Does Jake have tunnel vision?

[Cyberjag]

As anyone who reads these boards regularly knows, the popular perception is that Jake has tunnel vision where Smitty is concerned, and the reason we don't have a good number two receiver is as much due to lack of opportunity as anything else. Smitty makes Jake, and no other receiver can ever develop until we get a new quarterback who won't just toss it up in the air and wait for Smith to bail him out.

So my question was, do the facts reflect this? Is Jake a one-trick pony, do the message boards actually have a point? Well, what do you think?

Here are the stats for the past season from Stats Inc. Note that because of incomplete receiving statistics for non-recievers, I backed into the numbers for tight ends and backs using completion percentages.

Jake threw to his receivers 287 times, and completed 168 passes for a 15.9 yard per catch average and 58.5% completion percentage.

Jake threw to his tight ends 63 times, and completed 39 passes for a 10.4 yard per catch average and 61.9% completion percentage.

Jake threw to his backs 64 times, and completed 39 passes for a 5.3 yard per catch average and 60.9% completion percentage.

Here are the receptions:

Smith 78 catches, 1421 yards

Muhammad, 65 catches, 923 yards

Hackett, 13 catches, 181 yards

Jarrett, 10 catches, 119 yards

Jones, 2 catches, 32 yards

King, 21 catches, 195 yards

Rosario, 18 catches, 209 yards

Williams, 22 catches, 121 yards

Stewart, 8 catches, 47 yards

Hoover, 6 catches, 39 yards

Goings, 3 catches, 1 yard

Among the reveivers, Jake threw to Smitty 129 times, Moose 108 times, Hackett 28 times, Jarrett 19 times, and Jones 3 times. Moose had the most drops at 8, Smitty was second with 6. Smitty had the highest yards per catch at 18.2 and the highest yards per attempt at 11. Kind of what you would expect from a number one receiver.

Here's the breakdown of how often Jake, Moose, and others got the opportunity to make a play:

Smitty: 31.2%

Moose: 26.1%

Other Receivers: 12.1%

Tight Ends: 15.3%

Backs: 15.3%

And here it is when you just focus on receivers:

Smitty (number one receiver): 44.9%

Moose (number two receiver): 37.6%

Others combined: 17.4%

Given that Smitty and Moose are your number one and number two, respectively, I think those are the numbers you would kind of expect on any team. But just to make sure, I took a look around the league. I tried to do New Orleans but they had way too many injuries and missed games to really tell how the distribution to the top receivers went. In Arizona, Fitzgerald gets 36.8% of the opportunities and Boldin gets 30.1%. I looked at Indianapolis too, and while it's more difficult because they really use Clark more as a receiver than a tight end, you can still get an idea just looking at receivers exclusively. When you do that Wayne gets 40.1% of the opportunities, Harrison gets 33%, and the rest of the receivers combine for 26.9%. In San Diego, Rivers threw to Gates more than anyone, but among his receivers Jackson got 45.9%, Chambers 29.1%, and the rest combined for 25%.

So after looking at all of that, I kind of think the whole tunnel vision idea is a crock, and it belongs in the trashbin along with the whole "Jake has no arm strength" and "Jake just has good numbers because of Smitty" myths. Of course, people who hate Jake don't care for the truth, and they'll be talking about tunnel vision inside of a week if they think they can get away with it and it helps their argument. But at least this information is out there now.

[pharmDmba]

damn! That's research.

[Mr. Scot]

As anyone who reads these boards regularly knows, the popular perception is that Jake has tunnel vision where Smitty is concerned, and the reason we don't have a good number two receiver is as much due to lack of opportunity as anything else. Smitty makes Jake, and no other receiver can ever develop until we get a new quarterback who won't just toss it up in the air and wait for Smith to bail him out.

So my question was, do the facts reflect this? Is Jake a one-trick pony, do the message boards actually have a point? Well, what do you think?

Here are the stats for the past season from Stats Inc. Note that because of incomplete receiving statistics for non-recievers, I backed into the numbers for tight ends and backs using completion percentages.

Jake threw to his receivers 287 times, and completed 168 passes for a 15.9 yard per catch average and 58.5% completion percentage.

Jake threw to his tight ends 63 times, and completed 39 passes for a 10.4 yard per catch average and 61.9% completion percentage.

Jake threw to his backs 64 times, and completed 39 passes for a 5.3 yard per catch average and 60.9% completion percentage.

Here are the receptions:

Smith 78 catches, 1421 yards

Muhammad, 65 catches, 923 yards

Hackett, 13 catches, 181 yards

Jarrett, 10 catches, 119 yards

Jones, 2 catches, 32 yards

King, 21 catches, 195 yards

Rosario, 18 catches, 209 yards

Williams, 22 catches, 121 yards

Stewart, 8 catches, 47 yards

Hoover, 6 catches, 39 yards

Goings, 3 catches, 1 yard

Among the reveivers, Jake threw to Smitty 129 times, Moose 108 times, Hackett 28 times, Jarrett 19 times, and Jones 3 times. Moose had the most drops at 8, Smitty was second with 6. Smitty had the highest yards per catch at 18.2 and the highest yards per attempt at 11. Kind of what you would expect from a number one receiver.

Here's the breakdown of how often Jake, Moose, and others got the opportunity to make a play:

Smitty: 31.2%

Moose: 26.1%

Other Receivers: 12.1%

Tight Ends: 15.3%

Backs: 15.3%

And here it is when you just focus on receivers:

Smitty (number one receiver): 44.9%

Moose (number two receiver): 37.6%

Others combined: 17.4%

Given that Smitty and Moose are your number one and number two, respectively, I think those are the numbers you would kind of expect on any team. But just to make sure, I took a look around the league. I tried to do New Orleans but they had way too many injuries and missed games to really tell how the distribution to the top receivers went. In Arizona, Fitzgerald gets 36.8% of the opportunities and Boldin gets 30.1%. I looked at Indianapolis too, and while it's more difficult because they really use Clark more as a receiver than a tight end, you can still get an idea just looking at receivers exclusively. When you do that Wayne gets 40.1% of the opportunities, Harrison gets 33%, and the rest of the receivers combine for 26.9%. In San Diego, Rivers threw to Gates more than anyone, but among his receivers Jackson got 45.9%, Chambers 29.1%, and the rest combined for 25%.

So after looking at all of that, I kind of think the whole tunnel vision idea is a crock, and it belongs in the trashbin along with the whole "Jake has no arm strength" and "Jake just has good numbers because of Smitty" myths. Of course, people who hate Jake don't care for the truth, and they'll be talking about tunnel vision inside of a week if they think they can get away with it and it helps their argument. But at least this information is out there now.

Good post.

I said elsewhere that I was amused some of the same crowd who were posting both that Jake locked on to Smith too much were also saying that Smith would have more catches if he played with a different QB.

(these folks apparently flunked math)

[Squirrel]

Yes. Stats are nice but it doesnt include players he has missed seeing being wide open while waiting for the player he was staring out to get open. Seen it plenty of time at games.

[bleys]

Great post.

And look at Jarrett's numbers. If those 10 catches were in 1 game, people would be raving about those numbers... I'd love to see more of him as #3 next year.

[Mr. Scot]

Yes. Stats are nice but it doesnt include players he has missed seeing being wide open while waiting for the player he was staring out to get open. Seen it plenty of time at games.

And you'd see it at plenty of other games too. It happens to every QB. As do interceptions, bad reads, poor throws, etc.

McNabb's NFC Championship performance is a great example. One great quarter, three bad ones. And on the final four down series, his last pass was on target, but the first three weren't.

Honestly, if anyone has tunnel vision, it's the fans who think that no other QB has problems except ours.

[Squirrel]

And you'd see it at plenty of other games too. It happens to every QB. As do interceptions, bad reads, poor throws, etc.

McNabb's NFC Championship performance is a great example. One great quarter, three bad ones. And on the final four down series, his last pass was on target, but the first three weren't.

Honestly, if anyone has tunnel vision, it's the fans who think that no other QB has problems except ours.

Even the stats show he has that problem. Big deal Smith and Moose are the #1 and #2 receivers Jake still locks on players.

[Munkey]

He can't read the field is his problem.

He will eyeball down his one reciever from the snap. It can be the Punter he's throwing to for all it matters, he will stare him down and wait until he gets in his route to break or whatever and then throw it. That's Jake's problem people have a problem with.

[Mr. Scot]

Even the stats show he has that problem. Big deal Smith and Moose are the #1 and #2 receivers Jake still locks on players.

Facts be darned, eh?

Smith and Moose are the top receivers for a couple of primary reasons:

Number one, on a team that prefers the run, you're not going to have the pass numbers that you'd have with a west coast approach. This season we went with a lot of two TE sets, which meant Smith and Moose were the only WRs even on the field. Basic math will tell you they're the guys that will get the catches.

Number two, and this one is a biggie to me, TRUST. Smith and Moose have earned it. I'm not so sure anyone beyond them has, at least not anywhere close to the level that they have.

Why do you think Keary Colbert only rarely got thrown to?

[Squirrel]

Facts be darned, eh?

Smith and Moose are the top receivers for a couple of primary reasons:

Number one, on a team that prefers the run, you're not going to have the pass numbers that you'd have with a west coast approach. This season we went with a lot of two TE sets, which meant Smith and Moose were the only WRs even on the field. Basic math will tell you they're the guys that will get the catches.

Number two, and this one is a biggie to me, TRUST. Smith and Moose have earned it. I'm not so sure anyone beyond them has, at least not anywhere close to the level that they have.

Why do you think Keary Colbert only rarely got thrown to?

But you are missing my point he has stared down players in the past and missed wide open ones. Jake would get locked on one player and miss the other one. Didnt matter who it was. He missed Smitty wide open a couple of times same as Moose.

[natty]

Cyberjag dropping some knowledge. Good stuff.

But, I wonder what the stats are on what percentage of plays he goes to his 1st/2nd/etc read. Of course it's impossible for anyone outside of the coaching staff to determine. I think people go with the tunnel vision because he rarely gets to his third read(but that can have a lot to do with Smitty's ability to get open and Jake's faith in him getting open).

[Munkey]

I don't see tunnel vision as focusing in on one reciever. I see it as focusing in on the reciever he plans on throwing it to. Lots of QB's have this problem, the better ones don't. Very rarely if a guy is toooooo covered he will look off and throw it, but by that time, Jake is already about to get sacked and will fumble the ball because he's already stared that one guy down far too long.

[panthers55]

So far in the 2009 season Jake hasn't thrown a pass. He has a new quarterback coach and is very motivated to come out this year and make amends for last season.

That is a good formula for success. Look how increased motivation helped Williams this year. Wouldn't be surprised if Jake had a very good year in 2009. It is a contract year for him if he isn't extended which he will likely be. As for last year and other prior ones. That is ancient history and may or may not have bearing on what happens next year.

[Squirrel]

So far in the 2009 season Jake hasn't thrown a pass. He has a new quarterback coach and is very motivated to come out this year and make amends for last season.

That is a good formula for success. Look how increased motivation helped Williams this year. Wouldn't be surprised if Jake had a very good year in 2009. It is a contract year for him if he isn't extended which he will likely be. As for last year and other prior ones. That is ancient history and may or may not have bearing on what happens next year.

We hold you to this statement about the past being nothing.