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Marty's first round draft pick history.

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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I think the biggest reason Marty has had success in the first rounds of NFL drafts Since coming to Carolina is that he seems to have avoided taking Risky players. I think even the biggest Cam supporters will admit he comes with his share of risk. Marty has, however, drafted for needs over presumed BPA, with possibly the only exception being Beason.

Now, one could argue that we drafted safely every year and the pick was based on need.

2002-Julius Peppers (not a tough call considering he was a 4-3 DE. However, he was rumored to take plays off at UNC. Whew. Glad those weren't true)

2003-Jordan Gross (A solid OT that many thought was picked too high, especailly after he was moved to RT. However, a safe pick for a team building a running offense)

2004- Chris Gamble (This was interesting because we moved up from 31 to 28 giving up a fourth rounder to grab Gamble. a CB is a pretty safe pick, especially one that was rated in the top 15 by many experts. Gamble has turned out to be rather solid)

2005- Thomas Davis (Davis was a special talent out of UGa but seemed to be a tweener. This was the most risky pick to date. When Davis was not great at SS, they converted him to OLB, and the transition took a season or two. Still, defensive players are easier to guage than most offensive players).

2006- Deangelo Williams (If you are drafting an offensive player and want quick results, draft a RB. They take the least amount of time to develop by most standards--they also have the shortest shelf life. With Stephen Davis gone and Fumblin' Foster as the starter, a need pick but a relatively safe pick).

2007-Jon Beason (somewhat controversial, but not if you consider the fact that Morgan was oft injured, we just let Witherspoon go, and Beason was a high-character, fast, tough leader of a LB) safe pick.

2008-Jonathan Stewart, Jeff Otah (The Panthers go offense when the risk factors for possibly their biggest need, DT, was too high. The offensive players they took were RB and OT again. Safe picks when compared to WR or QB.)

DL- 1 pick

DB- 1 pick

LB- 2 picks

RB- 2 picks

OL- 2 picks

Risk is involved with any player, but there is another pattern I have seen. Hurney seems to like fallers, Players who were projected to go higher. In last year's draft alone, that applies to Clausen, possibly Lafell, Norwood, Hardy, Pike. Looking at the list above, it applies to DW and Gamble, but first rounders are hardly fallers.

As Hurney and Fox seemed to feel more pressure to win immediately, they traded first rounders. Still, they stayed true to their roots and drafted a strong back, powerful right tackle, and then went after a pass-rushing DE. Even when Jake was aging and seemed to lose his mojo, QBs in the draft were basically bypassed until last year, when he drafted 2.

If Hurney was burned in the 2010 draft with Clausen and Pike, would he take ANOTHER chance at drafting another QB? Not unless he checks out and the risk does not exceed the cost and the need.

I think we can rule out RB and OT this year. Hurney has had the most success drafting defensive players, arguably. In a draft that is so defensive at the top, will he pluck an offensive player with so many red flags? I suppose we can say that his draft behavior has been altered by pressure (trading first rounders) of late, but I don't see Hurney taking the bait here.

Look for Marty to trade out of the top spot if he gets an offer. If not, I am thinking he will not draft a third QB, instead, will spend in the free agent market. Dareus, Fairley, Bowers, or Peterson make the most sense if you look at his history. Of course, there is a new coach and new direction. We shall see.

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CatMan72 Enthusiast

CatMan72

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Most teams would kill to have a 7 year first-round draft history that reads like that... not one dud in the first round and you should look at either Otah or Stewart as our 2009 first round pick.

We also managed to get Kalil in the 2nd round and Charles Johnson in the 3rd the same year we took Beason.

The criticism of Hurney's drafting is totally absurd, I don't blame him for getting pissed when people call him out on it.

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CatMan72 Enthusiast

CatMan72

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has there been a year marty has drafted when our offense was so horrid? A year with no surefire player on the defensive line?

Well, in '02 we were coming off a 1-15 season. The offense was not as bad as it was this year but I think we took some crap for picking Peppers while Joey Harrington was available, especially since we had gone defense in the first two rounds of the '01 draft and Weinke (a 4th round pick) had a Clausen-esqe 2001 rookie campaign.

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CatMan72 Enthusiast

CatMan72

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I think Fairley's "dirty play" may cause us to steer clear.

I'm not saying I agree with that, but Bowers may be viewed as a safer pick simply because he doesn't engage in the kind antics Fairley does.

There are also some questions about whether or not Fairley is the best player at his position in this draft class. There is no question about whether or not Bowers, Peterson and Green are the best players at their respective positions in this draft.

The only real concerns about Bowers are 1. His one-year wonder status (same as Fairley, so that's a wash) and the possibility of any lingering effects from his knee surgery (we've see how things can quickly spiral downward with Otah).

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