....ring ring...ri "Hello?....Sure we'd love to talk"

So while we may be getting calls independently and with other teams making the first move, we MAY be able to get a team that was thinking their player is safe to just pick up the phone and explore.

[nosuchthingasapanther]

here's the kicker... they are being silent and putting out anonymous promotions for Cam..

here's the bigger kicker. no one is going to trade up for cam when there are other QBs who are seen as equal or better than him.

the fans and wanna be media scouts are the ones creating and buying into the cam hype.

[bleys]

here's the bigger kicker. no one is going to trade up for cam when there are other QBs who are seen as equal or better than him.

the fans and wanna be media scouts are the ones buying into the cam hype.

lol.. ooooooookay, says a fan who has no idea what FO's think...

[bleys]

Here is a simple example.

The Bills desperately want Cameron Newton.

The Bills think, just like everyone else, that we do not take a QB because we have our franchise QB in Jimmy and you can't give up on him yet as everyone in the media has suggested.

The Bills have no fear in their hearts that we will select Cam Newton because of this and therefor have no reason to offer up a trade.

When asked about Cameron Newton, the Panthers have only nice things to say.

Bills response, "WTF?"

Bills start to ponder the idea of us taking Cam #1 and worry.

Cam fails all tests known to man.

Bills think now there is really no way we take him #1 and they don't care about the risk they want to sell jerseys damnit.

"Unknown source" (Hurney) leaks info that Cam is a wizard on the chalkboard and fits what any team would want in the face of a franchise player.

Bills again, "WTF!"

Ring Ring.....ring ring...ri "Hello?....Sure we'd love to talk"

So while we may be getting calls independently and with other teams making the first move, we MAY be able to get a team that was thinking their player is safe to just pick up the phone and explore.

right.. is this what happened? no one knows. no one may ever know.

the possibility would make sense and could exist.. no one has any idea... but the notion of this possibility can't be denied either.

[monstercat]

here's the kicker... they are being silent and putting out anonymous promotions for Cam.. (hypothetically, because we don't know)

we don't know.. that's why it's a smoke screen. you can't see who is who.

but to be absolutely silent means you are putting everything in fates hands, when it does absolutely NO HARM to try to dictate what little you can.

also, it's human nature to want what other people want.. sure our IQ can over come this, but just like athletes, FO's are looking for any little edge they can.

so to me, it isn't as ludicrous as some people think.. there's no harm in trying, right?

also, by no means am I saying the FO is using smoke screens.. the point I'm making is I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the notion.

Actually, they haven't been silent about Cam, in the first place. Rivera has already said good things about him for the whole world to hear, so why do they need to leak something like that to the press?

And what if the media asks him about Bowers, Gabbert, Dareus or Peterson? Do you believe he will talk them down after talking Cam up?

I just think people are making too many assumptions.

[nosuchthingasapanther]

lol.. ooooooookay, says a fan who has no idea what FO's think...

what fan does?

[monstercat]

Just FTR, ESPN is not talking about a QB for the Panthers because Kiper bet his reputation on Jimmy Clausen.

[MHS831]

What about this does nobody seem to understand? "smokescreens" don't work when you have the number one overall pick. Why would a team trade up WITH us in order to PICK the player WE made them think WE really wanted????

A successful "smokescreen" only really works when want a particular player to fall to you. For example you tell people you want player A so everyone ahead of you knows that player A won't go past your position. This makes them not consider player B who you actually want.

Also, why would we start a "smokescreen", however unrealistic, two months before the draft? No pro days, no personal interviews...come on guys. This isn't a conspiracy...it's not a ploy...the Panthers need a QB and are looking at newton and gabbert. That's it...nothing more nothing less.

I was wondering why they just don't say, "We are probably going to take a qb if nobody trades with us, but we have many needs so multiple picks later is more appealing to the needs of the Panthers."

[bleys]

what fan does?

exactly, so who knows which FO's actually think each QB is equal in talent.. if most value Cam more, then there's your separation, and going against the grain of your point..

Actually, they haven't been silent about Cam, in the first place. Rivera has already said good things about him for the whole world to hear, so why do they need to leak something like that to the press?

And what if the media asks him about Bowers, Gabbert, Dareus or Peterson? Do you believe he will talk them down after talking Cam up?

I just think people are making too many assumptions.

We are definitely talking assumptions.. it's the logic behind those assumptions that is the only thing we can discuss.. so let's all make sure we understand, people are definitely making assumptions.. and most likely, too many as well.. (kind of defines what I'm talking about.. if all we are discussing are assumptions, then what are we doing discussing anything? but we do it anyhow. and FO's are not all-knowing, they do it too)

so why would Rivera say one thing publicly and then Hurney say something privately?

well, per the term "coach speak", a lot of people do not hang on every word a coach says, because as the term is coined, it's a lot of jibberish some times. As honest as Rivera seems compared to Fox, there is NO reason to believe he is stupid enough to show all his cards.. after all, he not only has said he thinks highly of Cam, but that he is also looking into 7 or so other players..

(now ignore the idea that Rivera has nothing to lose showing his cards, read the rest of this, and then ask yourself the question again, "why would Rivera show his cards")

now why would they anonymously say something privately? because you can't put a face to the person saying it. There is a lot of truth in mystery, and it grabs at people. If you can't put a face to it, you know someone out there might be a little more honest than if it were in the press..

when players say things anonymously in locker rooms, what are your first thoughts? do you not view it as a small glimpse into the actual locker room? you hear a few comments and find out there is trouble in paradise, and typically, majority of people believe that is the real issue...

I'm not saying Hurney and Company have some big master plan they are pulling. What I am saying is there would be reason to believe it's not wasted energy and if someone at spot #2, 3, 4, or 5 might be interested in Cam, then all 4 of those teams have no idea who is saying what.. you have to ignore the theory that Hurney is saying this stuff for a sec, because out of 5 teams, no one has a clue who said what..

the point might not be Hurney wants to sell the #2 or #3 team that the Panthers want Cam, but more likely, that some anonymous team likes Cam enough to draft him.. And that #3 team might think it's #2 and will want to skip ahead to #1..

who knows.. but someone is talking.. and no one has a clue who, but you have to try to figure it out if Cam is your guy.

that is all I'm trying to point out.. I see where there would be a motive, it makes sense to me..

and granted we are only on a message board, but these guys aren't all knowing, and you have to believe they are trying to figure out what each team wants to do. mis-information only helps throw curve balls..

[monstercat]

Wow. I'm even more confused than I was before. Anyway, I just don't think anybody is going to trade up to get Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert, unless one of those guys is really that good. And if that's the case, then why shouldn't we just draft the guy ourselves?

That's a lot simpler than all of this cloak and dagger stuff, but it's much more likely, IMO.

[bleys]

seriously? lol

straight up: maybe not every team has each player at equal value.. maybe that's where the confusion is coming from..