"If it were up to me to fix the QB spot, I would..."

[rayzor]

Let's focus on the one that was more of a gamble then and talk about A Smith. Similar story to Newton. Came from a spread OPTION offense. Was very fast but people questioned how he'd handle a pro offense. A Rod was sitting there as well and although many felt neither were worth the #1 pick, SF just had to have one and forced themselves to pick a franchise guy. 6 years later. Same thing.

Was he not a gamble?

All the other QBs taken at #1 this decade were far less of gambles than A Smith and Russell and have worked out better so far.

You can throw Carr in there but between Harrington and Carr and being an expansion team they were going to reach no matter what.

i'll apologize about the lenth of this post in advance, but i do think that it is worth the read and helps to get an idea of what happened to alex smith and how newton can have a better outcome.

when smith was drafted, it was the year that mike nolan was named coach. his OC was mike mccarthy who runs a WCO which is probably the most complicated of the schemes used by the NFL. so not only do you have a 20 year old QB coming out of a spread to the pros, you have a 20 year old rookie QB coming into a system that takes 4-5 years for a QB and the rest of the team to get a full grasp on. it's no wonder smith had the problems he had (1 TD:11 INTs) as a rookie. there was bound to be problems having a rookie starting, but having him start in a WCO was just dumb. the scheme needs to be rookie QB friendly for him to be able to adjust to the game. that is something that teams more recently have caught on to. this was very much a case of a round peg trying to fit into a square hole.

well, after that season, OC #1 left to become head coach of the packers. in came OC #2 in season #2 for smith. in also came offense #2, the air coryell offense with norv turner...quite different, but not nearly as complicated. there was nowhere to go but up for smith, but up he went doing much better than the previous year. he threw 16 TDs and 16 INTs. not too shabby for a 2nd year QB, esp. after how he looked the previous season.

well, after that season, turner left to become HC for the chargers. that meant hostler became the 3rd OC in smiths 3rd year bringing in a 3rd offense. it wasn't a WCO and it wasn't a coryell. it was the ugly abomination of a bastard child of the two. it was hostler's brain child. i'm not sure, but i think its called the fail offense. the playcalling was horrible. it hugely underutilized their best weapon in frank gore. the players didn't like him or trust him. he was probably worse than davidson last year. smith started off that year hoping to build on his success from the previous year, but he struggled in that God forsaken offense and then he got hurt very early in the season (4th game). nolan was a prick and got smith back in the game too early and smith got hurt again in the same area (shoulder).

hostler got fired as the season ended and then in came mike martz as OC #4 in season #4 bringing in offense #4 for smith. martz's offense has it's roots in the coryell, but is a much more complicated version of it...too complicated according to many. martz wanted a big gun slinger for the job and went to jt osullivan. osullivan sucked. mike nolan gets fired. singletary gets made head coach. osullivan gets replaced with shaun hill. smith sits on the bench. martz gets fired by singletary who wants a more conservative ball control offense rather than the high wire circus act known as a mike martz offense. in comes jimmy raye as the 5th OC in smith's fourth year. in comes smith's 5th offense in 4 years. season ends with smith still on the bench.

next year the OC stays the same for the first time in smith's 5 year career. smith was benched for the first 5 games but half way through the 6th he stepped in and finished with a 5-5 record, 18 TDs and 12 INTs. he did surprisingly well considering all the changes that had taken place every year he had been there.

2010 season, they start out with the same OC, but then he gets fired 3 games into the season. so in comes OC number 6 in year number 6 with a 6th offense, which has a lot of singletary's offense in it but with elements of the spread. smith does ok for a few games, throwing 7 TDs (including 3 in 1) and 4 INTs with the new OC and offense, but then gets injured by charles johnson which very well could have been the reason they lost the game. smith wasn't winning much, but a lot of that had to do with singletary who was becoming pretty schizophrenic his last year there. troy smith comes in and wins a couple games, but then has a melt down and alex smith comes back in and wins 2 and throws 5 TDs and 1 INT.

point of all that is to ask, is alex smith a bust or just a guy with a stream of bad luck? 2 HC's fired while there and 6 OCs with 6 different offenses in his 6 seasons as a pro.

after that first miserable season of his, he went on to throw 50 TDs and 42 INTs in 45 games. that isn't anything stellar, but when you consider how much of a clusterf*ck his situation has been, it's pretty reasonable.

any QB coming into the league needs to have a team commit itself to him. more than that, he needs consistency so that he can learn the job he has. he doesn't need to be in a situation where the OC and the offense changes every year. why didn't he make the transition to the pros very well? was it because he came from a spread or because of the crappy situation he was thrown into.

people make excuses for jimmy all the time saying that no one could have done well last year. that is pretty debateable, but i totally believe that hardly anyone, regardless of the scheme they came from, could have done well in that situation. how can you grow and learn the job when your job is doing nothing but change. with every new offense comes a totally new playbook to learn and totally new terminology. you could say that a lot of the reason he didn't do so well was beause the whole team had to go through all of those changes as well.

i'm not even sure that you can call him a bust knowing what he went through. if he is, it's no more his fault than someone getting injured early on and having a mediocre career can be called a bust. it's a busted situation that kept getting busted up. it wasn't the spread offense he played in college that hurt him. it's having to learn a new offense every year with no real time to get completely acclimated to it.

so what can cam newton do to not "bust" like smith? get consistent coaching. have some continuity in his coaching staff. play in the same offense year after year, giving him a chance to learn and grow into a scheme and let the scheme and playbook evolve around his skill set, abilities, and limitations. let him start out in an offense that takes into consideration the scheme that he came from, his limitations as a rookie QB. let that offense be a safe one for him with lots of running and safe high percentage throws. that is the same formula i would use for any QB that gets drafted and gets the starting gig. it's the exact same formula that the smart and well coached teams (that wouldn't be fox/davidson)have been using the past few years when they started their rookie QB and it has worked, regardless of the scheme the QB came from, and it would work with newton.

[TheRealDeal]

I think everyone knows the history with Smith but in reality it doesn't change anything. He was still the #1 pick that they reached for and it didn't work out.

Knowing the offense we are going to run, do you think Cam is a good fit? Do you think our offense will now be tailored to Cam and basically changed from a vertical attack to a dink and dunk (Cue Cyberjag telling us that the offense is designed for TE and RBs)?

You can honestly come up with a million excuses for any bust in the draft but it still holds true that they reached for him because there was no one else and it didn't work out. You could argue that if he was more talented and a better QB coming out of college, he would have been better and maybe those OCs wouldn't have lost their jobs. Someone had to fall on the sword for the #1 pick not playing well, and it sure as hell wasn't going to be him because he was the #1 pick and he has to be great so it's the OCs fault.

I just don't like the idea of falling in love with a guy because he's big and athletic but has proven little in terms of refined skills. This isn't the NBA, you don't draft just potential here.

[rayzor]

I think everyone knows the history with Smith but in reality it doesn't change anything. He was still the #1 pick that they reached for and it didn't work out. .

it didn't work out because the team was constantly changing things. it didn't have much to do with smith. it had everything to do with the piss poor situation he was thrown into and stayed in all through his career. i'm not going to hold smith responsible for not being able to keep up with 6 different OCs and 6 different offensive schemes in 6 years. thats just flat out ridiculous. it appears that harbaugh is thinking the same thing as well. "don't draft newton because smith was thrown into a horrible situation and never given a chance to learn a new offense because it changed every year?" sorry. find something else.

Knowing the offense we are going to run, do you think Cam is a good fit? Do you think our offense will now be tailored to Cam and basically changed from a vertical attack to a dink and dunk (Cue Cyberjag telling us that the offense is designed for TE and RBs)?.

yes, i do think it would be a good fit. basics of the air coryell from wiki:

The Coryell offense is a combination of deep and mid range passing and power running. The offense relies on getting all five receivers out into patterns that combined stretched the field, setting up defensive backs with route technique and the Quarterback throwing to a spot on time where the receiver can catch and turn up field. Pass protection is critical to success because at least two of the five receivers will run a deep in, skinny post, comeback, speed out, or shallow cross.

Overall the goal of the Coryell offense is to have at least two downfield, fast wide receivers who adjust to the deep pass very well, combined with a sturdy pocket quarterback with a strong arm. The Coryell offense uses three key weapons. The first is a strong inside running game, the second is its ability to strike deep with two or more receivers on any play, and the third is to not only use those two attack in cooperation with each other, but to include a great deal of mid-range passing to a TE, WR, or back.

The Coryell offense has the ability to both "eat the clock" with the ground game but also to strike deep and fast without warning. Critics argue that the Coryell offense is ill-suited for coming from behind, as the deep pass attack will be predictable and therefore easy to stop. However, the fact that the offense is structured around a power running game and tall WRs who can win jump balls and have some breakaway speed make this contention hard to support. This offense is built not only for deep passing but also to defeat short yardage and red zone situations. When evenly matched, the Coryell offense can produce big drives and big scoring efficiently. If teams sit back to cover the deep field, offenses should be able to run the ball on them. If the defense tightens down to stop the run, the offense can go deep. If a defense hedges its bets by using three-deep setups with an eight-man defense up front, the QB can pick apart the defense with 10-20 yard passes

the bold is areas where i think he is a great match. the red are things that he needs to work on. his biggest strength as a passer is his deep ball accuracy, which is what he thrived on at auburn. we also need to have a strong power running game, which he certainly won't hurt, but would actually improve, being able to take advantage of defenses that have to deal with keeping 3 or 4 deep to cover our 2-3 WRs who would be going deep and using their LBs to cover the other 2-3 options of the 5 receiver sets we will be using. his ability to spot holes and run through them would make him dangerous as long as he was making use of the receivers on a regular basis, which he will be able to do enough of to keep defenses honest. he will absolutely be able to buy time in the pocket because of his mobility and ability to scramble while he waits for his receivers to get downfield.

the red ares that i think he has to work on are primarily his mid range-intermediate passes. he's shown to be great with the long ball and on short passes and screens. the mid range accuracy can be improved.

he may not be able to run it perfectly and they might have to hold off on a couple plays (just like they would with any rookie or green QB just learning this offense) but they should be able to do enough to help him do well enough as a starter. in the long term, as he improves his accuracy on the mid range stuff, he will be ideal for the AC.

You can honestly come up with a million excuses for any bust in the draft but it still holds true that they reached for him because there was no one else and it didn't work out. You could argue that if he was more talented and a better QB coming out of college, he would have been better and maybe those OCs wouldn't have lost their jobs. Someone had to fall on the sword for the #1 pick not playing well, and it sure as hell wasn't going to be him because he was the #1 pick and he has to be great so it's the OCs fault. .

the first 2 OCs got promoted to HC jobs with other teams and in his second year he did really well for a 2nd year QB.

3rd year he was hurt and on IR most of the season and had a lot mroe issues that who was throwing the ball.

the 4th OC had major philosophical differences from the HC...martz wanted a very aggressive high octane passing game and singletary wanted a more conservative ball control type offense. martz was mike nolan's hire and singletary wanted things doen his own way. smith didn't even see the field that year because martz wanted a gunslinger which wasn't smith.

the 5th OC got fired because the team lost its first three games and the pressure was on him to succceed so he panicked and fired the guy who was doing exactly what singletary told him to do. singletary was going insane and quite irrational that year.

singletary gets fired and the 6th OC gets let go because the new HC wants his own guy in there.

it wasn't smith's fault there was so much turnover.

I just don't like the idea of falling in love with a guy because he's big and athletic but has proven little in terms of refined skills. This isn't the NBA, you don't draft just potential here.

i don't like newton just because he is big and athletic. i like him because he is a good passer as well. the biggest reason i like him is because of his intangibles. he's known for having a very strong work ethic. he has incredible leadership skills. he is strong and confident under pressure and shows great poise. he's got that will to win thing going on and can make big things happen when under pressure and behind. he may not be the most intelligent person to put at QB, but he has more than enough to get the job done. he's very coachable, eager to learn, and has a major desire to get better and become the best at what he does. he's confident in himself.

knock him all you want, but i really don't think you are honestly looking at the whole picture here. there are a good number of teams interested in him and can see the value he can bring.

[panthersphan]

- Trade pick to Buffalo for some picks, draft AJ Green #3

- Trade Smitty to whomever for 1st (yes, I know...)

- Draft DT (Marvin Austin?) w/ other 1st round pick

- Start Jimmy Clausen and tank in 2011

- Draft Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck + AJ Green + Double Trouble = Dynasty

[TheRealDeal]

knock him all you want, but i really don't think you are honestly looking at the whole picture here. there are a good number of teams interested in him and can see the value he can bring.

I'm very interested in drafting him but it would be a gamble more so than some other guys. I'm not sure how he will transition to the NFL and all those intangibles don't always help. Lots of guys have those but don't make it in the NFL. The league is a different beast and sometimes it swallows people.

I'm not sold on him as a passer and I've stated why many times. I just think we are so desperate for a QB and someone who is the anti Clausen that we fall in love without considering things that are actually going to matter in the NFL. We can come up with tons of reasons why he's not this or that and how he'll be the exception and he won't be this guy or that guy but he's a big gamble and there is no way around it.

I'm sure the FO will do their due diligence and if he's the best for our team they will pick him.

[CRA]

I'm very interested in drafting him but it would be a gamble more so than some other guys. I'm not sure how he will transition to the NFL and all those intangibles don't always help. Lots of guys have those but don't make it in the NFL. The league is a different beast and sometimes it swallows people.

I'm not sold on him as a passer and I've stated why many times. I just think we are so desperate for a QB and someone who is the anti Clausen that we fall in love without considering things that are actually going to matter in the NFL. We can come up with tons of reasons why he's not this or that and how he'll be the exception and he won't be this guy or that guy but he's a big gamble and there is no way around it.

I'm sure the FO will do their due diligence and if he's the best for our team they will pick him.

He is a gamble. But I don't think he is any more of a gamble than someone like Fairley. Only difference is if Cam turns out to be legit......he will have a bigger impact on the team than anyone else that could have been drafted.

[rayzor]

He is a gamble. But I don't think he is any more of a gamble than someone like Fairley. Only difference is if Cam turns out to be legit......he will have a bigger impact on the team than anyone else that could have been drafted.

exactly and i don't believe that the value of him busting will be anymore harmful to the team than any other player drafted at #1 overall. the pros massively outweigh the cons with this kid.

[OneBadassCat]

To take a QB with the first pick you pick the QB you know is the absolute best and can be the absolute best in the NFL. I don't think you can say that about Cam Newton.

To be the absolute best in the NFL you have be very bright or at least very football smart when it comes to making reads and audibles, etc. The reason the Steelers, Packers and Patriots can beat anyone is because their QB's can react to each game differently and find ways to defeat the opponent. Are those QB's the most athletic? Definitely no.

Now compare those guys to the Mark Sanchez's, Vince Young's and Jay Cutler's of the NFL. They have good raw skills but with these QB's you always be limited with what you can do. You take away a good aspect of the offense and these QB's will crumble. They cannot carry the team on it's back. In this sense you always be limited or have a ceiling as to high you can go.

I'm just saying for the #1 pick the QB has to be best, and he has to be able to make my team the best. That guy was probably Andrew Luck. Since he's gone, we should probably take someone we know can help us.

[TheRealDeal]

He is a gamble. But I don't think he is any more of a gamble than someone like Fairley. Only difference is if Cam turns out to be legit......he will have a bigger impact on the team than anyone else that could have been drafted.

Agreed on Fairley but guys like Green and Peterson and so on are a lot better at their position than Cam is at his. Unfortunately for us, we picked a terrible year to have the #1 pick because no one is really worth it.

Newton is a gamble at one of the most important and challenging positions in the NFL. It'll be hard to get rid of him because we will have a lot invested in him and might not want to give it up.

I would like to get Green but only if Clausen isn't the QB next year. This year just fuging sucks to have our pick.

[CRA]

Agreed on Fairley but guys like Green and Peterson and so on are a lot better at their position than Cam is at his. Unfortunately for us, we picked a terrible year to have the #1 pick because no one is really worth it.

Newton is a gamble at one of the most important and challenging positions in the NFL. It'll be hard to get rid of him because we will have a lot invested in him and might not want to give it up.

I would like to get Green but only if Clausen isn't the QB next year. This year just fuging sucks to have our pick.

Jimmy Clausen didn't throw a TD pass to a single WR last year......that alone would make bringing in a Green a gamble of a move. Green is 100% reliant on a QB to get him involved.

also, I still don't get how drafting a CB #1 isn't a huge gamble. There is a reason in the past decade none have gone in the top 5. Not sure if any have even gone in the top 10.

You pay anyone at the #1 spot and it will be hard to get rid of them of they are a bust. If you hit on Cam w/ a team like Carolina....the upside is far greater than hitting on anyone else.

[OneBadassCat]

To take a QB with the first pick you pick the QB you know is the absolute best and can be the absolute best in the NFL. I don't think you can say that about Cam Newton.

To be the absolute best in the NFL you have be very bright or at least very football smart when it comes to making reads and audibles, etc. The reason the Steelers, Chargers, Packers and Patriots can beat anyone is because their QB's can react to each game differently and find ways to defeat the opponent. Are those QB's the most athletic? Definitely no.

Now compare those guys to the Mark Sanchez's, Vince Young's and Jay Cutler's of the NFL. They have good raw skills but with these QB's you will always be limited with what you can do. You take away a good aspect of the offense and these QB's will crumble. They cannot carry the team on it's back. In this sense you always be limited or have a ceiling as to high you can go.

I'm just saying for the #1 pick the QB has to be best, and he has to be able to make my team the best. That guy was probably Andrew Luck. Since he's gone, we should probably take someone we know can help us.

Cam would have to grow a ton as a QB because even though he is a running threat he will be figured out sooner rather than later. He won't be able to run like he did college, he'll get murdered that way.

[TheRealDeal]

Jimmy Clausen didn't throw a TD pass to a single WR last year......that alone would make bringing in a Green a gamble of a move. Green is 100% reliant on a QB to get him involved.

also, I still don't get how drafting a CB #1 isn't a huge gamble. There is a reason in the past decade none have gone in the top 5. Not sure if any have even gone in the top 10.

You pay anyone at the #1 spot and it will be hard to get rid of them of they are a bust. If you hit on Cam w/ a team like Carolina....the upside is far greater than hitting on anyone else.

You must have missed the part where I said that I want Green ONLY IF CLAUSEN ISN'T THE STARTER NEXT YEAR.

I know that CB and WR don't go #1 but they are the two best players in the draft and after them it's a step down. Usually there is a clear cut guy at a "traditional" #1 pick spot that gets taken but this year there isn't.

I'd rather take the best player if I had to pick there and not force myself to take someone just because they play a certain position. Newton wasn't on anyone's radar until Luck stayed in school and it's sad that now we are propping him up just because we want a QB that bad.

[CRA]

You must have missed the part where I said that I want Green ONLY IF CLAUSEN ISN'T THE STARTER NEXT YEAR.

I know that CB and WR don't go #1 but they are the two best players in the draft and after them it's a step down. Usually there is a clear cut guy at a "traditional" #1 pick spot that gets taken but this year there isn't.

I'd rather take the best player if I had to pick there and not force myself to take someone just because they play a certain position. Newton wasn't on anyone's radar until Luck stayed in school and it's sad that now we are propping him up just because we want a QB that bad.

I think Cam's Heisman and National Championship season put him on the radar. I don't think he is being propped up.....kid has great physical tools, is a leader, and has great intangibles. He would still have all those things if Luck entered. With Luck entering I still think Cam would be in the mix w/ all the other top guys mentioned after Luck goes #1.

[MaineManPanther]

Jimmy Clausen didn't throw a TD pass to a single WR last year......that alone would make bringing in a Green a gamble of a move. Green is 100% reliant on a QB to get him involved.

also, I still don't get how drafting a CB #1 isn't a huge gamble. There is a reason in the past decade none have gone in the top 5. Not sure if any have even gone in the top 10.

You pay anyone at the #1 spot and it will be hard to get rid of them of they are a bust. If you hit on Cam w/ a team like Carolina....the upside is far greater than hitting on anyone else.

Getting Green is more of a long term move. If Clausen manages to play well then it works, if Clausen doesn't then the FO will find a good QB and Green becomes a big asset.

CB isnt a gamble simply because no one was drafted. That is due to how highly rated most conerbacks were, the need of most teams, and the talent of the other postions. It ususally just doesnt all fall in line to draft one.

Very true. Everyone is a possible bust. But some more then others. The problem is the downside of getting a QB hurts you much worse. It comes down to what your FO thinks of them after all the studying and tape. Given there track record if there high on him, go for it.