Crunching the Future's Numbers

[twylyght]

In reviewing the recent history (last 30 years) of how teams fared with high draft picks as opposed to lower ones, I give you this:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

Taking all of the draftees from 1980 to 2007 (we have yet to see how future classes will pan out), this is what the numbers show us:

In that time there have been 18 home runs hit in the draft for QB. Those are QBs that are Canton-bound or in there already. I stretched as far as Vick, but the vast majority are those household names like Elway, Manning, Roethlisberger, etc. Of those 18, 12 were picked from the 1st round. That tells us, that if you have a home run QB, then chances are likely that 2 out of 3 of those QBs came out of the 1st round.

Sounds like a good deal, right? Let's look at the rest of the story. From 1980 to 2007, 61 QBs have been selected in the first draft. That means that the chances of hitting a home run QB in round 1 are roughly 1 in 5. The other 80% are those household names like JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, and Jeff George with a number of no-so-household names like Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, and Todd Marionvich. Moreover, of QBs picked #1 in that same time span about 1 in 3 of those QBs will end up in Canton with roughly another 30% putting up serviceable careers.

So, if you are picking a QB at #1 for the draft, the numbers for the past 30 years tell us that a bit more than half will put in good/great careers for unbelievably hefty checks against your team's cap while a little less than half will be complete busts for unbelievably hefty checks against your team's cap space.

The chances of hitting a home run outside the first round? A little less than 2%. Of all QBs chosen in round 2 and beyond, a bit more than 10% go on to have serviceable careers for paychecks from the modest to the extreme.

The end result? What you are looking at with QB is a big "DUH!" from the numbers... the risk is severely high with the reward being almost that to match it (assuming that a Super Bowl title and winning records are worth the 100s of millions of dollars in salaries for good or ill).

So, to those that are positive that we should be selecting Luck with the #1 overal pick in next year's draft (assuming that he comes out) and crippling our cap in the process? I was of the opposite opinion before doing the research. Now, I am thinking that we should. I once thought that Peyton Manning would NEVER get a Super Bowl ring because of how his cap numbers would prohibit his team from getting the necessary pieces around him to make such a run possible. I was obvously wrong.

The reward is at the very least turning our team into an instant perennial contender for the next 1 to 2 decades. The risk is becoming the joke of the NFL for the same time span.

[Numen]

Good post. kudos.

[ladypanther]

So, it looks like we need some Luck here.

Nice post.

[Pimpdaddy]

In reviewing the recent history (last 30 years) of how teams fared with high draft picks as opposed to lower ones, I give you this:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

Taking all of the draftees from 1980 to 2007 (we have yet to see how future classes will pan out), this is what the numbers show us:

In that time there have been 18 home runs hit in the draft for QB. Those are QBs that are Canton-bound or in there already. I stretched as far as Vick, but the vast majority are those household names like Elway, Manning, Roethlisberger, etc. Of those 18, 12 were picked from the 1st round. That tells us, that if you have a home run QB, then chances are likely that 2 out of 3 of those QBs came out of the 1st round.

Sounds like a good deal, right? Let's look at the rest of the story. From 1980 to 2007, 61 QBs have been selected in the first draft. That means that the chances of hitting a home run QB in round 1 are roughly 1 in 5. The other 80% are those household names like JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, and Jeff George with a number of no-so-household names like Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, and Todd Marionvich. Moreover, of QBs picked #1 in that same time span about 1 in 3 of those QBs will end up in Canton with roughly another 30% putting up serviceable careers.

So, if you are picking a QB at #1 for the draft, the numbers for the past 30 years tell us that a bit more than half will put in good/great careers for unbelievably hefty checks against your team's cap while a little less than half will be complete busts for unbelievably hefty checks against your team's cap space.

The chances of hitting a home run outside the first round? A little less than 2%. Of all QBs chosen in round 2 and beyond, a bit more than 10% go on to have serviceable careers for paychecks from the modest to the extreme.

The end result? What you are looking at with QB is a big "DUH!" from the numbers... the risk is severely high with the reward being almost that to match it (assuming that a Super Bowl title and winning records are worth the 100s of millions of dollars in salaries for good or ill).

So, to those that are positive that we should be selecting Luck with the #1 overal pick in next year's draft (assuming that he comes out) and crippling our cap in the process? I was of the opposite opinion before doing the research. Now, I am thinking that we should. I once thought that Peyton Manning would NEVER get a Super Bowl ring because of how his cap numbers would prohibit his team from getting the necessary pieces around him to make such a run possible. I was obvously wrong.

The reward is at the very least turning our team into an instant perennial contender for the next 1 to 2 decades. The risk is becoming the joke of the NFL for the same time span.

Hopefully the new CBA will put a cap on rookie contracts as to not cripple the team financially... I want Luck if we have the chance, we need a franchise QB. Still need to improve the O line to improve any QB's chance of winning here....

[chknwing]

87% of all statistics are made up.

[R0CKnR0LLA]

2007 was an epic fail for QBs. Good lord just look at that list.

[rayzor]

i did some research simliar to this in january of '09...

i updated the info in this post to be more relevant, but this was some research i did at first in an effort to show why we didn't need to draft a QB in the first round. after a while, it actually did more to convince me it was a good idea. you can find successful QBs in other rounds but it's really scattered and you rely on even more luck than you do in the first round. sure, having one not work out may not be all that expensive...but how many are you going to have to go through to find that special one and hwo many teams are able to do that shopping in the later rounds? how many success stroies are there compared with the first round? selecting one in the first is no guarantee of success, but you stand a much greater chance of finding that special one if you get one in the first.

Since 1995 there have been:

38 Qbs taken in the 1st round

9 of those have been in the top 5 (A. Rodgers, P. Manning, Rivers, Pennington, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Palmer, Culpepper, McNair)

6 of those have been in the top 5 more than once (P. Manning, Pennington, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Culpepper, McNair)

7 of those have been in the Superbowl

2 of those have been (or will be) in the Superbowl more than once (P. Manning, Roethlisberger)

3 of those have a Superbowl Ring (P. Manning, E. Manning, Roethlisberger)

Roethlisberger is the only one that has more than 1 Superbowl ring

Since 1995

14 1st round QBs have been in the top 5

10 1st round QBs have been in the top 5 more than once

11 1st round QBs have been in the Superbowl

6 1st round QBs have gotten a Superbowl Ring

2 1st round QB has gotten more than 1 Superbowl ring (Johnn Elway, Roethlisberger)

There have only been 2 Superbowls since 1995 that both QBs were 1st round picks. There have been 3 Superbowls in that time that no 1st round QBs were in.

2009

1--Matt Stafford

5—Mark Sanchez

17-- Josh Freeman

Top 5 QBS in 2009: Matt Schaub ('04/3rd round), P.Manning('98/1st) , Romo(ND), Rodgers ('05/1st), Brady Warner(NotDrafted), Brady ('00/6th)

Superbowl QBS: Brees('01/2nd), P.Manning('98/1st)

2008

3--- Matt Ryan

18-- Joe Flacco

Top 5 QBS in 2008: Rivers(2004/1st round), Pennington('00/1st), Warner(NotDrafted), Brees('01/2nd), P.Manning('98/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Warner(NotDrafted), Roethlisberger('04/1st)

2007

1--- JaMarcus Russell

22-- Brady Quinn

Top 5: Brady('00/6th), Roethlisberger('04/1st), Garrard('02/4th), P.Manning('98/1st), Romo(ND)

Superbowl QBS: Eli Manning('04/1st), Brady('00/6th)

2006

3--- Vince Young

10-- Matt Leinart

11-- Jay Cutler

Top 5: P.Manning('98/1st), Damon Huard(ND), Brees('01/2nd), McNabb('99/1st), Romo(ND)

Superbowl QBS: P.Manning('98/1st), Rex Grossman('03/1st)

2005

1--- Alex Smith

24-- Aaron Rodgers

25-- Jason Campbell

Top 5: P.Manning('98/1st), Palmer('03/1st), Roethlisberger('04/1st), Hasselbeck('98/6th), Bulger('00/6th)

Superbowl QBS: Roethlisberger('04/1st), Hasselbeck('98/6th)

2004

1--- Eli Manning

4--- Philip Rivers

11-- Ben Roethlisberger

22-- J.P. Losman

Top 5: P.Manning('98/1st), Daunte Culpepper('99/1st), Brees('01/2nd), McNabb('99/1st round), Roethlisberger('04/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brady('00/6th), McNabb('99/1st round)

2003

1--- Carson Palmer

7--- Byron Leftwich

19-- Kyle Boller

22-- Rex Grossman

Top 5: McNair('95/1st), P.Manning('98/1st), Daunte Culpepper('99/1st), Trent Green('93/8th), Jake Plummer('97/2nd)

Superbowl QBS: Brady('00/6th), Jake Delhomme(ND)

2002

1--- David Carr

3--- Joey Harrington

32-- Patrick Ramsey

Top 5: Chad Pennington('00/1st), Rich Gannon('87/4th), Brad Johnson('92/9th), Trent Green('93/8th), P.Manning('98/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brad Johnson('92/9th), Rich Gannon('87/4th)

2001

1--- Michael Vick

Top 5: Kurt Warner(ND), Rich Gannon('87/4th), Jeff Garcia(ND), Favre('91/2nd), McNair('95/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brady('00/6th), Kurt Warner(ND)

2000

18-- Chad Pennington

Top 5: Brian Griese('98/3rd), Trent Green('93/8th), Kurt Warner(ND), Daunte Culpepper('99/1st), Jeff Garcia(ND)

Superbowl QBS: Trent Dilfer('94/1st), Kerry Collins('95/1st)

1999

1--- Tim Couch

2--- Donovan McNabb

3--- Akili Smith

11-- Daunte Culpepper

12-- Cade McNown

Top 5: Kurt Warner(ND), Steve Beuerlein('87/4th), Jeff George('90/1st), P.Manning('98/1st), Brad Johnson('92/9th)

Superbowl QBS: Kurt Warner(ND), Steve McNair('95/1st)

1998

1--- Peyton Manning

2--- Ryan Leaf

Top 5: Randall Cunningham('85/2nd), Vinny Testaverde('87/1st), Steve Young(ND?), Chris Chandler('88/3rd), John Elway('83/1st)

Superbowl QBS: John Elway('83/1st), Chris Chandler('88/3rd)

1997

26-- Jim Druckenmiller

Top 5: Steve Young(ND?), Chris Chandler('88/3rd), Favre('91/2nd), Mark Brunell('93/5th), Jeff George('90/1st)

Superbowl QBS: John Elway('83/1st), Brett Favre('91/2nd)

1996

none

Top 5: Steve Young(ND?), Favre('91/2nd), Brad Johnson('92/9th), John Elway('83/1st), Vinny Testaverde('87/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brett Favre('91/2nd), Drew Bledsoe('93/1st)

1995

3--- Steve McNair

5--- Kerry Collins

Top 5: Jim Harbaugh('87/1st), Favre('91/2nd), Troy Aikman('89/1st), Erik Kramer(ND), Scott Mitchell('90/4th)

Superbowl QBS: Troy Aikman('89/1st), Neil Odonnell('90/3rd)

[rayzor]

some more analysis i did prior to the '09 season. i'd update it, but i'm too tired for that. someone else can do it if they feel up to it.

re: "considering you see nearly the same % of elite QBs come from round 6 and later than round 1"

compare the number of rd 6 or UDFAs taken with the number of 1st rounders and what has the better rate of success?

can't tell you about the UDFAs but comparing the 1st and 6th rounds

since 1998:

1st round

33 taken

10 probowlers (33%)

5 multiple probowls (15%)

23 starting multiple years (70%)

6th round

24 drafted

4 probowlers (17%)

4 multiple probowlers (17%)

4 starting multiple years (17%)

rounds 2-5 are abysmal and the 7th equally so.

not to put too much weight on the probowl but QBs who go there are usually pretty good. imo, it's a good bar to set concerning QBs.

ok...here's a list of those QBs that started multiple years (or will be going into 2009):

peyton - 11

mcnabb - 9

harrington - 6

culpepper - 5

pennington - 5

carr - 5

big ben - 5

vick - 4

boller - 4

palmer - 4

eli - 4

couch - 3

leftwich - 3

rivers - 3

smith - 3

grossman - 2

campbell - 2

cutler - 2

young - 2

ryan and flacco will be entering their 2nd years.

bolded are starting this coming year. young may be. that hasn't been decided yet. he still has a ton of talent and when he gets his head squared away (which it sounds like is happening, i have no doubt that he will turn back into the same pro-bowl QB he was his rookie year.

that is 12 or 13 who will still be starting. had vick not had his legal troubles he would still be starting. you may hate him as much as i do but the guy had/has talent and produced big time. is he someone that we would have ever drafted? most likely not.

remember, you also have to add into that last year's guys...stafford, sanchez, and freeman. all three of these guys are now 2nd year starters. all three are doing well. (well, stafford would be if he wasn't hurt). people are talking about sanchez having an argument for league MVP.

also, remember that vick is also having a spectacular year...probably the best he's ever had. for sure he's with the best team he's ever been a part of. where was he drafted? first round. can't really call him a bust anymore, imo. turned out bad for the falcons...kind of but they managed to get themselves a solid QB as well...in the first round. this will likely be the 2nd time he has taken that team to the playoffs. sanchez is going to be taking his team to the playoffs for the second time this year as well.

it would be worth it for someone to go back this decade and see how many QBs that have gone to the playoffs were drafted in the first round. and how many made multiple trips there.