AJ Green or Nick Fairley

[MonkeyMan]

Anyone have a link to info about next years draft if there is a lockout?

[KJDaniel31]

1. You have way to small a sample size to base your opinion on. Fourteen Qb's in ten years is very small. If there were as many Dual QB's as pocket passers then you would see there wins and playoff apperances go way up.

The reason there aren't as many is that most teams don't want them. Most GMs are smart and know at least what doesn't work, and it's obvious that a running QB has never won a Super Bowl. They get moved to WR, sit as backups (where they are incredibly valuable IMO) or just dont get picked. There is a reason, as all the evidence shows: they just dont work out.

2. You act as if the reason the aftermentioned failed is because they were dual.

Yes, they fail because they don't develop the football IQ needed to understand coverages and find open receivers. From Pop-Warner these guys take off running instead of learning to find receivers, manipulate coverages with fakes/eyes, and therefore make it nearly impossible to teach them these skills later. The same can be said for speed WRs who never learn to run routes, or speed RBs who never learn to set up blocks, 7 ft centers who never learn post moves, so on and so on. Players who rely purely on speed and don't develop necessary skills fail in the Pros. Not every QB/RB/WR with speed fails to learn these things, which is why there is a clear break when you look at their success.

3. No top dual QB?

Steve Young

Donavan Mcnabb

Fran Tarkenton

John Elway

To name a few.

The only one on this list who qualifies as a running QB is Fran Tarkenton (back to him in a minute). The others are well known for their ability to stand in the pocket, make good decisions, manipulate defenses and find open receivers. None are accused of being run first QBs. Below are college stats, a great barometer of a running/pocket QB (pass yards per rush yard).

Donovan McNabb: 8,389 Pass 77tds; 1,561 Rush 19 Tds (5.3 to 1)

Steve Young: 7,733 Pass 56Td; 1,084 Rush 18 Tds (7.1 to 1)

John Elway: 9,349 Pass 77Td; -254 Rush, 5tds (infinite)

Just because you are athletic doesn't mean you are a running QB, but rather its your ability or lack thereof to be successful in the pocket.

Compare to:

Michael Vick: 3,074 Pass 20Tds; 1,202 Rush 16Tds (2.5 to 1)

Vince Young: 6,040 Pass 44Tds; 3,127 Rush 37Tds (1.9 to 1)

Cam Newton: 2,868 Pass 30Tds; 1,284 Rush 20 Tds (2.2 to 1)

Notice the difference? One group excels at throwing the ball, and the other excels at running.

::Can't wait for the 1 in 1000 exception to this::

Just being a dual QB doesn't mean you wont be successfull.

Awesome....name the running QB (not an athletic pocket passer) who won a Super Bowl.

Now, to Fran Tarkenton. I searched quite a bit and came up empty on his college stats. However, its generally accepted that he was the greatest running QB prior to Randall Cunningham. Remember how I claimed that running QBs struggle in the playoffs when they have to play great teams? Consider Fran's 3 separate tries in the Super Bowl (vs 3 different teams):

SB 8: 18/28 182 Yards, 0 Td 1 Int 67.9 Rating

SB9: 11/26 102 Yards, 0 Td 3 Int 14.1 Rating

SB11: 17/35 205 Yards, 1 Td 2 INT, 57.2 Rating

He ran for a TOTAL of 17 yards and 1 TD in all 3 games. This was in the 70's....so you are going to have to go back to the early days of the forward pass to find a running QB who won a title.

So, again I ask...why follow a pattern that has lead to nothing but failure?

[KJDaniel31]

Second Look at the QB's he listed. Do you honeslty think the reason most of those didn't pan out is because they ran, and not that they were just bad QB's as a whole?

Yes, I do. Many were very solid QBs, they just could never win in the playoffs. Honestly, how many examples does there need to be before you see the pattern? Does the complete lack of a winning running QB in the playoffs not stand out to you?

Also there are a significantly short list of QB's who run as opposed to stand in the pocket. Obviously they are going to be skewed by the sheer number advantage. He listed sixteen in the past decade. There were 13 QB's drafted in the 2010 draft.

So ask yourself why does that number advantage exist? There are no shortage of running QBs every year in college football, and they are often far more successful in college. Why aren't more drafted? Why aren't more started in the NFL? Why hasn't a single one won a SB?

I'd just rather give my team a chance to win a title, wouldn't you?

[MaineManPanther]

The reason there aren't as many is that most teams don't want them. Most GMs are smart and know at least what doesn't work, and it's obvious that a running QB has never won a Super Bowl. They get moved to WR, sit as backups (where they are incredibly valuable IMO) or just dont get picked. There is a reason, as all the evidence shows: they just dont work out.

Yes, they fail because they don't develop the football IQ needed to understand coverages and find open receivers. From Pop-Warner these guys take off running instead of learning to find receivers, manipulate coverages with fakes/eyes, and therefore make it nearly impossible to teach them these skills later. The same can be said for speed WRs who never learn to run routes, or speed RBs who never learn to set up blocks, 7 ft centers who never learn post moves, so on and so on. Players who rely purely on speed and don't develop necessary skills fail in the Pros. Not every QB/RB/WR with speed fails to learn these things, which is why there is a clear break when you look at their success.

The only one on this list who qualifies as a running QB is Fran Tarkenton (back to him in a minute). The others are well known for their ability to stand in the pocket, make good decisions, manipulate defenses and find open receivers. None are accused of being run first QBs. Below are college stats, a great barometer of a running/pocket QB (pass yards per rush yard).

Donovan McNabb: 8,389 Pass 77tds; 1,561 Rush 19 Tds (5.3 to 1)

Steve Young: 7,733 Pass 56Td; 1,084 Rush 18 Tds (7.1 to 1)

John Elway: 9,349 Pass 77Td; -254 Rush, 5tds (infinite)

Just because you are athletic doesn't mean you are a running QB, but rather its your ability or lack thereof to be successful in the pocket.

Compare to:

Michael Vick: 3,074 Pass 20Tds; 1,202 Rush 16Tds (2.5 to 1)

Vince Young: 6,040 Pass 44Tds; 3,127 Rush 37Tds (1.9 to 1)

Cam Newton: 2,868 Pass 30Tds; 1,284 Rush 20 Tds (2.2 to 1)

Notice the difference? One group excels at throwing the ball, and the other excels at running.

::Can't wait for the 1 in 1000 exception to this::

Awesome....name the running QB (not an athletic pocket passer) who won a Super Bowl.

Now, to Fran Tarkenton. I searched quite a bit and came up empty on his college stats. However, its generally accepted that he was the greatest running QB prior to Randall Cunningham. Remember how I claimed that running QBs struggle in the playoffs when they have to play great teams? Consider Fran's 3 separate tries in the Super Bowl (vs 3 different teams):

SB 8: 18/28 182 Yards, 0 Td 1 Int 67.9 Rating

SB9: 11/26 102 Yards, 0 Td 3 Int 14.1 Rating

SB11: 17/35 205 Yards, 1 Td 2 INT, 57.2 Rating

He ran for a TOTAL of 17 yards and 1 TD in all 3 games. This was in the 70's....so you are going to have to go back to the early days of the forward pass to find a running QB who won a title.

So, again I ask...why follow a pattern that has lead to nothing but failure?

Numerous QB's who don't run alot, also have problems going through reads, finding WR's, etc..how do you know the reasons that some running QB's struggle with this arent due to the same reasons many pocket passers stuggle; and has nothing to do with running?

To judge wether one is a running QB more then another (or one in general) I personally think one should go off the number of times they chose to ran when they had the ball.

Carrer percentage NFL stats: (Rounded)

Culepepper: Ran 13 percent of the time when had the ball in his hands.

McNair: 13 percent

Flutie: 13 percent

Smith: 13 percent

Thigpen :13 percent

Wallace: 9 percent

Gradkowski: 10 percent

Carter : 14 percent

Young: 14 percent

If you don't count Young as a running QB then you can't count numerous others on your list. The fact that Young was great in the pocket,read defences etc..Does not make him less of a running QB, it just mean he was capabale of running and passing.

Tarkenton: 10 percent

Likewise if you consider Fran a running QB then you open the doors for players like Mcnabb and Elway (ten percent) to be considered.

Also I feel it isnt a accurate barometer to judge wether a QB is sucessfull by wether they have a SB ring, wether there passing or running.

Now I will say there is another level of running QB's (Vick, Young, Stewart). Who run significantly more then there counterparts (20 percent). And if your speaking towards those players then I agree caution is in order before drafting them.

However even in those cases you shouldnt simply disrgard them because of there style. Context and research is in order for each player.

[KJDaniel31]

Where did you get those stats, so I can do some research?

[rscott94]

1st- AJ Green

2nd or 3rd- Marvin Austin

4th- TE, CB, DT/DE,

5th-...

6th-...

Free Agency

Veteran QB

Good DT

posibley a CB

if they could i would trade down maybe two spots then pick up AJ Green and maybe get a 2nd round

EDIT: i know this is probally imposible but this is what i would try to do

[koolkatluke]

I really want fairly he would make our pass rush so good.

[Cavscout]

A Dallas Cowboys scout mentioned to Moose Johnston that Patrick Peterson's return skills alone graded better than Dez Bryants from a year ago. He reiterated this fact during the broadcast of the Cotton Bowl. This, plus the fact that he is a shutdown corner is why I would take him at #1 over anyone else at this point

[top dawg]

I don't want a "running QB", but I wouldn't mind a QB who can run. And, just because a QB can run doesn't mean he's destined for failure at the Pro level.

To say that Newton can't play at the pro level because he has the ability to run is absurd. You have to look at the total package. That being said, I don't believe we have the luxury of taking a chance on any QB in this draft in our situation, unless one of them blows all the experts away at the NFL combine.

[KJDaniel31]

A Dallas Cowboys scout mentioned to Moose Johnston that Patrick Peterson's return skills alone graded better than Dez Bryants from a year ago. He reiterated this fact during the broadcast of the Cotton Bowl. This, plus the fact that he is a shutdown corner is why I would take him at #1 over anyone else at this point

I agree, however, consider Jerry Jones' track record with first round picks who have added value due to the return game.

1990: Alexander Wright - Bust

2002: Roy Williams - Never returned kicks in the NFL

2003: Terrence Newman - Led the team in PRs exactly ONCE

2008: Felix Jones - Led the team exactly once in KRs, no longer returns kicks

I think if you look around the league, you will see this is the rule, not the exception. Most teams who pick guys in the first round who return kicks either dont let them return kicks for more than a year or 2, or it stunts their development at their main position.

I say in the first round you dont even consider return ability, because literally no one brings that value to the table. Given that, I still LOVE Peterson's ability, and it will be fun for a year or 2, but we should just focus on his DB play (is he a S or CB is a big question). Teams just seem to prefer to use less expensive players to return kicks.

[MaineManPanther]

Where did you get those stats, so I can do some research?

Nfl.com. They don't have the percentage out right. I had to add the Qb's career passing attempts and rushing attempts to get an aproximate number of times they had the ball . Then I just found what percentage of those were running.

I wouldn't call it perfect, but it's pretty decent and the most accurate way I can think of.

Reading back at our debate, I think the biggest thing we disagree on is what is a running QB. There are "running QB's" ( Mcniar, S. Young, etc) who do run frequenlty but still perfer throwing considerably more often.

Then there are "run first QB's" (Young, Vick) who run nearly a 1/4 of thier plays and typically suffer from the drawbacks (reading defences, finding WR's) you mentioned.

[KJDaniel31]

Nfl.com. They don't have the percentage out right. I had to add the Qb's career passing attempts and rushing attempts to get an aproximate number of times they had the ball . Then I just found what percentage of those were running.

I wouldn't call it perfect, but it's pretty decent and the most accurate way I can think of.

Reading back at our debate, I think the biggest thing we disagree on is what is a running QB. There are "running QB's" ( Mcniar, S. Young, etc) who do run frequenlty but still perfer throwing considerably more often.

Then there are "run first QB's" (Young, Vick) who run nearly a 1/4 of thier plays and typically suffer from the drawbacks (reading defences, finding WR's) you mentioned.

I'll look at those stats tomorrow....very interesting stuff.

If we define them the way you just did (which I dont mind), then I would say that a running QB is fine so long as he shows the ability to read defenses/etc. Run first QBs are good for nothing more than backups IMO, and most of the blame is on the way they are coached as a kid. I was a QB and I naturally ran first, first school I attended they encouraged running at the first sign of trouble. I transfered freshman year and my high school coaches drilled it into me to not take the easy way out, let my WRs work and find the open guy. I became a much better passer due to that teaching.

Then, they moved me to WR as a SR. HAHA

[jarhead]

I think there is no doubt Riveria has been given his priority to improve our offense and that fairs well with for drafting Green,The caviout is who can get the ball to him and how will the panthers improve that.

[Murph]

Thought I would bump this and let any newbies get a chance to vote. AJ seems to be forgotten somewhat in the past few weeks.