If the oddsmakers are correct, Denver will likely pick #1

[woody]

Well we can't play people like Pike. If we somehow get the 2nd pick I think we get either Mallet or Newton. Why would we get AJ Green? So Jimmy could not throw him the ball....I would rather have Julio Jones than AJ Green if we pick a reciever.

[CRA]

Orton and The Golden Calf of Bristol were both McDaniel moves. No new HC is gonna come in try to work with McDaniel's vision at QB. If Luck is there they take him.....there are probably plenty of NFL coaches that wouldn't want to be bothered w/ The Golden Calf of Bristol(and the type offense he would need).

[Hugor Hill]

Maybe we should play our 'scrubs'...what a sight that would be.

the problem is, we do this every week.

[Happy Panther]

Cincinnati's best chance for a win comes this weekend vs. SD. They will play in the elements vs. a warm-weather team. However, I don't see any more wins in them. At the moment, the Panthers have a slight edge in the Strength of Schedule tie breaker.

Denver wins the tie breaker.

First, we have to win one game. It probably will not be Pittsburgh. What would happen to help us beat Atlanta? Atlanta beats New Orleans Monday night. If that happens, and the Broncos lose to Houston, I would think that Denver is the new favorite to get the first pick.

Lets say that New Orleans loses to Atlanta and Denver beats Houston. Parade time? Not yet. Cincinnati loses to San Diego and we enter the final week vs. Atlanta's scrubs and Cincinnati travels to Baltimore. Since Baltimore split with Pittsburgh and both teams are 10-4, it is unlikely that Baltimore rests. Meanwhile, Atlanta would have home field advantage throughout the playoffs wrapped up. They will play scrubs vs. the Panthers.

According to the oddsmakers, Atlanta should beat New Orleans and Carolina, Denver and Cincinnati should lose this weekend. The odds would then favor Denver, who play San Diego in the final week of the season. San Diego may be eliminated from wild card contention by then; it looks like the wildcard teams are going to be Pittsburgh/Baltimore and NY Jets. However, that gives them no reason to rest the starters. I would think that Carolina would be favored vs. Atlanta if they bench Ryan and Turner on offense, and a few players on D. Furthermore, Atlanta would rest for the playoffs and keep Luck out of the NFC South. Win Win.

In other words, we need either NO to beat Atlanta or Denver to beat Houston this weekend (assuming we lose to Pittsburgh). Even if Cincy loses out and we beat Atlanta, we still have a chance to win a tie breaker. Denver is the biggest threat right now, and barring upsets, they will pick first.

If I am Richardson, I tell Fox to play people like Armanti Edwards, reserve linemen, Pike, Norwood, Pugh, etc. to see what they can do. I tell him to treat it like a preseason game.

If we still end up with the second pick, Denver will have a great trade set up. We would have to give Denver next year's first rounder and maybe our third rounder to move up 1 spot. Would you do it? I would. Now that shows me how important it is that we lose.

This is a great example of a whole bunch of words supporting a completely false thesis

[The Saltman]

tl;dr

[MWCarolina]

Denver wont get the pick and if they did, i think they do get Luck and we get either a defensive player or reciever. Mallett and Newton (in my book) shouldnt be drafted until later, i rather take Jake Locker.

[CBDellinger]

The problem with this theory is that the odds makers are not predicting the outcome of the games... they are setting lines to entice betting so they can make money. Vegas doesnt care who wins... they set lines not pickems.

[PantherBrew]

The Saltman says,

[The Saltman]

[RockyTopVol]

I'm starting to think Luck won't even come out this year. If that happens, I don't even really care about picking first. I'd rather try whatever we can to trade down.

[Brooklyn Bully]

Hello AJ Green.

We're fine at WR. Using our first pick on a WR would be the dumbest thing we could do.

[Dpantherman]

Can we wait and see if ATL wins Monday night before going through this again?? at the moment this doesn't even matter

[Happy Panther]

The problem with this theory is that the odds makers are not predicting the outcome of the games... they are setting lines to entice betting so they can make money. Vegas doesnt care who wins... they set lines not pickems.

This is really not true. Oddsmakers set unbiased odds which the casinos then use. The odds set by the oddsmakers are considered the best odds to get equal money on both sides of the bet.

Occasionally in huge matches (superbowl, USA vs England soccer) the line may be fudged because there is the assumption that huge amounts of people will be making illogical bets...i.e. betting on the home country. But for your run of the mill week 16 NFL game the lines are based on data.

The odds you see in vegas would be the best statistic to use by far in determining a team's odds to win.

[Liminy]

Whats the odds on the oddsmakers odds?