Someone please tell me how to pick a franchise QB?

[nagai]

How can this guy call The Golden Calf of Bristol and Cutler busts (26-27-60 rule)? I want to see a bigger sample size.

[thunderraiden]

How can this guy call The Golden Calf of Bristol and Cutler busts (26-27-60 rule)? I want to see a bigger sample size.

yea ummm cutlers a bust bro .sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

This is how:

Peyton manning. Ryan Leaf. Leaf. Manning. Manning. Leaf. Manning is more polished. Leaf throws a better deep ball. Leaf is built like a tree trunk. Manning is the ultimate student of the game. Manning is now. Leaf is the future.

As Bill Polian lay in his bed a week or so before April's NFL draft, sleep was fleeting. "The football demons kept waking me up," says Polian, who last December became president of the Indianapolis Colts and had the first pick in the draft. "They came jumping out at the oddest times." They were telling Polian that, based on recent drafts, there was a better than 50-50 chance he would pick a quarterback who would fall flat on his face as a pro.

Although he favored Tennessee's Manning over Washington State's Leaf, Polian had trouble putting this baby to bed. He had watched tape of each of Manning's 1,505 passes for the Vols as well as Leaf's 880 for the Cougars. Then twice more he watched every pass that Manning and Leaf threw during the 1997 season, charting on separate legal pads each player's success or failure in making tough throws, long throws, throws on the move. He asked new Colts coach Jim Mora to look twice at every pass that Leaf and Manning threw in college. Quarterbacks coach Bruce Arians viewed every pass four times; other staffers watched three times each.

Polian paid quarterback guru Bill Walsh $5,000 to analyze tape of both quarterbacks. He grilled former NFL quarterback Phil Simms and Vanderbilt coach Woody Widenhofer, both of whom had studied Leaf and Manning. Polian was so meticulous in putting the two players through separate workouts in early April that he even noted how accurately each of them could throw a long pass without striding (Leaf 60 yards, Manning 58, by the way). All told, Polian had spent about 14 hours a day over a 28-day span studying Leaf and Manning. "Did we overanalyze?" he says. "Absolutely."

[Mother Grabber]

You can pick your franchise and you can pick your QB, but you can't pick your franchise QB.

[rodeo]

no one starts an NFL game before going through the draft process.

this system needs to change imo.

[Mr. Scot]

this system needs to change imo.

Maurice Clarrett tried already (sort of).

[Shermdog]

fwiw, cat scratch reader has a couple articles on this. one talks about the 26-27-60 rule (at least 26 wonderlic, 27 starts, and 60% completions). another has the bill parcell's rule...guys in this draft that passed the 26-27-60 rule (of course minus the wonderlic) are Gabbert, Ponder, McElroy, Dalton.

the ones that passed the parcells rule are Kaepernick, Stanzi, and Dalton.

only one to pass both is dalton.

Im sold on Dalton in the 3rd. Hopefully with our compensatory 3rd.

[thefuzz]

I have put it here many times, but this is my deal.

6-3 and above.

60% + passer in college

3 year starter

2-1 TD/INT ratio

Must be able to make every throw, but does not have to have a "cannon"

If you have all of these, IMO you stand a much better chance of making it.

[teeray]

The scouts aren't as wrong as you have been led to believe.

13 teams this season had 10 wins or more. 11 of those teams were QB's by players selected in the top 33 picks of the draft. 10 in the first round and Brees was #1 pick of second round.

Only two were QB's taken after the second round (Cassell and Brady)

This also doesn't account for Rivers who is a franchise QB but whose team had a bad year.

5 of six QB's that played in the Pro Bowl were taken in the first 33 picks the only exception was Cassell.

There is actually much higher risks in the first round with DT, WR, and RB than a QB. They just don't get the publicity of a high QB pick

[monstercat]

This is how:

The thing is though, Polian is not the first one to go through this and other GM's did just as much research and still got a dud.

BTW, has anybody else noticed that most of the QB's who pass the 27-60-27 test, usually passed for 60% in their first year as a full time starter? If they can't do it in the first year, they usually don't ever do it. Just look at Locker and Vick...they were both 50 something % every year they started in college.

[teeray]

I have put it here many times, but this is my deal.

6-3 and above.

60% + passer in college

3 year starter

2-1 TD/INT ratio

Must be able to make every throw, but does not have to have a "cannon"

If you have all of these, IMO you stand a much better chance of making it.

Are you Bill Parcells?? He has the same formula. The problem is that so few meet that criteria you would never get to draft a QB.

The closest person to meeting that criteria in this years draft is TJ Yates. He doesn't quite reach the 2/1 TD to INT ratio for his entire career (58TD 46 INT) I don't think anyone is even close to that criteria.

Also, Andrew Luck would not have met that criteria if he came out so we would have to pass on him as well. He was only a two year starter.

[MadHatter]

The scouts aren't as wrong as you have been led to believe.

13 teams this season had 10 wins or more. 11 of those teams were QB's by players selected in the top 33 picks of the draft. 10 in the first round and Brees was #1 pick of second round.

Only two were QB's taken after the second round (Cassell and Brady)

This also doesn't account for Rivers who is a franchise QB but whose team had a bad year.

5 of six QB's that played in the Pro Bowl were taken in the first 33 picks the only exception was Cassell.

There is actually much higher risks in the first round with DT, WR, and RB than a QB. They just don't get the publicity of a high QB pick

You analysis conveniently ignores that fact that a lot more QB's are drafted in teh Top 33 picks every year than DT, WR, and RB. Therefore the bust rate (in %'s) is actually higher for QB's.

The top QB's ARE taken in the Top 33 picks. However, there are a ton of busts taken in the Top 33 (trying to find one of those franchise guys).

[monstercat]

Damn, I just went back and read some of the scouting reports on Clausen, and judging from some of those, we have a stud right now and there is no need to look any further.

[Hoenheim]

Damn, I just went back and read some of the scouting reports on Clausen, and judging from some of those, we have a stud right now and there is no need to look any further.

LOL