Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

If the oddsmakers are correct, Denver will likely pick #1

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

Recommended Posts

MWCarolina Newbie

MWCarolina

Posted
Posted

We're fine at WR. Using our first pick on a WR would be the dumbest thing we could do.

disagree here

Yep, we have a third round pick, a sixth round pick, a disgruntled vet, and no depth to speak of. How foolish of me.

yep, agreed, we have a 3rd round pick who is inconsistant and drops some passes. a 6th round pick who has potential, but also is inconsistant and i think is best as a 3rd reciever and Steve Smith who is usually taken out of the play, yep, seems fine to me. I guess if Luck or Newton (whoever the panthers take at QB) struggle as rookies and win 3 games, we will hear names like Matt Barkley or Terrelle Pyror next year. sorry, but reciever is a major issue with the panthers, but Luck has franchise quarterback potential which is why he is and should be talked about.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MWCarolina Newbie

MWCarolina

Posted
Posted

Panthers cannot beat the Falcons. Panthers cannot beat the Falcons backups. Atlanta could take their practice squad guys, make them all starters with the backups, and they would still beat the Panthers.

The number 1 pick is ours. You guys aren't real fans if you think otherwise!

you've got to be kidding me! real fans know that their team can beat the backups for a team, the panthers are 2 and 12 and bad yes, but we arent so bad that John Parker Wilson can drive on us and score 20 or more points. if they lose to the falcons, it will be either, A) because the Falcons have the starters in the whole game or B) the starters are in for half the game and they put up 21 points and Carolina has 0 and have to come back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CBDellinger Experienced

CBDellinger

Posted
Posted

This is really not true. Oddsmakers set unbiased odds which the casinos then use. The odds set by the oddsmakers are considered the best odds to get equal money on both sides of the bet.

Occasionally in huge matches (superbowl, USA vs England soccer) the line may be fudged because there is the assumption that huge amounts of people will be making illogical bets...i.e. betting on the home country. But for your run of the mill week 16 NFL game the lines are based on data.

The odds you see in vegas would be the best statistic to use by far in determining a team's odds to win.

I disagree. Because the lines move as bets are placed to entice folks to bet on way or another depending on how heavily one side of a given line has been bet. If it were the odds of one team winning vs another the line would never move. They are not interested in predicting the outcome per say... they are interested in getting folks to bet in a situation where they have the best chance of losing that bet. You can pick the correct team to win or lose and still lose the bet. Thats why they have a line in the fist place. If it were just straight pickem vegas wouldnt make money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
  • Author
Posted

This is a great example of a whole bunch of words supporting a completely false thesis

I am amazed that you recognized "a whole bunch of words." You, I noticed, did not provide a thesis. If the Falcons start their second teams and rest the starters--like New Orleans did last year--Oddsmakers would have to adjust and would give the advantage to the Panthers. If there are no upsets, Denver would get the pick. Do you understand the hypothetical aspect of this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

I disagree. Because the lines move as bets are placed to entice folks to bet on way or another depending on how heavily one side of a given line has been bet. If it were the odds of one team winning vs another the line would never move. They are not interested in predicting the outcome per say... they are interested in getting folks to bet in a situation where they have the best chance of losing that bet. You can pick the correct team to win or lose and still lose the bet. Thats why they have a line in the fist place. If it were just straight pickem vegas wouldnt make money.

You are wrong. Trying one more time.

Lines are set by oddsmakers who use huge amounts of data, not public perception, to set the lines. Casinos then buy and use those lines and, as you state, may move them to get equal money bet. They also may not move them at all and simply lay off the excess.

However, lines really don't move that much and often not at all. Because usually the oddsmakers are pretty damn good. Occasionally on big games or large lines (like the game tomorrow actually) the line will bounce around a little. Or when huge news comes out during the week. And even then its a point or two usually less. Not enough to affect the "odds" significantly.

Vegas odds are generally the best information you will have to determine the "odds" of a certain team winning (you can just use the moneyline and adjust for the house take for a good estimate of a certain team winning )

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I don't see the oddsmakers picking us to win in Atlanta even if they are resting their starters. That doesn't mean we couldn't win, but I don't see them picking it. If thats the case, then they wouldn't be correct would they?

I think it may not open the way I speculate, but if people suspect that ATL is going to rest their big dogs, I can see the odds swinging rather dramatically in the Panthers favor as bets start coming in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Happy Panther Grand Master

Happy Panther

Posted
Posted

I am amazed that you recognized "a whole bunch of words." You, I noticed, did not provide a thesis. If the Falcons start their second teams and rest the starters--like New Orleans did last year--Oddsmakers would have to adjust and would give the advantage to the Panthers. If there are no upsets, Denver would get the pick. Do you understand the hypothetical aspect of this?

Here is your thesis:

If the oddsmakers are correct, Denver will likely pick #1

Its wrong, at least the last 5 words.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...