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NFL Execs: Easy Choice for Panthers #1 Pick...

Proudiddy

By Proudiddy,
in Carolina Panthers

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pantherclaw Grand Master

pantherclaw

Posted
Posted

Where to start this post.

I don't believe there is a sure fire, can't miss qb is this draft. I also don't believe in the bullshit that ya can only get franchise qbs in the top five.

I'd honestly be happy with the Panthers picking Greene, Peterson, or Fairley (sp?) Than any qb in this draft.

With that being said, if they are going to gamble on any of the qbs in this draft, I hope it's Cam. Ya just can't ignore his size, strength, mobility, and the fact the he is a winner. That is a LOT more than Jimmy can say.

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mountainpantherfan Newbie

mountainpantherfan

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I'm not going to say the Mike Mayock is all knowing or anything but I will always judge on the side of Mayock when it comes to most thing draft related. If Mayock is saying Gabbert should go #1 overall then there is merit to it. I'm not saying Mayock saying it makes it a fact but for me I would have completely agreed with most of you in saying Gabbert is in no way worthy of the #1 overall until Mayock said otherwise. I'm just going to side with the guy who gets paid to do this (and the best in the business even though the competition isn't that strong) over myself or other fans.

Mayocks unbiased opinon has more weight than execs with an agenda saying the same thing. Just my opinion though.

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monstercat Newbie

monstercat

Posted
Posted

Where to start this post.

I don't believe there is a sure fire, can't miss qb is this draft. I also don't believe in the bullsh*t that ya can only get franchise qbs in the top five.

I'd honestly be happy with the Panthers picking Greene, Peterson, or Fairley (sp?) Than any qb in this draft.

With that being said, if they are going to gamble on any of the qbs in this draft, I hope it's Cam. Ya just can't ignore his size, strength, mobility, and the fact the he is a winner. That is a LOT more than Jimmy can say.

You can get a franchise outside of the top 5, but it's very rare, and you can't just hope you will get lucky and have one fall in your lap.

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monstercat Newbie

monstercat

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but the other 3 were still first rounders.

Exactly, and with 20/20 hindsight, it's pretty easy to say that Rodgers definitely should have been a top 5 pick, yet if it would have happened, sombody would have called it a reach. I would rather be accused of "reaching' now and have my franchise QB already on the roster, than to hope I get lucky in the future. Hope is not a method.

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bleys Newbie

bleys

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Exactly, and with 20/20 hindsight, it's pretty easy to say that Rodgers definitely should have been a top 5 pick, yet if it would have happened, sombody would have called it a reach. I would rather be accused of "reaching' now and have my franchise QB already on the roster, than to hope I get lucky in the future. Hope is not a method.

I certainly would too.. all depends on if that guy is in this draft..

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teeray Rookie

teeray

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Exactly, and with 20/20 hindsight, it's pretty easy to say that Rodgers definitely should have been a top 5 pick, yet if it would have happened, sombody would have called it a reach. I would rather be accused of "reaching' now and have my franchise QB already on the roster, than to hope I get lucky in the future. Hope is not a method.

Monster we are on the same side about a lot of things. But there was a great deal of debate over whether San Fran would take Rodgers or Smith. It really was close to fifty fifty.

I agree with your original point though

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pantherclaw Grand Master

pantherclaw

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You can get a franchise outside of the top 5, but it's very rare, and you can't just hope you will get lucky and have one fall in your lap.

What is the goal for any player in the NFL? Any team. Any quarterback?

To win a championship, correct?

Here are the quarterbacks of the last 20 superbowl winners.

Ben - 11th overall pick

Brees - 2nd round

Ben again

Manning, Eli - 1st overall

Manning, P - 1st overall

Ben again

Tom Brady - 6th round

Brady again

Brad Johnson - 9th round

Brady again

Trent Dilfer - 6th overall

Warner - Undrafted

John Elway - #1 overall

Elway again

Favre - 2nd round, #33 overall

Aikman - #1 overall

Steve Young - 3rd round

Aikman

Aikman

Finially, Mark Rypen - 6th round, #146 overall.

That is 4 quarterbacks picked in the top 5 picks, that have won Superbowls in the last 20 years.

Only 2 others were even first round picks.

8 were first day picks (3rd round or higher).

The majority of them were NOT first round quarterbacks.

It can easily be argued that even the top guys, didn't carry their team, and win it all by themselves.

Yes, it takes better scouting, and time to develop, but franchise quarterbacks can be found outside of the top 5, and even the first round.

If I were to include the quarterbacks of the losing teams, I'd be willing to bet that the #'s would be even more in favor of the point I'm making.

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teeray Rookie

teeray

Posted
Posted

What is the goal for any player in the NFL? Any team. Any quarterback?

To win a championship, correct?

Here are the quarterbacks of the last 20 superbowl winners.

Ben - 11th overall pick

Brees - 2nd round

Ben again

Manning, Eli - 1st overall

Manning, P - 1st overall

Ben again

Tom Brady - 6th round

Brady again

Brad Johnson - 9th round

Brady again

Trent Dilfer - 6th overall

Warner - Undrafted

John Elway - #1 overall

Elway again

Favre - 2nd round, #33 overall

Aikman - #1 overall

Steve Young - 3rd round

Aikman

Aikman

Finially, Mark Rypen - 6th round, #146 overall.

That is 4 quarterbacks picked in the top 5 picks, that have won Superbowls in the last 20 years.

Only 2 others were even first round picks.

8 were first day picks (3rd round or higher).

The majority of them were NOT first round quarterbacks.

It can easily be argued that even the top guys, didn't carry their team, and win it all by themselves.

Yes, it takes better scouting, and time to develop, but franchise quarterbacks can be found outside of the top 5, and even the first round.

If I were to include the quarterbacks of the losing teams, I'd be willing to bet that the #'s would be even more in favor of the point I'm making.

This is fool's gold. QB's that are taken after the 20th pick have a fail rate of over 90%. You can get lucky and find those guys but it takes A LOT of luck and patience.

Last year 14 teams had winning records. 11 of those teams had QB's taken in the first round.

The success rate for first round QB's is around 50%. Second round is @10%. The subsequent rounds, as you can imagine get worse and worse. Around 3%.

It is erroneous to look at this chart and think, "We can get the guy in the second round or later." It happens. But not often.

It is the riskier play than drafting a QB early

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