What recent developments mean, and what to expect

[BlindSite]

Answering a few questions

What will the Panthers do about Peppers

Based on the statements from Peppers himself and his agent it's pretty clear to everyone that Peppers is wanting to leave Carolina. After spending his life in North Carolina and being the centre piece of a team that perennially seems to be on the cusp, Peppers wants a change, and that's understandable. The question that remains however, is what the Panthers front office plans to about lessening the blow to the defence and just how Hurney plans to work this situation to his advantage.

The good news for the franchise is bad news for Peppers. Carolina has the power to tag Peppers with either form of the franchise tag. The Franchise tag, for those unawares, comes in two kinds

Exclusive Rights: Player cannot negotiate with other teams. Must be paid either 120% of their salary the previous year, or an average of the top 5 highest paid players (current year) at their position.

Non-Exclusive Rights: Player can negotiate with other teams, if the other team chooses to sign the player to an offer sheet, the original team has the right to match the offer. If they opt not to match that offer, the other team has to provide the original team with compensation (2 first round picks). Must be paid 120% of their previous year's salary or an average of the top 5 highest paid players in the previous year.

Normally for defensive end this number would be between 8 and 10 million. Peppers though, due to is high earning this year would likely be on an ofer sheet costing the team somewhere around 17 million against the cap.

The idea for the Panthers will be to sign Peppers to a Non-Exclusive rights franchise tag, allow he and his agent to negotiate with interested parties and when Peppers is ready to sign with the team, trade him away for compensation.

I believe that with this method, the Panthers might come out in a better situation than previous. This will allow the Panthers to free up nearly 15 million in cap space, easily keep Gross, sign one of the big name defensive line free agents (Suggs, Haynesworth, Babineaux, unforeseen releases etc) and draft another key cog on the defense.

This of course is a best case scenario, the worst case is if we tag Peppers and he and his agent find a buyer who isn’t willing to come to the table with the Panthers in regards to the franchise's needs and we're left with a 17 million dollar 30 yr old angry key cog to the defense, that we may just release and get nothing for anyway.

The best way for the Panthers to play this is to be open and honest, “he's tagged, make us an offer”. The other bad scenario is a team like Detroit a known no chance contender for at least two seasons offers the Panthers something they can't refuse. Consider this: the Lions have their own disgruntled group of serviceable players, and also a big fat first round pick they picked up from Dallas for Roy Williams. They could trade both a player and the pick and pick up Peppers and maybe some late draft pick ammunition (depending on Detroit’s offer) rebuilding teams need to manoeuvre in the draft. This would give the Panthers what they want, but Peppers would be stuck in a nothing team in a 43 and likely would refuse to accept the trade and drag out a labour issue.

The final possibility is the Panthers simply do nothing and Peppers departs on happy cuddles terms.

Either way, the above should cover some explanation as to what to expect from the situation in the coming months.

Why won't Hurney fire Trgovac?

Mike Trgovac has been much maligned for a number of years as Carolina's defensive coordinator and it appears that he, like Henning before him may have run his course in Carolina.

The question then becomes “What are they waiting for” the answer is relatively simple. It's still the playoff season and the availability of defensive coaching talent hasn't fully been made available. It's difficult to tell who'll be promoted, fired and hired as a result of the head coaching alterations. Without knowing exactly what went wrong in the lead up to the playoffs where Carolina had major defensive issues, firing Trgovac might not fix anything at all.

That being said, who else can take the position? Tim Lewis has experience, but for a fan base screaming for a more aggressive style, Tim Lewis' weak schemes involving about as much pressure as a moist tissue and even less coverage in the zone schemes, the franchise as a whole would be taking a massive backwards step.

Looking elsewhere around the league many of the head coaches and general managers being hired and fired will undoubtedly revolutionize the staff in their respective towns, meaning a glut of talented coordinators will be hitting the open market. There's no reason to fire a coordinator who's been pretty decent, most of the time, certainly not terrible as a coordinator when his talent has maintained health and execution, without having some form of target, especially after the team managed a 12-4 record and won the division.

Just what is the cap situation?

Pat Yasinskas over at ESPN was a little premature with is cap figures of Carolina being 10 million under the cap in the new year.

There is still a huge amount of adjusting to be done, not just to the actual figure the cap will be, but also what bonuses were and weren't hit and what not having Gross or Peppers on the books will mean. Yasinskas is a little conservative, the space is more likely to be in the vicinity of 20 - 30 million depending on how accurate certain sources are. This number will fluctuate based on what the Panthers do in the next few months. Basically what I am saying is, ignore Yasinskas he's not a capologist, and watch this space for updates.

Figuring the panthers use the resources they have to free some cap space even Albert Haynesworth as a free agent may be an option for the Panthers, he'll command likely highest defensive player, Jared Allen esque money in the ceiling of a 12-14 mill cap figure. That could leave 18 - 16 million remaining to pick up the complimentary pieces and extend the players they wish to keep.

30 million is probably a more accurate picture for what the Panthers may have to work with. Generally speaking a number of about 8 or 9 is kept under the cap for the unforeseeable future and midyear signings that take place. So 22 million to sign Gross and a defensive line high ticket free agent is very much in the realm of possibility.

The Panthers can take a high tag free agent, sign their picks and keep Gross this offseason, and for the Panthers to have another successful year, realistically that's what they need.

Who goes and who stays?

Expect to see the following guys in other uniforms in 09 whether they’re released in salary cap moves or not resigned:

DJ Hackett – Injury Prone disappointment

Darwin Walker – See above

Adam Seward – Wants out, wants to start and won’t in Carolina

Geoff Hangartner – Starting calibre interior lineman and should get snaffled by a rebuilding team

Julius Peppers – Wants to go, probably will end up being traded

James Anderson – Hasn’t developed how he was expected to, excellent STer, but not much of a linebacker

Restructures or extensions:

Jake Delhomme – The team can ease that 6 million by giving him an extension. He’s only signed through 09 and I think the team will want to come out and say “He’s our guy”

Ken Lucas – 9 million for poor coverage isn’t economical with Gross to keep on books. We can probably get along without him. Marshall is ready to start and CJ Wilson is deserving of more playing time at nickel.

Re-Signed

Jordan Gross – The most pivotal signature to the franchise right now.

[BlindSite]

Things to keep in mind

1) Mike McCoy just left for Denver and Carolina has brought in a former Browns disciple Scherer for an interview. Scherer has coached offense or quarterbacks in about eight different college’s each time being offered a position (not fired). Most recently he was developing Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Most detractors will point to Andersons regular season failures as reasons why he shouldn’t be hired, but consider this.

He’s made his career of working with young talent at the QB position and it seems that the Panthers are looking, somewhere for Delhomme’s replacement. Moore is on the roster and like Anderson, who’s had some success, was just a big bodied preseason nobody before he burst onto the scene for Cleveland. With the Browns likely looking to deal Anderson with Quinn healthy and Delhomme being 34 with such a bad last few years. While I doubt the time is now for a quarterback change, it has to come within the next year or two. A QB coach used to developing young talent is the smart hire here.

2) Tim Lewis managed to finally get the Panthers secondary playing well in Trgovac’s complicated zone scheme. For those who don’t know, Trgovac uses a lot of zone with free running linebackers and four man pressure schemes to bend and not break. This has lead to a lot of three an outs for opposing offenses, but also a lot of issues in the past. This year at least the Panthers had a reliable secondary bolstered with young talent and solid veteran leadership. Lewis will possibly leave to a DC position depending on what happens in Green bay and the coaching Carousel which might leave the Panthers without a secondary coach, or a defensive coordinator (should the team fire Trgovac)

3) Herman Edwards is quite possibly on his way out of Kansas City and with most of the team’s looking for head coaches seemingly all locked into young coordinators of some description John Fox could give his buddy a call with a job offer. Edwards is still considered an excellent coach and it’ll be unfortunate if Pioli and the chiefs ownership decide to turf Edwards who to date has done a pretty decent job with a young roster in Kansas City but it would be to Carolina’s benefit if Edwards wanted less pressure for a year or two.

4) Carolina is in major need of aid at the defensive line position. The Defensive tackles need some depth, or better yet a third starter to rotate in and out and keep everyone fresh. The defensive end position should be aided by the further development of Charles Johnson, who’s really becoming an excellent pass rusher and Hilee Taylor who showed some flashes of excellence as a rookie. However, neither player realistically projects as full time starters and realistically the Panthers need a veteran end on the right side to help anchor the line.

The linebackers are good enough to make plays if the line can simply occupy, and with the youngsters there just might be enough talent to get away with rotating in rushing personnel and disguising blitz packages, realistically though the Panthers could feasibly not miss Peppers if they signed Terrell Suggs and I’m sure he wouldn’t mind getting some of the sweet money Pep’ has turned his nose up at.

[Cyberjag]

I kind of agree with all that you're saying here, but I am thinking Trgovac has a 50% chance at getting the axe next week. It's not that he's as poor a coordinator as many people here seem to think--he's actually pretty decent. I think though, that the organization may want a change there and since Peppers is leaving anyway the timing will be good. Based on the talent of our defense, we probably need a scheme that starts with the linebackers instead of the line.

You missed Landon Johnson--no way does he make the active roster next year at his price tag.

I don't like the Herman Edwards scenario. I would rather see an up-and-coming unknown defensive mind get a shot.

[countryboi]

I kind of agree with all that you're saying here, but I am thinking Trgovac has a 50% chance at getting the axe next week. It's not that he's as poor a coordinator as many people here seem to think--he's actually pretty decent. I think though, that the organization may want a change there and since Peppers is leaving anyway the timing will be good. Based on the talent of our defense, we probably need a scheme that starts with the linebackers instead of the line.

You missed Landon Johnson--no way does he make the active roster next year at his price tag.

I don't like the Herman Edwards scenario. I would rather see an up-and-coming unknown defensive mind get a shot.

yea i was going to say you missed Landon Johnson too but i think for the most part he was so ass that its no doubt that he will be cut..as for the Herman Edwards scenario I like it Trgo was a up and coming guy right now i think its time to give someone who knows what they are doing a shot

[Carolina Crazy V2]

Why don't we put on the no salaray cap option. It'd make this a lot simpler.

:thumbsup:

[photoguync]

Well, that was a well thought out, well researched post. I'm not used to that on the boards. Stop messin with my head!

[Carolina Crazy V2]

Well, that was a well thought out, well researched post. I'm not used to that on the boards. Stop messin with my head!

Hah :iagree:

[scpanther22]

i dont think DJ Hackett is leaving he still has potential..just get him off special teams

and another thing to look at is the WR we have 2 coming back from ir

[Munkey]

i dont think DJ Hackett is leaving he still has potential..just get him off special teams

and another thing to look at is the WR we have 2 coming back from ir

I think Jarrett coming into his own on the few palys he is in on, its prety obvious we wont need Hackett. We can just get some 7th round WR do the same job he has done for us.

[rubberpantz]

Blindsite... as usual, a well thought out, lucid breakdown of the Panthers' current situation. "rep" to you.

you might want to look at replacing Yasinskas...and since you're a young guy, they could pay you a lot less too. (just to start with)

[Mr. Scot]

Pretty good analysis.

The way I understand it, at some point the cap will be calculated based only on the top 51 salaries. It's just not feasible to ask a team to fit 80 salaries under the same cap normally used for 60 or so. Not sure whether Yasinskas cap analysis takes that into account.

As far as the waiting on DC, it'll likely be too late to get Dave McGinnis. Sean McDermott isn't going to be available until the Eagles have time off, but hecould be a hot commodity. And of course, Herman Edwards isn't technically out of a job (yet).

[BlindSite]

I'd keep an eye on Jim Haslett too. He hasn't had a lot of pieces in St Louis but he's got some development out of their young talent.

New HC is about to arrive in SL and its unknown as to whether or not haslett is being kept.

[Mr. Scot]

I'd keep an eye on Jim Haslett too. He hasn't had a lot of pieces in St Louis but he's got some development out of their young talent.

New HC is about to arrive in SL and its unknown as to whether or not haslett is being kept.

That one can't happen, at least not per our old buddy Dawg. He says Haslett hates Fox's guts. No idea if it's mutual, but that doesn't have the makings of a good work environment.

(some prior bad experience between the two of them)

[rayzor]

excellent job again, blindsite.

one thing that is baffling me is in training camp all the D players were amazingly happy with the simplifying that trgo did with the playbook and they were learning things and talking about how they loved it because it allowed them to just play.

it did really well, too, as we had that dominate defense we had been historically known for.

when they came out of the bye week and fell apart, did trgo bring back in the complicated playbook? i just wonder if they changed things up and made unnecessary adjustments to the scheme that the players couldn't handle or enjoy.