Recipe for a bust

[LinvilleGorge]

The day the Panthers secured the number one pick in this year's draft, I was pretty happy :)

The day Andrew Luck said he was staying in school, that happiness went away :(

This just about sums it up.

As soon as Luck announced he was going back to school, I :banghead:

There will still be some great players come out of this draft, but as far as the #1 pick, there is just no one that stands out from the pack as a prospect.

[Catalyst]

I think if you're drafting number one, you pretty much have to take someone who can start and have an impact right away.

I disagree. This whole "#1 pick must start now OMG!" knee-jerk draft strategy is a recent development. In year's past it wasn't uncommon AT ALL for the 1st overall pick to sit and learn before getting his shot.

It also depends on the position. Some positions are just more NFL-ready by design. Linemen often start early in their careers, skill position players have a more difficult time doing so right away.

The only way to approach this pick is to go with the player who we think, in 5 years, will be the best in this draft class based on all our best scouting efforts. You can't be concerned with the guy playing as a rookie or not.

Obviously it'd be a big plus, but if the best player available is also one who needs some time to develop further before he can reach that potential then you don't automatically go to the next guy on your board - especially in a case like this where the top-5 is so close talent-wise and nobody really has the outright edge.

This is why I want Cam Newton. Because I believe that, with proper coaching and development, he can and will develop into a star. How long will it take? One year? Two years? Three? What does it matter so long as he does?

Last time we were picking this high (2002) we took Julius Peppers. People now look back and say it was the right move to pass over Joey Harrington because he was a bust, but I ask you this: what did having Peppers really give us? Had we not stumbled onto Jake Delhomme in '03 we'd have been average at best during Peppers' time here. Now, obviously I'm not arguing that we should've taken Joey Harrington there, but the fact is QB is so much more important than these other positions that if there's a player you feel can be your guy you HAVE to take him, even if there remains work to be done.

No defensive lineman, receiver, corner, or linebacker can have the impact a franchise QB can. We have a stud WR, a stud LB, several other standout players on the roster, and drafting Bowers, Dareus, Fairley, Peterson, or Green might very well give us another one, BUT... what good will it do if we continue to lack at QB? I'm sick of rooting for our guys in the Pro Bowl... I want to root for them in the SUPER Bowl.

I honestly believe that we won't have that chance until we bite the bullet, throw some caution to the wind, and take the risk that is a top-flight QB prospect at the top of the draft. Be it this year or next, we're going to have to eventually and everyone knows it. Elite QB's are had via the 1st round unless you're incredibly lucky and become one of the rare exceptions in the NFL.

We can't take that chance anymore.

[riddel]

Recipe for a bust....

Cam Newton.

scares the crap out of me and could set us back another 2 years if he doesn't pan out...

[Mr. Scot]

I disagree. This whole "#1 pick must start now OMG!" knee-jerk draft strategy is a recent development. In year's past it wasn't uncommon AT ALL for the 1st overall pick to sit and learn before getting his shot.

It also depends on the position. Some positions are just more NFL-ready by design. Linemen often start early in their careers, skill position players have a more difficult time doing so right away.

The only way to approach this pick is to go with the player who we think, in 5 years, will be the best in this draft class based on all our best scouting efforts. You can't be concerned with the guy playing as a rookie or not.

Obviously it'd be a big plus, but if the best player available is also one who needs some time to develop further before he can reach that potential then you don't automatically go to the next guy on your board - especially in a case like this where the top-5 is so close talent-wise and nobody really has the outright edge.

This is why I want Cam Newton. Because I believe that, with proper coaching and development, he can and will develop into a star. How long will it take? One year? Two years? Three? What does it matter so long as he does?

Last time we were picking this high (2002) we took Julius Peppers. People now look back and say it was the right move to pass over Joey Harrington because he was a bust, but I ask you this: what did having Peppers really give us? Had we not stumbled onto Jake Delhomme in '03 we'd have been average at best during Peppers' time here. Now, obviously I'm not arguing that we should've taken Joey Harrington there, but the fact is QB is so much more important than these other positions that if there's a player you feel can be your guy you HAVE to take him, even if there remains work to be done.

No defensive lineman, receiver, corner, or linebacker can have the impact a franchise QB can. We have a stud WR, a stud LB, several other standout players on the roster, and drafting Bowers, Dareus, Fairley, Peterson, or Green might very well give us another one, BUT... what good will it do if we continue to lack at QB? I'm sick of rooting for our guys in the Pro Bowl... I want to root for them in the SUPER Bowl.

I honestly believe that we won't have that chance until we bite the bullet, throw some caution to the wind, and take the risk that is a top-flight QB prospect at the top of the draft. Be it this year or next, we're going to have to eventually and everyone knows it. Elite QB's are had via the 1st round unless you're incredibly lucky and become one of the rare exceptions in the NFL.

We can't take that chance anymore.

I can't get behind passing over a need we have right now to take a guy who we hope will help two to three years down the road, especially with no second round pick and the distinct possibility of no free agent signings prior to the draft.

We are just not in that kind of position right now.

[Dpantherman]

You don't draft projects #1 overall. You want someone that can make an impact soon. when you are picking first, that usually means you have a dire needs. which is why you pick someone that can help you now.

[Seamonk]

Not just #1 overall but top 5. In terms of QBs, how long did Matt Ryan, Stafford, Bradford, etc etc sit? Sure it takes some guys a little while to submerge them into the system but you don't really get a top 5 pick qb and sit him the entire rookie year. Hell, lately it's even been applying to first round qbs in general with Flacco, The Golden Calf of Bristol, Freeman. and the bust rate for a QB in the first has gone down lately because teams are no longer buying media hype on players and doing their own assessments. This is because when you draft guys like Alex Smith and Russell with the #1 overall and it doesn't work out.. your job security is gone. You better be ready with the pick you get.

[pantherclaw]

Does hurney get an impact player, or does he take risk on a qb.

I think he goes with an impact player.

[jarhead]

I think you hit the nail on the head with this thread.I have found myself caught up in the hype of drafting the player with the most upside simply because the there is not a clear number 1 pick or a position deserving of a number 1 pick.I think particularly Newton falls in that catagory.I love to watch Fairley but something inside says he does not have work ethic or ambition.It one thing to watch a player before he gets that big paycheck but after the big payday what then?It may not be as sexy but I am leaning towards Darius, Peterson or Green on the surface but hold the hope that our management sees something that I dont in these high risk high reward players.

[teeray]

The day the Panthers secured the number one pick in this year's draft, I was pretty happy :)

The day Andrew Luck said he was staying in school, that happiness went away :(

Having the top pick in the draft is a wonderful thing in years when there's at least one player - maybe even more - on whose worthiness for that pick there is general agreement.

If that player doesn't exist though, then no matter who you take and what position they play, you're reaching. And the sad truth is that reaches at number one have an unfortunate tendency to turn into busts.

The obvious answer, of course, is to trade down. But there's the Catch 22. If there's no clear-cut number one, then what incentive is there for anyone to trade up?

Happily, there's still a fair amount of time between now and the end of April, time enough for some team to fall in love with a particular prospect and get nervous enough about the possibility of missing out that they'll make an offer. Will it happen? Don't know, but we can hope.

If it doesn't though, we'll end up having to reach, and that makes me nervous :willy_nilly:

Just relax. Whoever we pick will be fine. I doubt though there is anyone good enough to justify trading for our pick so we are going to have to make a decision. I still think Gabbert and Newton will be front runners followed by Fairley and Marcell Dareus.

By front runners I mean they will have first chance to blow it. If neither can convince the Panthers they are worth thag pick, then I think it will be Fairley or dareus

[Mr. Scot]

I think you hit the nail on the head with this thread.I have found myself caught up in the hype of drafting the player with the most upside simply because the there is not a clear number 1 pick or a position deserving of a number 1 pick.I think particularly Newton falls in that catagory.I love to watch Fairley but something inside says he does not have work ethic or ambition.It one thing to watch a player before he gets that big paycheck but after the big payday what then?It may not be as sexy but I am leaning towards Darius, Peterson or Green on the surface but hold the hope that our management sees something that I dont in these high risk high reward players.

Leaning toward Dareus at the moment.

[Debil]

The day the Panthers secured the number one pick in this year's draft, I was pretty happy :)

The day Andrew Luck said he was staying in school, that happiness went away :(

Having the top pick in the draft is a wonderful thing in years when there's at least one player - maybe even more - on whose worthiness for that pick there is general agreement.

If that player doesn't exist though, then no matter who you take and what position they play, you're reaching. And the sad truth is that reaches at number one have an unfortunate tendency to turn into busts.

The obvious answer, of course, is to trade down. But there's the Catch 22. If there's no clear-cut number one, then what incentive is there for anyone to trade up?

Happily, there's still a fair amount of time between now and the end of April, time enough for some team to fall in love with a particular prospect and get nervous enough about the possibility of missing out that they'll make an offer. Will it happen? Don't know, but we can hope.

If it doesn't though, we'll end up having to reach, and that makes me nervous :willy_nilly:

P.T. Barnum once said, "There's a sucker born every minute."

Some team will gladly trade up, if we decide to trade down, that is.

[KaseKlosed]

Mr Scot Make sure you smoke some weed before the Draft begins buddy

[MadHatter]

P.T. Barnum once said, "There's a sucker born every minute."

Some team will gladly trade up, if we decide to trade down, that is.

Oh, someone would definitely be willing to trade up. The question is what would they be willing as compensation.

Personally, I would trade back to the 2nd-5th pick for only their 2nd round pick.

[Snake]

No team is going to fall in love with any guy this year. So forget trading up, we are stuck at #1. The sad fact of the matter is players bust sometimes and you have to deal with that. Clausen will be a bust, just like Jarrett was before him. Still rest assured Hurney has been killer in round 1 so whoever we choose we will have a good player.