STATS! and predictability.

[Razeyfingers]

I was reading one of South Narolina's posts about how pre-season actually does kind of point to success statistically and got to wondering about the opposite. In what cases are a team's success unpredictable based on the outcome of pre-season?

Im not really sure where to start with that so I was wondering if anyone would have ideas on it. I dont want to start out guessing and the answer would require a chitload of more knowledge about the recent history of each team than I have.

[thunderraiden]

well, for starters, the lions went 4 and 0 in the preseason two years ago.... they went on to have a 0-16 record. Colts regularly have terrible preseason records, and we see what happens with them every regular season.

[Razeyfingers]

hmm yeah I can already see that this isnt likely to go anywhere since there are way too many variables. Does the coach like to overwork or underwork his team, did someone not show up in preseason but beasted out in the regular season, etc. .

there probably too many things to consider, oh well sorry for the dead space.

[Chaos]

The pattern is that there is no pattern. Some winning teams win in preseason while some do not - contrary to that, some perennial losers win preseason games (the ultimate false hope for a desperate fan base). It's crazy I tell ya.

[SorthNarolina]

wins aren't what I ever looked at because there can be up to 4 different starting line-ups. What I looked at were statistical rankings like rushing D or passing offense. Stuff like that.

I haven't looked into it deeply, I just messed around with excel using scatterplots and trendlines for the charts.

I guess what it would say that good teams have good coaches, so all the units play well. Also, good teams have good depth. If a team is performing well during the pre-season then I think it's rational to expect a good year.

[pstall]

I'm not a fan of stats or data

[SorthNarolina]

I'm not of fan of stats/data over direct observations but they are helpful when used together.

[Jackofalltrades]

well, for starters, the lions went 4 and 0 in the preseason two years ago.... they went on to have a 0-16 record. Colts regularly have terrible preseason records, and we see what happens with them every regular season.

I believe that same year the Colts went 0-4 in preseason and finally won the Lombardi.

[HPPantherzfan]

The thing is, as I kinda pointed to in another post...MOST team, besides the Colts, carry momentum from preseason into the regular season...If you look back statistically teams that finished 1-3 or 2-2 do better than the rest of the league.

For the most part, excluding the Colts, teams that go 1-1 or 2-0 in the second and third games during preseason fair better in the regular season...but don't tell anyone on these forums that! After reading how unimportant preseason his by so many people here, including Zod, I'm starting to wonder why head coaches play their starters at all...apparently they missed the memo that "preseason means squat" as well :confused:

[marcopolo]

Its not about points and the final score, its about production. If you look Drew Brees just got his first TD this year, last night. However, he has had only 23 attempts completing well over half of his passes.

[Future of the Funchise]

I'm not a fan of stats or data

right on brother. faith powers activate.

[HPPantherzfan]

Its not about points and the final score, its about production. If you look Drew Brees just got his first TD this year, last night. However, he has had only 23 attempts completing well over half of his passes.

Good point

[Woodie]

How many games are won in the 4th quarter during the regular season? That's something that is not measured in the pre-season. Many teams play a solid game for 2-3 quarters, but fold in the 4th, just as many teams just hang aroung for 3 quarters, then take over the game in the fourth.

The point being that the pre-season is pretty much a useless indicator of success during the regular season. The biggest reason for the pre-season is to let vets work out their kinks and get back in football mode, along with establishing/developing depth. You rarely see vets play to the level they will in the regular season. They are just trying to get ready without getting injured.

[pantherfan81]

All I know is if the D looks great again tonight, then my glass is half full. Offense will come along, but ST???? Let's hope they figure that out REAL SOON. Season is just a couple weeks away....