If first round QBs are "destined busts" as people like to refer them to...

[Urrymonster]

Raging...

People are not necessarily disagreeing with you. They are just trying to find the logic and answer your questions. Just because they are thinking of reasons, does not mean they nec. agree with them. For the record I personally feel we should have drafted Quinn when we had the opportunity - although Beason has turned out to be a better investment. In addition if I were this FO I would be looking into enquiring about the availability of Leinart, especially if Arizona re-sign Warner to more than a one year deal. Although if they win the superbowl I fully expect him to retire.

Anyway, my point. You have mentioned several times that the draft is in all intents and purposes down to luck. A crap-shoot many call it, and it is. The reason why many teams shy away from deciding they are taking a QB in the first - even if they have better players availble on the board - is because of the investment is magnified for QBs. Simply no other position commands the same investment and it is the same reason why teams simply DO NOT want to be picking in the top 10. Get it wrong and you basically force your team to carry a contract like Peppers for 6 years. That is why teams are looking more to the 'safe' picks in OTs these days, because they know that their chances of not waisting that money is reduced.

When you are effectively gambling the future of the team on a pick I would go with the safest pick EVERY time. It can be crippling if you get it wrong. Those teams you mentioned that took QBs without any form of other talent were able to ride the mistakes simply because their teams had no talent. They could cut, trade and not re-sign players because they were all so bad that it didn't matter. Teams that are effectively loaded with talent will hardly ever take the risk because it inevitably will mean they can't keep one of their proven players in a years time or so.

Like I said I would like us to actively pursue a QB as I have little faith in Delhomme and our offense is perfect for a young guy to come into. BUT if we had the chance of picking in the top 10 I would want us to trade down every time, much like I would want us to take the surest pick rather than reaching for a QB every time.

[Delhommey]

We "missed" on Orton and Anderson? Good one.

It's telling that even when you're able to both cherry pick and look in hindsight this is all you can find.

How long till we get mad at Fox for not tanking last season so he could get Ryan?

Look I know people like to bitch for no reason but this is getting silly.

[DaveThePanther2008]

Let's take a look at an fuller list of QB's we "missed" in the first or second round in Fox's tenure:

02 - Harrington and Ramsey passed over for Peppers

03 - Boller and Grossman passed over for Gross

04 - No real prospects here. Losman was the closest at 22. We got Gamble instead

05 - Rodgers and Campbell passed over for Davis.

06 - Clemens and T Jackson passed over for Williams

07 - Quinn and Kolb passed up for Beason (and Kalil)

08 - Flacco and Brohm (2nd) passed up for Stewart and Otah

Of these 13 QB's only 3 started fulltime this year.

So Fox and Hurney gets 9 key starters instead of taking a 76% chance we get a guy who doesn't even start.

Man what a bunch of idiots.

TYVM.....And Quinn and Rodgers only started this year.

Do we need to get a replacement for Jake in the mix. ABSOLUTELY. Am I ready to force retirement on Jake just yet? NO. I know the wheel to the bandwagon fell off and everyone tumbled to the ground. I don't think we can beat Jake up any harder than he is beating himself up.

I could see us grabbing a 2nd or 3rd rounder if a steal is there. Hopefully we get Peppers traded and have the opportunity to get a couple extra picks where we might be able to invest in a good young prospect.

Go Panthers

[Bama Panther]

Why would a team use a top ten pick on a Boom or Bust corner when they could get a stud QB?

How do we know that Hurney would have not taken Big Ben if given the chance?

This is not a strong argument.

We know it because Fox has, on many occassions, stated that he does not believe in taking a first round quarterback.

I think you have the argument mixed up. I don't believe the OP is saying that the Panthers should have drafted a QB instead of one of the guys they drafted. I believe he is more or less saying that first round QBs are not as terrible as everyone thinks and that maybe the Panthers should look at drafting one at some point.

Also, for the argument of "How do you know our guys would have had as much success somewhere else," how do you know that one the QBs that was available when the Panthers drafted would not have had as much or more success than they have had with their current team? It a stupid argument either way, because nobody knows how any player would have performed had he been drafted by another team.

[Williams34]

Joe Flacco sucks.

Id take him

[X-Clown]

Let me add another point.

A lot of people were heavy on the Titans as a postseason favorite. After all, they had the classic mold of an old-school team. Strong running game, strong defense, game-managing QB (Collins)

But it turned out when his name was called, Kerry couldn't step up, and was largely ineffective and picked off more than once.

This isn't 1991. You don't get far without a QB who can take you distance when his name is called upon. Just having a "game manager" isn't going to cut it.

This is funny. Joe Flacco was NOT a game manager this season? In that game against Tennessee, he really was lights out in moving the ball downfield....11-22 for 161 yards. Collins was picked off only once, and threw for 280 yards....and you can't tell me the game didn't change when Chris Johnson got hurt at the end of the first half. It's also tough to blame Collins for Lendale White and Alge Crumpler losing fumbles in that game.

Had we gotten Flacco this season, do you really think we would be THAT much better off and would have gone to the Super Bowl, given how bad our defense has played? It's not like we would have been able to have him bring Baltimore's defense with him.

[Delhommey]

We know it because Fox has, on many occassions, stated that he does not believe in taking a first round quarterback.

Yet they were making moves for Ryan.

Call it a smoke screen all you want. I think it was legit.

[chbright]

We "missed" on Orton and Anderson? Good one.

It's telling that even when you're able to both cherry pick and look in hindsight this is all you can find.

How long till we get mad at Fox for not tanking last season so he could get Ryan?

Look I know people like to bitch for no reason but this is getting silly.

oh i dont disagree in the slightest. it shows how hard it is to find one outside the top of the draft. like you said even in hindsite, very few have been there that have panned out to a competent starter for atleast 1 year.

[rayzor]

1st round QBs are not "destined busts but it is much more likely that they will bust than succeed. This year was a fluke having 2 rookie QBs in the playoffs.

Having a 1st round QB is a huge gamble that seldom pays off. It is incredibly rare that they (or any rookie QBs) are ever able to contribute right away. It takes a couple years, usually, for a rookie to learn the ropes. Throwing him in too early you risk having a David Carr (who was no exception except that he was able to last so long in one situation).

Am I against drafting a QB in the 1st? nope, but i don't think it will solve our problems.

I would much rather have someone else pay to develop a QB for a couple years and then us pick them up than pay a rookie 25 million bucks to sit on the bench for 2 years while he carries a clipboard and learns.

[Lt Pinkerton]

Well with the hiring of a new QB coach I think it became more likely that we could potentially draft a QB early.

[Carolina Husker]

The reason the Ravens made it to the AFC Championship has about as much to do with Flacco as the reason we lost to the Cardinals does with Jonathan Stewart.

Meaning not very much.

Fox and Hurney have been very good in the draft the last few years. There wasn't a QB there that we should have taken, save the Colbert over Schaub pick. But that's a tough argument to make.

[Murph]

I read somewhere that first round QB's have the highest percentage of busts. Makes sense. Guess what position was #2?

DT. Yep, another need that I doubt we use our first rounder on (if we get one from a Peppers trade). Hurney/Fox will play it safe and I don't blame them. Their success ratio with first round picks can not be underestimated.

[chbright]

1st round QBs are not "destined busts but it is much more likely that they will bust than succeed. This year was a fluke having 2 rookie QBs in the playoffs.

Having a 1st round QB is a huge gamble that seldom pays off. It is incredibly rare that they (or any rookie QBs) are ever able to contribute right away. It takes a couple years, usually, for a rookie to learn the ropes. Throwing him in too early you risk having a David Carr (who was no exception except that he was able to last so long in one situation).

Am I against drafting a QB in the 1st? nope, but i don't think it will solve our problems.

I would much rather have someone else pay to develop a QB for a couple years and then us pick them up than pay a rookie 25 million bucks to sit on the bench for 2 years while he carries a clipboard and learns.

2008

Matt Ryan

Joe Flacco

2007

JaMarcus Russell (looked better, still early)

Brady Quinn (looked good, but limitted time, likely starter next year)

2006

Vince Young (might have a bust, but also roty)

Matt Leinart (might have a bust, but really gona argue for him over warner right now?)

Jay Cutler

2005

Alex D. Smith (found 1!)

Aaron Rodgers (1 year so far looked good)

Jason Campbell (starts, not a huge fan)

2004

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

J.P. Losman (found another finally)

2003

Carson Palmer

Byron Leftwich (found 3rd)

Kyle Boller (4th)

Rex Grossman (5th)

2002

David Carr(6)

Joey Harrington (7)

Patrick Ramsey (8)

2001

Michael Vick

(note Brees was top 2nd round pick)

2000

Chad Pennington

i was expecting to be overwelmed with bad ones or even 50-50. alot of the bust also got thrown to the wolves early, and if we do that then we have a higher likely hood we ruin a QB.

[Bama Panther]

Yet they were making moves for Ryan.

Call it a smoke screen all you want. I think it was legit.

What moves were they making? Absolutely none that you could call concrete "moves."

Sure, they scouted the guy and talked highly of him. They do that with every prospect that many organizations view highly.