Recipe for a bust

[Carolina Husker]

The day the Panthers secured the number one pick in this year's draft, I was pretty happy :)

The day Andrew Luck said he was staying in school, that happiness went away :(

Having the top pick in the draft is a wonderful thing in years when there's at least one player - maybe even more - on whose worthiness for that pick there is general agreement.

If that player doesn't exist though, then no matter who you take and what position they play, you're reaching. And the sad truth is that reaches at number one have an unfortunate tendency to turn into busts.

The obvious answer, of course, is to trade down. But there's the Catch 22. If there's no clear-cut number one, then what incentive is there for anyone to trade up?

Happily, there's still a fair amount of time between now and the end of April, time enough for some team to fall in love with a particular prospect and get nervous enough about the possibility of missing out that they'll make an offer. Will it happen? Don't know, but we can hope.

If it doesn't though, we'll end up having to reach, and that makes me nervous :willy_nilly:

Thanks, Peter King.

Virtually everything you just said is common knowledge and has been discussed literally hundreds of times on here already.

[Actionman0z]

With no clear cut winner, you have to go with a kid thats produced in a hard conference who YOU as a staff put in the best position to make an impact right away. At this point thats Dareus, or Peterson.

[Highlandfire]

The day the Panthers secured the number one pick in this year's draft, I was pretty happy :)

The day Andrew Luck said he was staying in school, that happiness went away :(

Having the top pick in the draft is a wonderful thing in years when there's at least one player - maybe even more - on whose worthiness for that pick there is general agreement.

If that player doesn't exist though, then no matter who you take and what position they play, you're reaching. And the sad truth is that reaches at number one have an unfortunate tendency to turn into busts.

The obvious answer, of course, is to trade down. But there's the Catch 22. If there's no clear-cut number one, then what incentive is there for anyone to trade up?

Happily, there's still a fair amount of time between now and the end of April, time enough for some team to fall in love with a particular prospect and get nervous enough about the possibility of missing out that they'll make an offer. Will it happen? Don't know, but we can hope.

If it doesn't though, we'll end up having to reach, and that makes me nervous :willy_nilly:

Mr. Scott, spot on. ALL the QB's are reaches this year, ALL of them moreso than any other year.

There is not one player worth what would normally be the #1 overall pick. The best scenario right now is trade down, but who will trade up.

Well that is the thing, there is ALWAYS someone calling. Now the 50 million dollar question is, will the panthers accept less than what they could normally demand with a clear cut guy there in previous years. I say they should. If say Cinci wants to trade up to get a QB or Dallas at #9, will we still get a stud player there? Sure, but what are we willing to accept for the trade?

I hope someone offers up a few picks and we take the trade. To me the drop off in talent isn't great at all in picks 1-15.

[mountainpantherfan]

A team with picks 2-16 who want a certain player will trade with the Panthers. The question is what are the Panthers willing to take in order to give up having the choice of anyone they want.

Just looking at teams 2-16 who are in need of a QB: Buffalo, Cinny, Arizona, San Fran, Tenn, Washington, Minnesota and Miami.

So lets just say Washington offers their 1st and 2nd for the Panthers 1st overall. Not even close to being of equal value but do you take it anyways? I know Washington would probably take that deal in a heartbeat.

IMO, if the Panthers want to trade this pick, they can and will trade it. Just not sure if thats the best idea or not.

[Icege]

Good post Mr.Scot, I've said this since Luck backed out - that this was a relatively weak year to earn the #1 pick, as there was no clear cut candidate if Luck didn't declare. I still find myself getting excited about the process leading up to that pick occasionally, but then I catch myself and realize we are going to take a VERY unsexy pick (OL, DL, etc.) to avoid the bust label, or we're gonna draft a bust.

I don't really see anything good happening with this pick and it feels like we're stuck with it.

I remember posting the same thing back when people were pulling for the team to lose so that we could draft Andrew Luck. People were indignant if you mentioned that it wasn't a sure thing because, "Why would he not get paid millions and stay in school?"

:idea:

I don't see any QB that is going to make an immediate impact from their first snap at the pro level. I'm a firm believer in developing rookies instead of hurrying to get them out on the field for the fans and media.

At the same time, from a business perspective: if the new solutions to a problem are made available and they're as questionable as the ones you already have, why spend more resources on them as opposed to putting those resources towards a problem you know you can address with what's available?

While perfection is desired, it is impossible.

Personally, this combine was the end of my desire to take Nick Fairley OR Cam Newton w/ #1. Fairley being smaller than advertised and Marcell Dareus running nearly as quick with 30lbs extra on him quickly along with concerns about Fairley's effort got me off of that bandwagon. As for Newton, it wasn't his throwing that bothered me nor his arrogance.

It was finding out that at the end of the National Championship game that he called the QB Sneak.

His RB is what kept Auburn in that game, and he broke off that huge run to seal the game. If the call was a kneel and Cam disobeyed his coach, then it should have been to give the ball to Dyer.

That to me is a major, major red flag.

Hopefully somebody else falls in love with him enough to not be willing to let there be a chance he goes anywhere else. If the team drafts him, I hope I'm wrong, but I would rather deal with a (hopefully) humbled Jimmy Clausen and whomever else can brought in.

There's still pro days to look forward too. I'm excited to see how the picture is shaping up :)

[mountainpantherfan]

Mr. Scott, spot on. ALL the QB's are reaches this year, ALL of them moreso than any other year.

There is not one player worth what would normally be the #1 overall pick. The best scenario right now is trade down, but who will trade up.

Well that is the thing, there is ALWAYS someone calling. Now the 50 million dollar question is, will the panthers accept less than what they could normally demand with a clear cut guy there in previous years. I say they should. If say Cinci wants to trade up to get a QB or Dallas at #9, will we still get a stud player there? Sure, but what are we willing to accept for the trade?

I hope someone offers up a few picks and we take the trade. To me the drop off in talent isn't great at all in picks 1-15.

You beat me to the punch. My other disagreement is that there are players that could be great players. They just aren't at positions that most put a high value on like LB or TE. Hell, IMO Mark Ingram may actually be one of the best RB of the next decade but no one wants to draft a RB early anyone because of "value" later on in the draft.

I get the value arguement I just don't know if I support in this situation. I'd rather the Panthers draft Von Miller (who I feel is the best player in the draft) than reach for a QB or DT or DE. But an OLB isn't a position you take at #1 overall supposedly. I don't know, if a team sees him as the best then why no?

IMO you trade if you can but if not just draft BPA and don't reach.

[Highlandfire]

You beat me to the punch. My other disagreement is that there are players that could be great players. They just aren't at positions that most put a high value on like LB or TE. Hell, IMO Mark Ingram may actually be one of the best RB of the next decade but no one wants to draft a RB early anyone because of "value" later on in the draft.

I get the value arguement I just don't know if I support in this situation. I'd rather the Panthers draft Von Miller (who I feel is the best player in the draft) than reach for a QB or DT or DE. But an OLB isn't a position you take at #1 overall supposedly. I don't know, if a team sees him as the best then why no?

IMO you trade if you can but if not just draft BPA and don't reach.

BPA is fine for a team that is already playoff caliber we aren't there yet. BPA may be a CB, problem is you never take a CB without addressing the pass rush first esp the DL which is weak for us.

Look if there is a guy that can perform like Suh or Gerald mcCoy before he got hurt and missed over 4 games this year then shore up DT. If not trade down. There WILL be someone willing to trade up, we will not get as much as in previous years for it, but the offers will be there and this team has several needs.

[mountainpantherfan]

BPA is fine for a team that is already playoff caliber we aren't there yet. BPA may be a CB, problem is you never take a CB without addressing the pass rush first esp the DL which is weak for us.

Look if there is a guy that can perform like Suh or Gerald mcCoy before he got hurt and missed over 4 games this year then shore up DT. If not trade down. There WILL be someone willing to trade up, we will not get as much as in previous years for it, but the offers will be there and this team has several needs.

So would you say that if in FA you could pick between Charles Johnson and Darrell Revis you would take Charles Johnson all money being equal?

I understand your point which is based on the "value" system. A QB or DT or LT is more valuable to the success of a team than a TE or LB. Or that great line play can make and average secondary look good.

The problem I have with the "value" system is that it creates value in players based only on their position and not on their actual talents. A great example of this is with Patrick Peterson. Most say he would be a better safety then corner but if he's drafted as a safety he won't get picked inside the top ten. As a corner he will.

...really? How in the hell does that make any sense? But I have actually seen those comments on draft boards and on here.

[Chaos]

It seems that in most years there is at least a clear-cut #1 pick, or a few guys head and shoulders above the rest. Usually the team with the first pick begins their negotiations with the soon-to-be #1 pick well before the draft. I guess the whole CBA thing could flush this theory straight down the crapper.

If we're not hearing any early talks of contracts with a guy before draft day, could it be a sign that Hurney is holding out for potential trade offers? Just a thought...