Justify why Cam Newton isn't worth #1 overall?

[MWCarolina]

Getting back to the discussion on Cam, for me the comparisons are clearly more Ben Roth than anyone else. Another reason that I am hesitant to place a colossal price tag on a higher risk asset is durability. I think running QBs like Vick and The Golden Calf of Bristol are going to be more susceptible to injury given their playing style. I think Cam would be less susceptible to injury due to his LB frame, but he would still be rolling the dice, nonetheless. Of course it is possible to be injured in the pocket, but the fact remains that your protection clause to be enforced by the ref runs out when you leave it. the pros on the D-side of the line are faster and meaner than even the almighty SEC. I would rather trade down to a desperate team and pick up another 1st round pick and wait out this year before taking any of the QBs available this year at #1.

Cam Newton's got the arm of Big Ben, but the worry is does he have the reads that Ben could make or does he see two guys covered and run?? As for the running QBs being susceptible to injury, that's true and i think Newton's LB frame still would be hurt if he ran too much. The Golden Calf of Bristol isnt a small guy, but he got hurt and you are right, the defensive side in the pros is faster than the SEC, they are tougher and Vick found out the hard way that when you leave the pocket and run, the protection to the quarterback (in the ref's mind) changes.

As for the trading of the pick, EVEN when we could've picked Luck it is easier said than done, now without Luck this is easier said than done.

[twylyght]

Cam Newton's got the arm of Big Ben, but the worry is does he have the reads that Ben could make or does he see two guys covered and run?? As for the running QBs being susceptible to injury, that's true and i think Newton's LB frame still would be hurt if he ran too much. The Golden Calf of Bristol isnt a small guy, but he got hurt and you are right, the defensive side in the pros is faster than the SEC, they are tougher and Vick found out the hard way that when you leave the pocket and run, the protection to the quarterback (in the ref's mind) changes.

As for the trading of the pick, EVEN when we could've picked Luck it is easier said than done, now without Luck this is easier said than done.

From what I've seen of Cam, I wouldn't mind taking a LATER flyer on him if we can trade out. He has the tools, and I think he likely has the ability to learn a pro-style offense to at least a decent degree. I don't recall who mentioned it earlier in the thread, but his character issues can only be addressed in ONE way. If he slips the tiniest bit, then you can't take that chance on him. If his moral fiber won't stand up to a 5 hour interview, then it won't stand up in life.

As for trading down, I agree that it is easier said than done. However, I have all the faith in the world that someone like the Raiders/Bengals/etc or some other defunct organization will make a stupid play for the top spot.

[TheRealDeal]

what's the matter with the defenses he's faced? they are SEC defenses. are there better ones? the dude absolutely raped alabama's defense. what more do you want?

SEC defenses weren't "SEC defenses" this year and everyone knows it.

[rayzor]

SEC defenses weren't "SEC defenses" this year and everyone knows it.

that was more an appeal to those guys who say players from the SEC are more ready for the NFL because they have already been playing NFL talent.

[beastson]

Does it really matter anymore?

No it doesnt

This the NFL anyway, he will be getting a whole lot of money. That is so in the past

[TANTRIC-NINJA]

lol all the rare tools he has and the best people come up with is ...hes a theif.

Jimmy Claussen is a thief...he has stolen a whole season away from the Panther fan base...and may do it again.

Concerns are the lack of many succesfull Qbs from a spread offense: David Carr, Alex Smith, Vince Young(uneven), Vick( 9 years and this is his put it together season).

With that said Ive watched Newton a lot this season and he has ideal size and is more polished than Vick, Young, The Golden Calf of Bristol as a passer. He is going against the most NFL prospect playing in the SEC and had dominated.

Trade Down if you can and i will be fine with him at QB..but I would love to see a play for luck next season..through trading of this pick. get a first for next year and gain a second and third? drafting a QB this season would probably hinder that.

[MWCarolina]

As for trading down, I agree that it is easier said than done. However, I have all the faith in the world that someone like the Raiders/Bengals/etc or some other defunct organization will make a stupid play for the top spot.

i dont see the Bengals doing it because i see them keeping Palmer, the Raiders dont have a first round pick so if they trade up, the only thing they can give us is a player, a 2010 2nd round pick and a 2011 first round pick.

[HeatCheck]

i dont see the Bengals doing it because i see them keeping Palmer, the Raiders dont have a first round pick so if they trade up, the only thing they can give us is a player, a 2010 2nd round pick and a 2011 first round pick.

You would think the Bengals are looking for a new QB with the way Palmer played last year. He's got talent, but he just hasn't been able to put it together.

[MWCarolina]

lol all the rare tools he has and the best people come up with is ...hes a theif. Concerns are the lack of many succesfull Qbs from a spread offense: David Carr, Alex Smith, Vince Young(uneven), Vick( 9 years and this is his put it together season).

With that said Ive watched Newton a lot this season and he has ideal size and is more polished than Vick, Young, The Golden Calf of Bristol as a passer.

Trade Down if you can and i will be fine with him at QB..but I would love to see a play for luck next season..through trading of this pick. get a first for next year and gain a second and third?

Ok, the people arent saying he's a thief, they are saying that he has character issues from the stolen laptop, to the cheating, to the pay for play thing, BUT the issues for some of us (me mainly) IS that spread offense. Alex Smith was a VERY smart quarterback, yet he busted in the NFL. Vick took Nine years to put it together. people can say he's polished, but until he plays an NFL defense, people like me will be worried about him as the number one overall pick. As for trading down, it's going to be hard, i dont think many people will want to get up to take a Fairley, Bowers, Green (who i like) or Newton.

[MWCarolina]

You would think the Bengals are looking for a new QB with the way Palmer played last year. He's got talent, but he just hasn't been able to put it together.

i think the last two games though may have saved Palmer (for next year). Palmer without Terrell Owens and Chad OchoCinco actually looked better and IF Carolina passes on AJ Green, then i see the Bengals picking him and having a recieving corps of AJ Green, Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley (Carolina made a mistake passing on him in my book) and the Bengals will see if Palmer can win with recievers who arent in it for the show or the money.

[Sam Mills Fan]

I am absolutely done responding to anyone that has stated Newton stole a laptop. At least some of the other allegations have some meat to them. But NOBODY said Newton stole a laptop. Yet people keep posting that over and over. Why? Probably because stealing a laptop is much worse than any other supposed "character issue" Newton has, so their entire argument falls apart without this myth that keeps getting repeated over and over.

[TheRealDeal]

I'll give you reasons (which you may or may not agree with) as to why some people won't want to draft him #1 and I won't use that NO analyst in America has him at #1.

1. He is in a one read pass offense, if it's not there, he's told to take off. In the NFL that doesn't work. Vick is so successful this year because running is his last option. Big Ben is successful because he moves around in the pocket and keeps plays alive but doesn't run. That will be a HUGE adjustment for Cam.

2. Accuracy is an issue. I know he has the high completion percentage but stats don't tell the whole story. He completes passes but they aren't all accurate throws, his receivers make a lot of plays for him. Jimmy Clausen had a 68% completion percentage in college and 50% in the NFL because his accuracy isn't very good at all. In college his receivers were better athletes than the defenses and made those 50/50 plays for him.

3. He gets a lot of 1 on 1 coverage due to his running abilities which he won't get in the NFL. Colleges don't have the athletes that NFL teams have. Hashes are wider so one side of the field is bigger than the other and has more room to cover (aka the wide side) making speed an even bigger factor. In the NFL, those hashes are closer making the field pretty balanced. To make up for his athleticism in college, defenses put 8-9 guys in the box and leave corners manned up on the outside. His receivers win those battles. In the NFL, they don't need to stack the box to stop it when linebackers are nearly as fast as him and D ends can contain him and so forth. You can play zone behind that and make him read an actual defense instead of just man coverage most of the time.

4. Running QBs don't have a great history in the NFL. The only one to be successful is Vick and it's ONLY because he's become a better passer after he got humbled by jail. No one else has successfully made that transition and been dominant so it's hard for an owner to make that pick when history suggests that going with a pocket passer is safer.

5. He's only played 1 season of Div1 football. I think that's a major reason why Luck went back to school is because he knows the correlation between starts in college and success in the NFL. Taking a chance on someone who has played 14 games in major college football is something an owner would be scared of, especially at the price it will be.

6. Whether you, I, or whoever thinks they are major or minor, there have been some question marks in this kids past. Stolen laptop, whether he bought or stole it, raises some concerns but less if he just bought it. Cheating on the test shows more to me about his work ethic than anything. They give you countless opportunities in school to succeed with personal tutors, study hall, etc and it shows that he obviously didn't take advantage of it and took the easy way out. Does an owner know that he won't take the easy way out once he cashes a $30-$50mil paycheck? The thing with his dad is whatever. Children have strong ties to their parents and he might not have known, he might have known and not been able to stand up to his dad, or he might have known and wanted cash. It happens more than we know but it's still a concern and something that should be talked about with him once he no longer has to worry about NCAA sanctions.

He's got a lot of physical tools, he's big, strong, fast, athletic but so do a lot of other QBs. What makes them successful is the stuff between their ears, their work ethic, their determination. Those aren't my reasons of not drafting him, those are just some concerns that are legit and should be considered when talking about taking Cam Newton #1 overall.

[blackcatgrowl]

I'll give you reasons (which you may or may not agree with) as to why some people won't want to draft him #1 and I won't use that NO analyst in America has him at #1.

I welcome a reasonable discussion on this subject. Please don't take my responses personally.

The reason why Cam isn't #1 on anyone's draft list is because sports writers often wrapped up in memes of the moment and if it isn't the "trend" to be hot on a player, they aren't, even if they are wrong.

Wasn't Jimmy Clausen projected to go in the 1st round? Didn't he drop to the 2nd? And has he played like he was worthy of going in the 1st round?

What analysts say is hit and miss. You can't simply argue that "the analysts say it, so it must be so", because they are often wrong.

That being said, lets take a look at your comments and evidence against it.

1. He is in a one read pass offense, if it's not there, he's told to take off. In the NFL that doesn't work. Vick is so successful this year because running is his last option. Big Ben is successful because he moves around in the pocket and keeps plays alive but doesn't run. That will be a HUGE adjustment for Cam.

You've not watched Auburn play this year, because this is false. He is a dual threat QB.

The stats show it. The highlights show it. Here's one on a TD play.

(FF to 3:14)

He's under pressure, and the pocket is collapsing. Watch the read. He looks to his right. scans the center of the field, checks down to the left for the TD.

And he's done this all year.

2. Accuracy is an issue. I know he has the high completion percentage but stats don't tell the whole story. He completes passes but they aren't all accurate throws, his receivers make a lot of plays for him. Jimmy Clausen had a 68% completion percentage in college and 50% in the NFL because his accuracy isn't very good at all. In college his receivers were better athletes than the defenses and made those 50/50 plays for him.

Again, you aren't watching him play making these comments.

FF to 2:16. A receiver broke coverage towards the sideline, to catch a ball thrown to the outside of the sideline marker. Cam throws a needle to the receiver on the sidelines. He put the ball only where his man could catch it.

3. He gets a lot of 1 on 1 coverage due to his running abilities which he won't get in the NFL. Colleges don't have the athletes that NFL teams have. Hashes are wider so one side of the field is bigger than the other and has more room to cover (aka the wide side) making speed an even bigger factor. In the NFL, those hashes are closer making the field pretty balanced. To make up for his athleticism in college, defenses put 8-9 guys in the box and leave corners manned up on the outside. His receivers win those battles. In the NFL, they don't need to stack the box to stop it when linebackers are nearly as fast as him and D ends can contain him and so forth. You can play zone behind that and make him read an actual defense instead of just man coverage most of the time.

Auburn's receivers are maybe above average. And apart from one Hail Mary pass that was a fluke, I challenge you to find multiple videos where he isn't hitting them in the numbers, and making them stretch for receptions or put themselves in a position to take a shot from a defender.

I can't find them.

And all the other talk about NFL Defenses and the hash marks... dude... this applies to EVERY QB DRAFT PROSPECT. This isn't something that only applies to Cam Newton.

4. Running QBs don't have a great history in the NFL. The only one to be successful is Vick and it's ONLY because he's become a better passer after he got humbled by jail. No one else has successfully made that transition and been dominant so it's hard for an owner to make that pick when history suggests that going with a pocket passer is safer.

Cam is not a "running QB". He's a dual threat. As covered above. His mechanics are solid for the pass. He's 6'6", 250 pounds, and is FAST for his size.

He's like a Ben Roethlisberger, but faster on his feet.

5. He's only played 1 season of Div1 football. I think that's a major reason why Luck went back to school is because he knows the correlation between starts in college and success in the NFL. Taking a chance on someone who has played 14 games in major college football is something an owner would be scared of, especially at the price it will be.

I see this as a complete reverse. The fact that he has come out and done what he has with only one year of division 1 football experience says more of his ability and mental toughness than anything.

Sorry, not buying that.

6. Whether you, I, or whoever thinks they are major or minor, there have been some question marks in this kids past. Stolen laptop, whether he bought or stole it, raises some concerns but less if he just bought it. Cheating on the test shows more to me about his work ethic than anything. They give you countless opportunities in school to succeed with personal tutors, study hall, etc and it shows that he obviously didn't take advantage of it and took the easy way out. Does an owner know that he won't take the easy way out once he cashes a $30-$50mil paycheck? The thing with his dad is whatever. Children have strong ties to their parents and he might not have known, he might have known and not been able to stand up to his dad, or he might have known and wanted cash. It happens more than we know but it's still a concern and something that should be talked about with him once he no longer has to worry about NCAA sanctions.

Every single thing you've mentioned here, is either here-say that the University of Florida or the NCAA has said wasn't an issue or has dismissed as not his fault. The stolen laptop he bought without the knowledge it was stolen. If all these things were problems, he wouldn't have been eligible to play.

All this tells me is someone has an axe to grind against him.

He's got a lot of physical tools, he's big, strong, fast, athletic but so do a lot of other QBs.

Like who? Who in the draft or in FA is built like him and has the arm he does?

What makes them successful is the stuff between their ears, their work ethic, their determination. Those aren't my reasons of not drafting him, those are just some concerns that are legit and should be considered when talking about taking Cam Newton #1 overall.

So you know him personally and can attest to his lack of work ethic and determination?

Or is this something you read by a sports reporter who is reporting what someone else said? Or maybe you read this from an LSU or Ole Miss fan that hates the fact Auburn has been dominant this year?

Pretty much everything you've said is either inaccurate, or is simply looks like a rehash of here-say of people who want to see this kid fail.

To wrap up any further claims that he's not a dual-threat QB, or isn't elite physical talent, I'll leave it to John Brenkus of ESPN's Sport Science:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5998288

http://www.harpercollins.com/authors/35956/John_Brenkus/index.aspx

John Brenkus has spent the last decade studying and popularizing the unique characteristics of the world's greatest athletes. A co-founder of BASE Productions, he co-created the groundbreaking series Fight Science for the National Geographic Channel and serves as the on-air host, co-creator, and executive producer of ESPN's Emmy Award–winning show Sport Science

Fact is, franchises that win Championships are built around exceptional QB play. We need that first and foremost. I think Cam gives us that out of any current QBs available to us. If we don't take him #1 overall, we gamble on someone else doing so (Tennessee is interested in him at #8 overall).

[RealisticFan]

6. Cheating on the test shows more to me about his work ethic than anything. They give you countless opportunities in school to succeed with personal tutors, study hall, etc and it shows that he obviously didn't take advantage of it and took the easy way out. Does an owner know that he won't take the easy way out once he cashes a $30-$50mil paycheck?

This is my question too. I just get this feeling that he may be the type to start getting paychecks and not put as much effort in maintaining or improving himself as he did in trying to get there. It makes me want to see one more year of College at Auburn to be sold on him. Maybe the Panthers would be in a position to do this next year and then they can gauge Luck and Newton.

IMO