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For those of you wanting to draft a QB in the 1st round...

rayzor

By rayzor,
in Carolina Panthers

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

Posted
Posted

I thought about this in the other thread complaining about us not taking a QB in the first and thought I would do a little research. I thought what I found deserved it's own thread. Merge if you want but I can see this info being good for arguments for a long time.

Since 1995 there have been:

33 Qbs taken in the 1st round

8 of those have been in the top 5 (P. Manning, Rivers, Pennington, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Palmer, Culpepper, McNair)

6 of those have been in the top 5 more than once (P. Manning, Pennington, Roethlisberger, McNabb, Culpepper, McNair)

7 of those have been in the Superbowl

1 of those have been (or will be) in the Superbowl more than once (Roethlisberger)

3 of those have a Superbowl Ring (P. Manning, E. Manning, Roethlisberger)

None of those have more than 1 Superbowl ring

Since 1995

13 1st round QBs have been in the top 5

10 1st round QBs have been in the top 5 more than once

11 1st round QBs have been in the Superbowl

6 1st round QBs have gotten a Superbowl Ring

1 1st round QB has gotten more than 1 Superbowl ring (Johnn Elway)

There have only been 2 Superbowls since 1995 that both QBs were 1st round picks. There have been 3 Superbowls in that time that no 1st round QBs were in.

2008

3--- Matt Ryan

18-- Joe Flacco

Top 5 QBS in 2008: Rivers(2004/1st round), Pennington('00/1st), Warner(NotDrafted), Brees('01/2nd), P.Manning('98/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Warner(NotDrafted), Roethlisberger('04/1st),

2007

1--- JaMarcus Russell

22-- Brady Quinn

Top 5: Brady('00/6th), Roethlisberger('04/1st), Garrard('02/4th), P.Manning('98/1st), Romo(ND)

Superbowl QBS: Eli Manning('04/1st), Brady('00/6th)

2006

3--- Vince Young

10-- Matt Leinart

11-- Jay Cutler

Top 5: P.Manning('98/1st), Damon Huard(ND), Brees('01/2nd), McNabb('99/1st), Romo(ND)

Superbowl QBS: P.Manning('98/1st), Rex Grossman('03/1st)

2005

1--- Alex Smith

24-- Aaron Rodgers

25-- Jason Campbell

Top 5: P.Manning('98/1st), Palmer('03/1st), Roethlisberger('04/1st), Hasselbeck('98/6th), Bulger('00/6th)

Superbowl QBS: Roethlisberger('04/1st), Hasselbeck('98/6th)

2004

1--- Eli Manning

4--- Philip Rivers

11-- Ben Roethlisberger

22-- J.P. Losman

Top 5: P.Manning('98/1st), Daunte Culpepper('99/1st), Brees('01/2nd), McNabb('99/1st round), Roethlisberger('04/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brady('00/6th), McNabb('99/1st round)

2003

1--- Carson Palmer

7--- Byron Leftwich

19-- Kyle Boller

22-- Rex Grossman

Top 5: McNair('95/1st), P.Manning('98/1st), Daunte Culpepper('99/1st), Trent Green('93/8th), Jake Plummer('97/2nd)

Superbowl QBS: Brady('00/6th), Jake Delhomme(ND)

2002

1--- David Carr

3--- Joey Harrington

32-- Patrick Ramsey

Top 5: Chad Pennington('00/1st), Rich Gannon('87/4th), Brad Johnson('92/9th), Trent Green('93/8th), P.Manning('98/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brad Johnson('92/9th), Rich Gannon('87/4th)

2001

1--- Michael Vick

Top 5: Kurt Warner(ND), Rich Gannon('87/4th), Jeff Garcia(ND), Favre('91/2nd), McNair('95/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brady('00/6th), Kurt Warner(ND)

2000

18-- Chad Pennington

Top 5: Brian Griese('98/3rd), Trent Green('93/8th), Kurt Warner(ND), Daunte Culpepper('99/1st), Jeff Garcia(ND)

Superbowl QBS: Trent Dilfer('94/1st), Kerry Collins('95/1st)

1999

1--- Tim Couch

2--- Donovan McNabb

3--- Akili Smith

11-- Daunte Culpepper

12-- Cade McNown

Top 5: Kurt Warner(ND), Steve Beuerlein('87/4th), Jeff George('90/1st), P.Manning('98/1st), Brad Johnson('92/9th)

Superbowl QBS: Kurt Warner(ND), Steve McNair('95/1st)

1998

1--- Peyton Manning

2--- Ryan Leaf

Top 5: Randall Cunningham('85/2nd), Vinny Testaverde('87/1st), Steve Young(ND?), Chris Chandler('88/3rd), John Elway('83/1st)

Superbowl QBS: John Elway('83/1st), Chris Chandler('88/3rd)

1997

26-- Jim Druckenmiller

Top 5: Steve Young(ND?), Chris Chandler('88/3rd), Favre('91/2nd), Mark Brunell('93/5th), Jeff George('90/1st)

Superbowl QBS: John Elway('83/1st), Brett Favre('91/2nd)

1996

none

Top 5: Steve Young(ND?), Favre('91/2nd), Brad Johnson('92/9th), John Elway('83/1st), Vinny Testaverde('87/1st)

Superbowl QBS: Brett Favre('91/2nd), Drew Bledsoe('93/1st)

1995

3--- Steve McNair

5--- Kerry Collins

Top 5: Jim Harbaugh('87/1st), Favre('91/2nd), Troy Aikman('89/1st), Erik Kramer(ND), Scott Mitchell('90/4th)

Superbowl QBS: Troy Aikman('89/1st), Neil Odonnell('90/3rd)

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mountainpantherfan Newbie

mountainpantherfan

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Posted

Steve Young wasn't drafted? Are you sure about that?

Anyway, you have put alot of research into this. But do this same breakdown for every other position and it would look exactly the same. Hell, with most it would actually look worse like WR and OT and DE.

Everyone forgets about a DE taken in the first round that ends up a bust but no one forgets a QB that ends up a bust.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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Steve Young wasn't drafted? Are you sure about that?

Anyway, you have put alot of research into this. But do this same breakdown for every other position and it would look exactly the same. Hell, with most it would actually look worse like WR and OT and DE.

Everyone forgets about a DE taken in the first round that ends up a bust but no one forgets a QB that ends up a bust.

he went to the USFL in '84 instead and then was drafted in '85 by the Bucs but it was in a supplemental draft in september so i'm not sure where to put him.
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zebrainz Newbie

zebrainz

Posted
Posted

Steve Young started out in USFL. If he was drafted, he did not sign with the original team that drafted him. I can't remember how well he did at Brigham Young, he was there in their passing heyday, after McMahon I think.

edit: nm

edit 2: this is what pro-footballreference.com says:

Drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 1st round (1st overall) of the 1984 Supplemental Draft

there was a 3 round supplemental draft that year because the USFL went belly up.

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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by the way....33 QBs drafted in the first in that time frame. only 24 teams have drafted a QB in the first, 9 of them did it twice.

2- falcons

2- ravens

raiders

2- browns

2- titans/oilers

cardinals

broncos

2- 49ers

packers

2- redskins

2- chargers

giants

steelers

bills

2- bengals

jaguars

2- bears

texans

lions

jets

eagles

vikings

colts

panthers

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rayzor Grand Master

rayzor

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Gotch ya!

BTW, while I might not have agreed with your point, the research was very impressive. Lots of respect.

i understood what you were getting at about it looking very similar to just about every other position. the truth is, though, a lot more is expected out of the QBs, especially 1st rounders and there is this assumption that drafting one or not drafting one is almost a matter of life or death for an organization.

there have been some QBs drafted in the first round that have been really impressive but there are a whole lot more who are not. many are mediocre, many others are total busts for one reason or another.

it is a huge risk drafting anyone in the first, but especially a QB because of what that position means to a team. the evidence shows that most of the time it just doesn't pay off. i don't blame hurney or any other GM for not chasing after QBs in the 1st round.

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dksmith17 Newbie

dksmith17

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Posted

Nice post rayzor.

I look at it like this. Look at what the top 3 premeire organizations in the league have done( Patriots, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh).

1 team went with the late draft pick route(Brady, Cassell) and the other two went the 1st round route. I don't think that you necessarily draft out of need in a round. You just draft a player that you love. Simple as that.

BTW... I don't love any QB in this draft from what I have seen.

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