Hurricane Earl

[Brakos]

Thought this should be posted, given how many people on this board reside in the Carolinas.

Hurricane Earl is currently poised to impact the northern Antilles, already bringing heavy rain bands to the region. Winds are currently clocked in Earl at 85 mph in this category 1 storm, but rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 hours, spinning Earl into a major hurricane, likely a high cat-3 or cat-4 hurricane before turning northward. The two major variables playing into Earl's path are a trough of low pressure expected to move over the eastern seaboard Thu and Fri, and Invest 97L (expected to become Fiona). If the trough is delayed or weakened, the steering forces will be weaker, and will invite Earl to make landfall. Also, Earl and the trailing system may interact in an event called the Fujiwhara Effect. In many cases with two close systems, they will begin to rotate around each other, which a) is very hard to predict, and can cause erratic movement for both storms. I've listed potential impact locations for Earl on the U.S. at the bottom of the post. Interests from North Carolina northwards should pay close attention to Hurricane Earl until the storm has passed by your location.

In other areas of the Atlantic, Danielle has spared Bermuda, and is turning extra-tropical over the north Atlantic. The system behind Earl, currently designated Invest 97L, is still expected to obtain tropical depression status in the next 24 hours.

Potential Impacts from Hurricane Earl at given U.S. locations:

Puerto Rico: Moderate to heavy rain bands, 30-50 mph winds, low potential for landslides, moderate lowland flooding potential.

SE U.S. coast south of SC/NC border: Heavy surf and deadly rip currents starting Tues AM in FL and Tues PM into Wed GA and SC, diminishing by Fri. Light rain bands possible. Winds below 35 mph, except in northern SC, where winds may reach 45-50 mph.

Outer Banks and NC Coast: Potential of Landfall Thu as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. Low chance (<10%) hurricane-force winds, Low chance (10-20%) 55 mph winds, moderate chance (30-40%) tropical storm-force winds. Heavy surf and deadly rip currents starting Wed, possible storm surge to 10' on unprotected beaches Thu and Fri. Heavy rain bands across all of E. N Carolina Thu and Fri.

VA/DE/NJ Coasts: Unlikely to suffer direct impact from Earl. Low chance (<10%) hurricane winds, Low chance (10-20%) 55 mph winds, Low to Moderate chance (25-30%) tropical storm-force winds. Heavy surf and deadly rip currents starting Wed night, possible storm surge to 7' Fri. Moderate to heavy rain bands pushing inland Fri.

Long Island (NY) and southern New England: Potential of Landfall Fri night or Sat as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Wind forecasts do not go out past 120 hours. Heavy surf and deadly rip currents will begin early Fri, storm surge up to (10-15' S. Long Island and Cape Cod, 6-10' elsewhere) Fri or Sat, heavy winds and rain Fri thru Sun.

I'll be posting important updates as they become available, at minimum once or twice a day.

[Jangler]

Will be puking all over the place.

[jasonluckydog]

Wont hit here so I'm good.

[Hawk]

yup...me too!!!!!

[EMSMedic79]

We are gearing up for it here at work. The Emergency Management people are already making plans. As for me, I hope it stays off shore. I'm actually looking forward to my labor day weekend.

[Wither]

Time to get in my boat and row off shore a bit. It's going to be a hell of a ride.

[Brakos]

Hurricane Earl continues to strengthen, currently a category 3 hurricane with winds topping out at 125 mph. Heavy rain bands, along with hurricane-force winds, are pounding the northern Antilles and Puerto Rico right now, as this system begins its northerly turn. Earl is expected to intensify into a category 4 hurricane over the next 12 hours as it treks north and west. Impact along the Outer Banks is slightly more likely within the next 3 days, and Long Island and New England in 4-5 days. Both of these areas have the greatest potential of seeing hurricane-force winds. The rest of the coastal northeast U.S. and the southeast Canadian coast should be prepared for 40-60 mph winds, heavy rains, along with inland and coastal flooding. Until the intensity and timing of the trough sitting over the Great Lakes is determined, it will be difficult to pinpoint any single location for an impact.

In the rest of the Atlantic, Danielle has turned extra-tropical, and the system behind Earl has still not been classified, although it seems likely that it will be designated Tropical Storm Fiona within 12 hours.

Hurricane Earl long-term threats to the U.S.:

SE U.S. coast south of SC/NC border: Heavy surf and deadly rip currents starting tomorrow in FL and overnight tomorrow night in GA and SC, diminishing by Fri. Light rain bands possible. Winds below 35 mph except in northern SC, where winds may peak to 50 mph.

Outer Banks (NC): Potential of Landfall Thu as a Category 3 hurricane. Low chance (10%) hurricane-force winds, Low to moderate chance (20-30%) 55 mph winds, moderate chance (40-50%) tropical storm-force winds. Heavy surf and deadly rip currents starting Wed, possible storm surge to 10' Thu and Fri. Heavy rain bands across all of E. N Carolina Wed night into Fri.

VA/DE/NJ Coasts: Unlikely to suffer direct impact from Earl. Low chance (<10%) hurricane winds, Low chance (10-20%) 55 mph winds, Moderate chance (30-40%) tropical storm-force winds. Heavy surf and deadly rip currents starting Wed night, possible storm surge to 8' Fri along unprotected coastline. Moderate to heavy rain bands pushing inland Thu night into Fri.

Long Island (NY) and southern New England: Potential of Landfall Friday as a Category 2 hurricane. Through 120 hours: Low chance (10-20%) hurricane-force winds, Low to Moderate chance (20-30%) 55 mph winds, Moderate chance (30-40%) tropical storm-force winds. Heavy surf and deadly rip currents will begin early Fri, storm surge up to (10-15' S. Long Island and Cape Cod, 6-10' elsewhere) Fri or Sat, heavy winds and rain Fri thru Sun.