#1 Overall Draft Picks in the Last 20 Years ... Boom or Bust

[paulSM]

I think the reason why the #1 pick is a poisoned chalice is simply because some teams select the best player potentially, rather than the best player. It's difficult logic to select someone with a lower potential ceiling, but a higher current ability as it seems like there could be a better player a few years down the line.

In my opinion a franchise can't survive on those picks, you have to make the first round count and by which you take the player who is most likely to succeed at the next level. Who really cares if 2-3 players turned out to be a bit better around 4-5 years later...

I agree with this logic 100% TRADE THE PICK!!! Man, as much as I like Fairley... this logic is talking me into Green/Peterson as I think they are the best combo of Ability/Potential

[OchoNueve]

I think catching a unicorn or leprechaun is more likely than another team trading up with the Panthers for the first pick. It would be cool if it was realistic, but the reason we want to trade it is the same reason nobody wants to trade for it.

[nagai]

Not to bust your bubble, but this is a deeply flawed statistical analysis.

This is true. For a start, the sample size is way too small.

[mountainpantherfan]

I think the reason why the #1 pick is a poisoned chalice is simply because some teams select the best player potentially, rather than the best player. It's difficult logic to select someone with a lower potential ceiling, but a higher current ability as it seems like there could be a better player a few years down the line.

In my opinion a franchise can't survive on those picks, you have to make the first round count and by which you take the player who is most likely to succeed at the next level. Who really cares if 2-3 players turned out to be a bit better around 4-5 years later...

I completely agree with this. And I think there are players that are legitment options that aren't being discussed. And a lot of people have written some players off due to the "impact player at an impact position" comment. But I think a guy like Von Miller would be an impact player in a Ron Rivera defense and a guy like Kyle Rudolph would be an impact player in a Chud offense.

Not saying they are or should be the pick but Miller and Rudolph are both players that I think are more likely to be successful in the NFL than Cam Newton and Nick Fairley. Choosing between the imedient impact of a player like Miller or the great potentiel of a player like Newton...hard choice. Glad I don't have it riding on my shoulders...

[Mr ocho nueve]

So, we need to take a OL with the first pick? right?