Someone please tell me how to pick a franchise QB?

[Jon Snow]

To me there are only three franchise QB's in the NFL at the moment. P. Manning, T. Brady and D. Brees. There could be three more in Rivers, Rogers and Matt what's his name in Atlanta. Too soon to say on them yet but I will give you Rivers and Rogers. So if that's the case, look at how many QB's were drafted in the last 10 years regardless of round and tell me the precent chance of getting a franchise QB.

I don't want to hear about the guys drafted in the last two or three years as you can't honestly say that any are franchise QB's with a straight face this early in their career.

[monstercat]

You can roll your eyes if you want, but some of those scouts were absolutely sure that Jimmy was ready to start right away, and at least one or two of them liked him more than Bradford.

That just goes that show that some of these scouts don't really know anymore than the rest of us. And FTR, I agreed with them at the time, which is why I'm now rethinking the notion that playing in a pro style in college is as important as I used to believe. My thinking now is that physical talent is much much more important.

[TheRealDeal]

To me there are only three franchise QB's in the NFL at the moment. P. Manning, T. Brady and D. Brees. There could be three more in Rivers, Rogers and Matt what's his name in Atlanta. Too soon to say on them yet but I will give you Rivers and Rogers. So if that's the case, look at how many QB's were drafted in the last 10 years regardless of round and tell me the precent chance of getting a franchise QB.

I don't want to hear about the guys drafted in the last two or three years as you can't honestly say that any are franchise QB's with a straight face this early in their career.

You should read this.

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/forum/carolina-panthers/53038-elite-good-game-manager-decent-bad.html

You can roll your eyes if you want, but some of those scouts were absolutely sure that Jimmy was ready to start right away, and at least one or two of them liked him more than Bradford.

That just goes that show that some of these scouts don't really know anymore than the rest of us. And FTR, I agreed with them at the time, which is why I'm now rethinking the notion that playing in a pro style in college is as important as I used to believe. My thinking now is that physical talent is much much more important.

You need a combo of both. Some thought Clausen would be fine because of his "pedigree" and offense he was in and so forth but lacked in physical tools (some people also saw this and said 2nd round). So now you're saying go the complete opposite way with Cam and go with raw physical attributes.

I think you need a combo of both coming out to have a headstart on playing early and I don't think anyone coming out this year has that combo needed.

[MHS831]

Great question. I look at the successful QBs, and I would say intelligence has to be the #1 criteria. Secondly, arm strength. After that, who the heck knows? Work ethic? Character? Leadership ability?

[MHS831]

To me there are only three franchise QB's in the NFL at the moment. P. Manning, T. Brady and D. Brees. There could be three more in Rivers, Rogers and Matt what's his name in Atlanta. Too soon to say on them yet but I will give you Rivers and Rogers. So if that's the case, look at how many QB's were drafted in the last 10 years regardless of round and tell me the precent chance of getting a franchise QB.

I don't want to hear about the guys drafted in the last two or three years as you can't honestly say that any are franchise QB's with a straight face this early in their career.

So much depends on the offensive scheme, WRs, running game, defense, coaches, OL, and TEs, it is really hard to say. I think a franchise QB needs the franchise established around him to be one. Some think the QB will establish the franchise, which is not true.

As for the percentage, it is probably between 15% and 20% for first rounders. For second rounders, much lower. Everyone around here is on Clausen's butt as if we traded away three firsts to land him. He is a second rounder. That is all. 48th pick in the 2010 draft.

[monstercat]

You should read this.

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/forum/carolina-panthers/53038-elite-good-game-manager-decent-bad.html

You need a combo of both. Some thought Clausen would be fine because of his "pedigree" and offense he was in and so forth but lacked in physical tools (some people also saw this and said 2nd round). So now you're saying go the complete opposite way with Cam and go with raw physical attributes.

I think you need a combo of both coming out to have a headstart on playing early and I don't think anyone coming out this year has that combo needed.

Really? According to Walterfootball, Jimmy had it all...

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2010jclausen.php

Strengths:

Solid size and adequate bulk

Very good arm strength; can fit balls into tight windows

Extremely quick, snappy release

Great accuracy

Nice hip torque on throws

Gets rid of ball quickly

Very decisive with the football

Takes what defense gives him; doesn't force ball/will throw away

Elite football IQ

Great touch

Well versed in NFL offense

Good sense of timing

Will step up/out of pocket

Knows how to read coverage

Sees the entire field; great vision

Very polished for a true junior

Shown outstanding development from freshman to junior season

Extremely intelligent

Ice in his veins; great poise

Mentally tough; plays through pain

Big leader

Confident

Film room rat

Elite intangibles

Good genetics and very well coached

Spent 3.5 years in a West Coast offense

[CRA]

Really? According to Walterfootball, Jimmy had it all...

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2010jclausen.php

Just looked at the first 3 on the list......solid size? I think Jimmy is probably on slightly smaller than the ideal NFL QB. Don't think many would argue that.

Extremely quick, snappy release? I think he easily had the slowest one of any QB who started a game in the NFL this year....

[TheRealDeal]

Really? According to Walterfootball, Jimmy had it all...

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2010jclausen.php

Some were more right than others I guess. You can find a counterexample of anything for anyone if you look hard enough. There were plenty of questions about him and his size/strength coming out, as well as his leadership and attitude.

[CLTPanther]

Pure Luck

[teeray]

You analysis conveniently ignores that fact that a lot more QB's are drafted in teh Top 33 picks every year than DT, WR, and RB. Therefore the bust rate (in %'s) is actually higher for QB's.

The top QB's ARE taken in the Top 33 picks. However, there are a ton of busts taken in the Top 33 (trying to find one of those franchise guys).

You are conveniently using your own facts because that is false.

The last five drafts in the first round these positions were drafted:

QB: 12

RB: 17

DT: 15

WR: 14

Actually QB is last on the list of number of picks used on that position in the first round.

Additionally, they have more successes than failures.

Only three of those 12 picks were complete wash outs (Leinart, Russell, Quinn)

Three it is probably to early to tell (Bradford, The Golden Calf of Bristol, and Stafford because he has been injured often)

Two have been fairly successful (Young and Sanchez)

And 4 are pro bowlers QB's (Ryan, Cutler, Flacco, and Freeman)

So out of the 12 QB's taken in the first round the last 5 years only three have been actual busts to this point in their careers.

In the other positions I listed the failure rate is MUCH MUCH higher. Nice try though.

[Peppers90 NC]

have a competent coaching staff, have good players around him and make sure he has leadership skills along with common football qb skills. Tell me a young good qb who doesnt have those ingredients.

[teeray]

As far as DT goes out of the 15 I mentioned that were drafted in the first round only 2 have made pro bowls that i can find (correct me if I am wrong) Suh, and Ngata.

[monstercat]

You should read this.

http://www.carolinahuddle.com/forum/carolina-panthers/53038-elite-good-game-manager-decent-bad.html

You need a combo of both. Some thought Clausen would be fine because of his "pedigree" and offense he was in and so forth but lacked in physical tools (some people also saw this and said 2nd round). So now you're saying go the complete opposite way with Cam and go with raw physical attributes.

I think you need a combo of both coming out to have a headstart on playing early and I don't think anyone coming out this year has that combo needed.

Some were more right than others I guess. You can find a counterexample of anything for anyone if you look hard enough. There were plenty of questions about him and his size/strength coming out, as well as his leadership and attitude.

Guess who has size, strength, leadership ability, and athleticism out the ying yang?

[Peppers90 NC]

It seems like the so called experts get it right about 50% of the time.You have to think that someone in this draft will be a franchise qb.Who will it be and why?How does a guy like Matt Cassel never start an NFL game and get drafted by the patriots?Even his on college coach could not access his talent.

Luckily, you dont have to worry about this.