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Strength of Schedule Breakdown

Mr. Scot

By Mr. Scot,
in Carolina Panthers

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

Posted
Posted

So for my own information (and because I'm a nerdy insomniac) I decided to do my own workup on the strength of schedule numbers.

I now have a headache :(

Mind you, these numbers are irrelevant right now because the Bengals have one more win than us, but they become very relevant if our records match. That's why it's worth taking a look at the ramifications of the games to come.

Honestly, I still feel I need clarification on one thing, that being whether divisional rivals actually count twice. In the numbers from both Gantt and the Great Blue North Report draft site, they do. However, the NFL's official tie-breaking procedures as listed online don't actually say. So the question becomes this: Do they only count a division team once - since in reality they are only one opponent - or twice because we play them twice? My guess would be the latter, but if it's listed officially anywhere, I haven't seen it.

Running with that assumption for now, here are the things you need to know if you want the Panthers to have the #1 pick:

Let's start with the current numbers.

- Panthers: .591

- Bengals: .587

(Side Note: take the divisional factor out and we get a decent edge on the Bengals - .556 to .580 - but I'm not counting it that way for the moment; if I learn otherwise, I'll revise this)

Thanks to the NFL's decision to schedule lots of division games late in the season, there are a fair number of games remaining for which the result is a wash for us. For example, the Bills entire remaining schedule consists of divisional games, and all against other teams that have also played the Bengals since the AFC North and AFC east matched up against each other this season. Thus, one wins, one loses, the math balances out and the result changes nothing. Ditto the Seahawks for us. Well, almost. Everybody they play has also played us so it's mostly a wash, except the divisional factor makes it to our advantage for them to beat the Bucs in week sixteen. On the other side, same deal for Pittsburgh and also Cleveland (outside of the Bengals game, of course; more about that later).

Throw in the fact that our respective divisions - AFC North and NFC South - also played each other this year. Therefore, the Bengals played all of our divisional rivals (and us) and by season's end we will have played all of theirs (and them). That means that while a win by one of our divisional foes hurts us, it also hurts them, just not quite as much since it counts double for us, and vice versa.

(got all that?) :sosp:

Overall, it's better for our divisional opponents to lose - except when Atlanta plays us - and for theirs to win (except Cleveland against them, but again more on that later). Take next week's Jets-Steelers contest, let's say. It would be a wash for Cincinnati since both teams have played the Bengals. However, since the Steelers are a divisional opponent, their winning hurts the Bengals worse. For us, there's the Atlanta-Seattle matchup. The overall result would be a wash but for the divisional factor. However, on a more practical level, it's best for us if the Seahawks win because it makes the division race closer and lessens the likelihood of Atlanta sitting starters in week seventeen (wouldn't put money on that one though).

Think it's complicated so far?

Trust me, you ain't seen nothin' yet :eek:

They say English is one of the most difficult languages to learn because there are loads of exceptions to the rules. Likewise, there are a few oddities in the late season math. One is next week's Ravens-Saints game. A Ravens win gives the Bengals a double increase and us a double decrease. Unfortunately, it also gives Atlanta breathing room, provided they don't fall to the Seahawks. Thus, the Ravens winning is really only beneficial if either the Seahawks also beat the Falcons (unlikely) or we lose to Arizona, or (obviously) both. The week sixteen divisional matchup against the Saints is the better chance for Atlanta to lose, and beneficial to us, even if you have to hold your nose to cheer for either team.

But here's where it gets really weird :skep:

Let's say we beat Arizona and the Bengals lose to the Browns. We're screwed right?

Well, not entirely, because we played the Bengals.

The Bengals losing to the Browns increases their strength of schedule twofold because of the divisional factor (which also makes that game a wash for us). Likewise, our winning increases their number because they played us, and it weakens ours by putting a loss in Arizona's column. Thus, independent of other results, here's what happens to the current numbers should we beat Arizona and the Bengals lose to the Browns.

- Panthers: SoS goes down three hundredths from .591 to .588

- Bengals: SoS goes up five hundredths from .587 to .592

In this scenario, while our records would match, we'd win the tiebreaker. Now, naturally it's better for it not to come to that because of the possibility of the Falcons resting their starters against us in week seventeen. Regardless, it's probably enough to make your head spin already :willy_nilly:

So to make it simple, here's a list of rooting interests (outside the obvious) for the last three weeks of the season.

WEEK 15:

Chargers over 49ers

Colts over Jaguars

Eagles over Giants

Lions over Bucs

Patriots over Packers

Chiefs over Rams

Ravens over Saints (conditionally, see above)

Seahawks over Falcons

Vikings over Bears

WEEK 16:

Colts over Raiders

Cowboys over Cardinals

Dolphins over Lions

Jets over Bears

Packers over Giants

Saints over Falcons

Seahawks over Bucs

WEEK 17:

Chargers over Broncos

Colts over Titans

Packers over Bears

Redskins over Giants

Looking down the list, our best friends are the Colts. Our worst enemies? The Bears and Giants.

Weird quirk: Jets-Steelers in week 15 narrows the gap no matter what the result. The best case scenario is the Jets winning as it narrows the schedule only by a single hundredth.

So there's the basics. Again, it's still overall better to not have to worry about the math, but if it becomes a factor this should help you know where we stand.

Oh, one last thing...

Did I mention that if we should somehow happen to win two of our remaining games and the Bills, Lions or Broncos lose out, we'd also be in a position of having to match strength of schedule with them for a shot at the number two spot? Depending on those results, we could actually fall as far down the list as pick number five :banghead:

Yeah...I'm going to bed :svengo:

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Stroupe-a-loop Newbie

Stroupe-a-loop

Posted
Posted

"That day Mr. Scot did math and compared schedules like a warrior poet."

I still think it's rubbish that the heads up game doesn't count for much, besides the slight S.O.S. increase, in the draft. It's the first tie breaker in determining the playoff standings. Why is it kicked to the curb for the draft. Mr. Scot could have gotten five more hours of sleep for God's sake. I want answers.

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theyhateme45 Newbie

theyhateme45

Posted
Posted

-----

They say English is one of the most difficult languages to learn because there are loads of exceptions to the rules. Likewise, there are a few oddities in the late season math. One is next week's Ravens-Saints game. A Ravens win gives the Bengals a double increase and us a double decrease. Unfortunately, it also gives Atlanta breathing room, provided they don't fall to the Seahawks. Thus, the Ravens winning is really only beneficial if either the Seahawks also beat the Falcons (unlikely) or we lose to Arizona, or (obviously) both. The week sixteen divisional matchup against the Saints is the better chance for Atlanta to lose, and beneficial to us, even if you have to hold your nose to cheer for either team.------

I'm a huge nerd also and this is the only thing I noticed that was incorrect or misleading. The Ravens saints game has no effect in giving the Falcons breathing room in terms of resting starters week 17... the only game that matters is the falcons saints game...

Currently the saints have 1 loss in the division (to the falcons) and are 10-3, The falcons have no loss in the division and it (11-2). Even if the the saints lose next week it will come down to their week 16 matchup.

If the saints lose to the ravens but beats the falcons and the falcons also beats the seahawks the saints will be 11-4 going into the last week and the falcons would be 12-3. They would both have 1 loss in the division and be playing a division opponent. Which means the falcons will have a lot to play for week 17!!! Because if they lose to us, and the saints beat the falcons the saints will then own the divisional tie breaker and win the division at 12-4.

And if Atlanta Beats the saints week 15 they clinch the division no matter what happens in their other remaining games.

So the meaning of all this.... If you want to cheer for our best chances of getting the #1 pick.... Hope the saints beat the Falcons!!!!!

So going back to SOS tiebreakers the saints losing to the Ravens is more beneficial to us, with no downside.

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