Draft day plunge for Ryan Mallett?

[teeray]

Mallett can make throws right now that 60% of NFL QB's can't throw.

He is a BIG TIME sleeper in this draft. I have him number 2 right now behind Cam.

But there is a lot of weird whispers about this guy that actually makes me more nervous about him in regards to character than I do Cam Newton.

He will probably move to third behind Gabbert once I can actually see more of Gabbert and because of these whispers about him.

But make no mistake, he has the ability to be a BIG TIME NFL QB. Especially if these rumors are false.

I still have a hunch he goes in the middle to late first round to someone despite all the whispers. Just a hunch.

[mav1234]

he could be the next Dan Marino in some ways... I read the other day that people though Marino was an idiot and a drug abuser coming out... and hell, Marino was about as statuesque as you get.

By all accounts, even fans of Arkansas, the guy is not exactly a bright bulb, but hey... if he's there late, I wouldn't mind dropping Pike for him.

[grateflday]

No thanks to any QB that drops out of the 1st round, etc, etc. We already have Clausen for that experiment. It is either Cam at #1 or pass on any QB this draft (unfortunately)

[davos]

Devlin & Dalton aren't bad choices if they are there in the 4th. At least we can get someone to beat out Pike and compete with a vet. Pick a QB if there is one there with a great deal of potential.

[rayzor]

I know walterfootball writer thinks he is a idiot and will be Ryan Leaf 2.0.

They say watch out for his wonderlic score.

yeah, iv'e been comparin him to leaf and russell for a good while now. thought it was funny when they started saying something similar, but its true.

he's a big guy with a cannon for an arm. i am so glad we are past the point in time where we look at that and allow it to cloud our judgement and cover up his lack of talent and lack of intangibles. a few years ago he would have been the consensus #1.

[rayzor]

No thanks to any QB that drops out of the 1st round, etc, etc. We already have Clausen for that experiment. It is either Cam at #1 or pass on any QB this draft (unfortunately)

ditto.

no QB after the first should be taken at all. i really don't want to bother with any of them. a team that is serious about getting a frranchise QB will get them in the place you are more likley to find them...the first round. it's a crapshoot of epic proportions trying to get one any other way. first rounder doesn't guarantee a franchise QB, but it is the best place to find one.

[MHS831]

Man if anything about Mallett's character concerns are true I don't want to touch him in any round of this draft. =|

edit: as a note, and take this for the rumor it is, some have claimed Mallett is addicted to coke, has had falling outs with coaches, and he's supposedly not got very high football smarts. but, he is a leader on the field at least, and god can he make some amazing throws.

if that above stuff wasn't true then yeah, I'd take him in the third. He's like the antithesis of Clausen... he couldn't scramble away from pressure if he wanted to, so he's have to get the ball out!

He also has a slow delivery, poor mobility, and accuracy issues. Throw in a drug problem (which I say is probably valid because Matt Jones came from that Arkansas QB culture) and I would not take him. I might draft him in the sixth or seventh, make him take drug tests weekly, and have him play for the minimum. Somebody will take him sooner and try to rehab him and coach him up.

[MHS831]

ditto.

no QB after the first should be taken at all. i really don't want to bother with any of them. a team that is serious about getting a frranchise QB will get them in the place you are more likley to find them...the first round. it's a crapshoot of epic proportions trying to get one any other way. first rounder doesn't guarantee a franchise QB, but it is the best place to find one.

The stat I read was interesting, but I don't remember where I saw it. It was in an article that analyzed the success rate of 1st round QBs.

60% of first rounders go on to successful careers in the NFL (I thought that was low, but it illustrates Hurney's degree of success).

50% of first round QBs go on to successful careers in the NFL.

I remember questioning how the reporter defined success, and it was probably in the article, but I can't remember where I found it.

I agree with what you say. It seems successful QBs are either first rounders or they come, about equally, from anywhere else. There are probably as many undrafted free agent QBs in the NFL as there are second rounders.

[teeray]

The stat I read was interesting, but I don't remember where I saw it. It was in an article that analyzed the success rate of 1st round QBs.

60% of first rounders go on to successful careers in the NFL (I thought that was low, but it illustrates Hurney's degree of success).

50% of first round QBs go on to successful careers in the NFL.

I remember questioning how the reporter defined success, and it was probably in the article, but I can't remember where I found it.

I agree with what you say. It seems successful QBs are either first rounders or they come, about equally, from anywhere else. There are probably as many undrafted free agent QBs in the NFL as there are second rounders.

I am not sure that is correct. I would like to see the article.

I charted QB against RB, WR, and DT the last 5 years and QB was the safest of the three positions to draft in the first round.

If those stats are true it is likely bolstered by the staggering success rate of offensive lineman taken in the first round. They only have a bust rate of like 19%.

Here are a couple articles from walterfootball that are really good with some of these things:

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftquarterbackriskmyth.php

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftoffensivetackles.php

The first one is pretty interesting especially when you have guys like Yas saying DT is a safer pick than QB when they are not.

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/18630/draft-needs-carolina-panthers

There generally is a much lower bust factor for a defensive tackle than a quarterback and that’s why I’m thinking Auburn’s Nick Fairley might be the guy Carolina goes with as the No. 1 pick.