Great article on drafting QBs for later

[MHS831]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=NextLevel1

Great article with stats that detail the art of drafting (and developing) a QB.

This is why I think the following:

1. It is too early to give up on Clausen

2. Clausen should not start next season

3. Don't forget about Pike--coach the young backups hard. Extra film, drills, etc.

4. Hurney has horribly neglected the position in the draft since arriving.

5. We should sign an older veteran and draft yet another QB with solid leadership skills, Football IQ, arm strength, mechanics, and work ethic.

In 2012 take Clausen and Pike out of the oven. If our franchise QB is not there, draft another. In 2013, take the QB we draft in 2011 out of the oven. Coaching them up is key.

Or you could pay McNabbs and Hasselbecks millions to come in to display how skills erode after age 35 every year.

DO NOT LAUGH: This article predicted that a QB who threw more pics in college than TDs would become a starter and do well--sorta. He looked pretty good at Seattle at times. Good call. QBs who I would consider in the mid to later rounds this season, with the primary reasons beside each, as well as estimated round available:

1. Pat Devlin, Delaware: (Football IQ, size, pretty good arm) 3rd round.

2. Nathan Enderle, Idaho: (Arm strength, touch, reading coverages) 4th round

3. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa: (Intelligence, height, football IQ, Improvement in college) 4th-5th round

4. TJ Yates (Experience, intelligence) 7th round

I know that these guys were not spectacular in college for the most part, which is why they are available late. However, if they continue to improve and get coached, you might be surprised what they can do.

This response for those who miss the point of this article and post: Stanzi and Yates suck? Re read the article.

[mj4life]

you have to have people on staff who can develop qb's(which we haven't up to now)hopefully that will change under our new staff

[Seamonk]

I think we can trade down and still get a good QB in the first to develop and still pick up a Vet. I really like Stanzi though.. I think he'll go higher than 4th.

[MHS831]

I think we can trade down and still get a good QB in the first to develop and still pick up a Vet. I really like Stanzi though.. I think he'll go higher than 4th.

Stanzi and Devlin are very smart. Don't know about Enderle's intelligence. I agree that they will probably rise, however, sometimes after the first wave of QBs taken there is a drought for a while and guys projected to go higher are still on the board. Pike, for example, was a 3rd-4th round projection.

I personally think Devlin is worth a third rounder and I would not play him under any circumstances until 2013.

I agree about the coaches. All the difference in the world. Fox wanted a veteran game manager: did not have to coach them up much. Rip and Davidson screwed up our game managers. I think they contributed to Clausen's suckage.

[Cyberjag]

One other thing that isn't mentioned--QBs who are drafted high and pressed into service early are often on bad teams. Bad teams are generally bad at least in part because of poor coaching. And the Panthers had just plain horrific coaching at the OC and QB positions for the past couple of years.

A lot can change with the new regime, where Clausen is concerned. There's no way any reasonable person should give up on him, but if Shula doesn't work out or Chud goes to another team after a year we're probably looking at the next Alex Smith.

Pike, on the other hand...

[grateflday]

I think many or alot of us understand the dynamics of starting a rookie QB right away vs letting him sit. Whether or not Clause or Pike can develope is still up in the air. BUT I am not in favor of taking another QB late in the draft. Not saying its this draft, but one of these times a franchise has to take their shot at 1st round talent at the position.

[MHS831]

One other thing that isn't mentioned--QBs who are drafted high and pressed into service early are often on bad teams. Bad teams are generally bad at least in part because of poor coaching. And the Panthers had just plain horrific coaching at the OC and QB positions for the past couple of years.

A lot can change with the new regime, where Clausen is concerned. There's no way any reasonable person should give up on him, but if Shula doesn't work out or Chud goes to another team after a year we're probably looking at the next Alex Smith.

Pike, on the other hand...

That is true. People often compare the first or second overall pick with a QB taken later, like an Aaron Rogers. Apples and oranges. First, Rogers learned for a few years under a hall of famer and inherited a good team. To compare him to Alex Smith is not fair, but a harsh reality.

[mav1234]

I like Stanzi quite a bit but I think a guy would need to really fall for us to get a QB this draft.

[Cavscout]

Dalton may be the best QB to come out of this class, IMO

[mav1234]

Hopefully we'll get to see Dalton and Stanzi in the Senior Bowl, along with Locker etc.

[Lords0fPain]

Should check out this article, as well:

Does defense really win titles?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=NextLevel5

With the changing rules that give offense the advantage in recent years.

[MHS831]

Should check out this article, as well:

Does defense really win titles?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?page=NextLevel5

With the changing rules that give offense the advantage in recent years.

Good read. Interesting. I sort of go by 2 rules: 1) Supply and demand, and 2) importance of position in determining the outcome of games (An average QB could be more valuable than a superstar safety, for example)

These are a bit subjective, but I would go after the most rare player at the most important position. As I see it:

Rarest Position players in terms of supply and demand: 1. QB, 2. OLT, 3. CB, 4. DE, 5. WR, 6. DT, 7. LB

Rarest position players in terms of depth of draft: 1) QB, 2. OLT, 3. WR, 4. CB, 5. DE, 6. LB, 7. DT

Position Importance in determining outcome of games: 1) QB, 2. CB, 3. DE, 4. LOT, 5. WR, 6. LB, 7. DT

I would also add that the higher the importance and rarity, the more the chance for a bust. Several reasons of this thinking. The players who are more rare are drafted earlier than they should be. They play before they are ready. They, in general, go to weaker teams.

Since the Panthers are OK at LT, DE, and LB, throw them out. That leaves QB, WR, and DT. Some may argue that WR in not a need, but when we go 4 WR sets--or five--we need a true #1 and SS in the slot.

As it turns out, the offensive postitions are how to get the most bang for your buck.

Based on need, the Panthers will probably draft QB, DT, or WR in the first round--possibly CB, but doubtful. If they do not trade down, do not expect a QB unless Gabbert's stock increases dramatically. So it comes down to WR and DT. Since DT's are more common than stud WRs and do not usually determine the outcome as much as a WR can (at least on the surface), and seeing that the offense needs the most help, AND since DT is the deepest position in the draft, smart money says the Panthers go offense and draft a WR in the first. They could draft 2 defensive tackles later and sign a free agent. Another reason for this? A top WR is probably more expensive than a DT, barring Haynesworth, so the free agent market will sap less money.

Just speculation, but it is what i would do.

[eViL jEsTeR]

i think 6 years from now people are going to be shocked at how well TJ yates has done. a tarheel fan, i've watched him play for years and he's pretty good. he will of course fly under the radar and be a late round pick, sit on the bench but one day get thrust onto the field after an injury and will earn a trade to another team to be a starter much like cassel.

i like yates much better than pike.

[MHS831]

Yates will be a good backup who could continue to develop and become good. Matt Flynn, but a bit better.