For those of you wanting to draft a QB in the 1st round...

[chbright]

so we should just keep drafting QBs until we find the right one? how many 1st round draft picks have paid off and won their teams superbowls?

i'm just saying that drafting a 1st rounder doesn't help our chances of getting to the superbowl all that much. history has shown that to be true. you are more likely to get a bust than you are someone who can get you a ring.

1st round qbs won it 46%, 1 as dilfer who i think was with another team. so 5/13 thats still 38%. thats better than any other round.

damn forgot cowboys in that:

so its 53% and 46% on same team.

if big ben wins its 50% for 1st rounders on the same team as they were drafted by in 14 years.

[rayzor]

of the 70 that occupied a top 5 slot:

33/70 from the 1st = 47%

9/70 from the 2nd = 13%

3/70 from the 3rd = 4%

5/70 from the 4th 7%

1/70 in the 5th 2%

3/70 in the 6th 4%

0/70 7th 0%

16 ND (atleast would have been in the modern format) 23%

6/33 1st rounders after 1994 draft have been multiple time top 5 guys right:

thats 18%

1 out of the 2nd (brees) out of all the 2nd rounders from 1994 on. bet there are more than 5 total in that span (which would acould for 20%, any more and your worse off).

1 out of the 6th (brady) out of all the 6th rounders from 1994 on. bet there are more than 5 total in that span (which would acould for 20%, any more and your worse off).

2 ND out of the ND (warner and romo) out of all the undrafteds from 1994 on. bet there are more than 9 total in that span (which would acould for 20%, any more and your worse off).

so from guys that became eligable or drafted 1st still wins on best chance at getting a guy. keep spinning it.

All i have been saying that just because you draft a 1st rounder doesn't mean that they are going to be the one who gets you to the Superbowl. Just because you draft a QB in the first round doesn't mean that he is going to be a top 5.

Sure, your chances are greater, but you are still much more likely to have a bust on your hand than a top 5. It is a shot in the dark. How can you say which of those high profile QBs going into the draft are going to be a top 5?

Everyone who drafts one early is hoping for a John Elway. They are hoping for that one special QB that is going to be their champion. Most of the time it results in failure. They may have a decent QB but what good does that QB do you if you can't get a ring?

I'm not saying a first round QB is a guaranteed failure but you should expect that your first round QB that you spend 15 million on a year (who hasn't yet proven anything) has only a less than 20% chance of being successful. Not great odds, imo.

[rayzor]

1st round qbs won it 46%, 1 as dilfer who i think was with another team. so 5/13 thats still 38%. thats better than any other round.

damn forgot cowboys in that:

so its 53% and 46% on same team.

if big ben wins its 50% for 1st rounders on the same team as they were drafted by in 14 years.

1st round QBs can be huge and I have never disputed that. Finding that one that is going to be huge is the biggest problem. Unless you are drafting someone like peyton manning it is a huge gamble. Most of the time it is going to result in disappointment and no rings.

[rayzor]

It has also shown that it is worth the risk to try every so often, depending on your teams make-up.

What Super pressing needs do we have?

We need everything along the defensive line, so suppose we do draft all Dline, and our defense still sucks.

Yet we could get a QB that could make our offense good enough to make up for how bad the defense would be w/o those Dline picks........

drew brees almost set the record for the most passing yards in a season. he is arguably i the top 5 maybe 10 QBs ever. what good is that doing him or the saints?

they have an awesome offense but a horrible defense. it isn't enough.

it wasn't until the cardinals showed up in the playoffs with a powerhouse defense that they stood a chance.

if you have a good defense you don't need so much work out of your offense. having a team that can come back from a 30 point deficit is great but i would rather never have to use it. give me a defense that can shut down offenses any day.

[Fox007]

drew brees almost set the record for the most passing yards in a season. he is arguably i the top 5 maybe 10 QBs ever. what good is that doing him or the saints?

they have an awesome offense but a horrible defense. it isn't enough.

it wasn't until the cardinals showed up in the playoffs with a powerhouse defense that they stood a chance.

if you have a good defense you don't need so much work out of your offense. having a team that can come back from a 30 point deficit is great but i would rather never have to use it. give me a defense that can shut down offenses any day.

I would rather have a #1 defense than offense anyday.

[rayzor]

I would rather have a #1 defense than offense anyday.

i agree with that.

right now the biggest concern is trying to build that #1 defense. getting rid of trgo and building through FA and the draft is a big step in that direction. Fox getting the boot if things don't turn around this year would be another big step.

i don't think that we have a team that we can afford to risk a first round pick on a QB. (crap, we don't even have a first round pick).

drafting one in the past couple years wouldn't have gotten us much closer to the ring than we have been. if the rest of the team is struggling it would have been a wasted pick.