LCF system analysis of Clausen

[CatMan72]

Found this through my ESPN insiders account, there is this Lewin Career Forecasting system developed by the guys at FootballOutsiders.com that has apparently been wildly successful predicting how college QB's will do based on a formula involving their # of career starts and completion percentage.

Here's what the LCF had to say about Clausen:

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

(62.2 completion percentage, 34 games started)

Clausen is perhaps the most controversial prospect in the draft, and his pro viability has yielded strong opinions from both Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.

Both Kiper and McShay know more about the draft and college players than we do, but our system suggests that the young upstart has got this one down over the legend. Clausen's list of comparable quarterbacks is uninspiring -- notably Rex Grossman (61.0 completion percentage, 31 games started) and Vince Young (61.8 completion percentage, 32 games started). The Young comp seems more promising now than a year ago, but remember that a huge part of Young's success is his ability to run with the football; Clausen isn't bringing that with him to the pro level.

...and here's what it had to say about Tony Pike:

Tony Pike, Cincinnati Bearcats

(61.7 completion percentage, 19 games started)

A borderline second-rounder, Pike just doesn't have the pedigree of a successful NFL quarterback. Bearcats fans can point to the stats of Aaron Rodgers (63.8 completion percentage, 22 games started) as a relatively close comparison, but there's a fair amount of players with ugly pro careers in that same space -- consider that Tommy Maddox (58.3 completion percentage, 23 games started), Heath Shuler (61.6 completion percentage, 24 games started) and even Akili Smith (56.6 completion percentage, 19 games started) have pretty comparable numbers. That's a scene NFL teams don't want to be a part of; teams at the end of the second round are better off letting Pike drop for someone else to grab.

[chef17]

Nice read

[Ricky Spanish]

hurney done fuged up obviously

[SorthNarolina]

I really like that statistical analysis stuff but at the same time getting order out of something chaotic as football seems like an impossible task.

[communist]

oh no, not that stats again...spurious correlation all over the place...i hate journalists.

[Snake]

Tom Brady 25 starts for 62.3 %

Just saying....

[Stumpy]

FWIW, I checked the stats on all top two round QBs since 06 ( as far back as ESPNs college stats go) Listed the closest matches for both Pickles and Luck Almighty.

As far as Pickles 62.2% (3 Seasons)

Jamacrus Russell 61.9

Brady Quinn 60.8

Kevin Kolb 61.7

John Beck 63.7

Vince Young 62.6

And for Luck 63.9% (2 seasons or less)

Mark Sanchez 64.3

Joe Flacco 63.3

Drew Stanton 64.2

Kellen Clemens 61.3

Take away Kolb, and the list seems pretty damning for Jimmy. Although Luck's list seems pretty inconclusive.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

QB is the most difficult position to scout, there's so many factors you have to weigh and intangibles are huge. Judging prospects based solely on statistics seems completely asinine but hey JMO.