Panthers Top 15 Paid Players at Position

[jb2288]

6 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Here is are the current players on our team that have a top 15 AAV(per OTC) in their position group. Specialists were not included, as they rarely occupy much actual cap space.

Damien Lewis: 8th LG

Chuba Hubbard: 11th RB

Robert Hunt: 3rd RG

Taylor Moton: 10th RT

Derrick Brown: 6th IDL

Jaycee Horn: 1st CB

Trevon Moehrig: 5th S

Im good with everything but S considering  Jaycee won’t even be top 5 in a year

[jayboogieman]

1 hour ago, Loyalty4Life said:

Not a top 10 QB?  You can't see me face palming but I am.

Here are some metrics.

Low target rate.  In fact, it's elite.  QB's don't like to test him.
Elite Passer rating when he is targeted.
Elite completion % allowed.
Elite in yards allowed after catch.
Elite at forced incompletions.
Great against the run.

In 2022 he was #1 in more than a few of these areas and top 3 in a bunch more.

He rated at the very tippy top as an athlete.  9.99 on the relative athletic score.


 

How much of this is Horn being elite vs the rest of the DBs sharing the field with him being trash tier? If you're the opposing QB, would you rather try the guy that's at least average or the guys that you know are well below average?

[CRA]

1 hour ago, BullCityP said:

You do know he was selected to the Probowl this season right? So all the voters had a concensus opinion that's he's top 10 corner unless they carried 10 corners on the roster I don’t know about lol

So….2024 he was a top 10 corner? I concede he made the Pro Bowl.  Which is a fan and then player popularity contest.   Top players at their position often don’t make it and we often see guys who aren’t make it.  That’s what the Pro Bowl is. 

Statistically he wasn’t in 2024 by old metrics. Nor did he rank as such by the newer metrics and methods out there. 

And the ONE game to my knowledge he largely matched up all game with their opponents lead WR….a washed Nuk Hopkins won the day 

[kungfoodude]

5 hours ago, BullCityP said:

Ooohhhh that's how you evaluate players going by "the metrics" from a bunch of computer nerds like PFF telling you how good a player is? Lol there isn't 10 CB's in the NFL you can name that are better than Horn I don't care WHAT metric you go by!!

So basically no matter the statistic(opposing QB Rating for instance), it just doesn't matter? In your mind and heart, he is the best ever?

That seems healthy and logical.

[csx]

Maybe they should hire Dave Ramsey to manage the cap.

[kungfoodude]

3 hours ago, CRA said:

So….2024 he was a top 10 corner? I concede he made the Pro Bowl.  Which is a fan and then player popularity contest.   Top players at their position often don’t make it and we often see guys who aren’t make it.  That’s what the Pro Bowl is. 

Statistically he wasn’t in 2024 by old metrics. Nor did he rank as such by the newer metrics and methods out there. 

And the ONE game to my knowledge he largely matched up all game with their opponents lead WR….a washed Nuk Hopkins won the day 

I am trying to avoid laying out the statistical evidence of him not producing as a top 10 CB because I like him and I don't want to launch an attack on one of our better players. But, make no mistake, there is almost no realistic statistical argument to be made for his inclusion as a top 10 corner.

I honestly didn't think this was a controversial take at all. 

[Icege]

8 hours ago, CRA said:

So….2024 he was a top 10 corner? I concede he made the Pro Bowl.  Which is a fan and then player popularity contest.   Top players at their position often don’t make it and we often see guys who aren’t make it.  That’s what the Pro Bowl is. 

Statistically he wasn’t in 2024 by old metrics. Nor did he rank as such by the newer metrics and methods out there. 

And the ONE game to my knowledge he largely matched up all game with their opponents lead WR….a washed Nuk Hopkins won the day 

He was a top CB. Other NFL CBs agree that he is a top guy.

His stats last season were due to the team running zone a LOT. This was likely due to losing DB + Shaq + Wonnum to at the start of the season and trying to bend but not break. This meant that Jaycee would more or less lock down his third of the field instead of the team's opposing WR1.

I just watched all 37 of his pass defense snaps vs. KC because insomnia is real and can definitively say that not only was he in zone most of the time, he also did not lose the day to Nuk. I'm not sure who is telling you that, but they're wrong. Of those 37 snaps, Jaycee was targeted just seven times. These were the four to DHop with Horn in coverage:

• 12yds on an out route vs. cover 6 blitz with Jaycee being one of the deep cover-4 guys.
  
   
• 8yds on a curl route vs. cover 6. Jaycee immediately secured the tackle.
  
   
• 5yds on a curl route vs. cover 1 with Jaycee immediately securing the tackle again.
  
   
• 7yds on a rub route where JuJu picks Jaycee pretty good. Josey is fortunately right there for the stop.
  

So... yea... just four plays with one being a rub route, one being a 5yd gain vs. man, and two underneath routes vs. Jaycee having to drop into deep coverage. I wouldn't exactly call that losing the day.

Btw, the other plays where Jaycee was targeted:

• Flat defender in Cover 2 zone. JuJu drops it setting into the soft spot between Jaycee and Trevin.
• 6yds to Worthy on a curl route vs. man coverage.
• Stopped Noah Gray over the middle for 7yds while trailing a different player.

Edited 16 hours ago by Icege

[csx]

10 hours ago, CRA said:

So….2024 he was a top 10 corner? I concede he made the Pro Bowl.  Which is a fan and then player popularity contest.   Top players at their position often don’t make it and we often see guys who aren’t make it.  That’s what the Pro Bowl is. 

Statistically he wasn’t in 2024 by old metrics. Nor did he rank as such by the newer metrics and methods out there. 

And the ONE game to my knowledge he largely matched up all game with their opponents lead WR….a washed Nuk Hopkins won the day 

He was nowhere on the radar after the fan voting and made it solely on player voting.

That says everything. 

What else do you want to go by? 

[Ghostofdelhomme]

Didn’t the Eagles just release someone better than JC?

[WhoKnows]

21 hours ago, CanadianCat said:

Im mean sure you can be smug about your answer, but you are only getting maybe a 2nd for him. Now you need to completely rebuild the entire secondary on top of the d-line. Yeah that sounds great. 

Were you completely missing when the Rams offered us 2 1sts and a 2nd for Burns? If we wouldn’t trade him for that, then he better have a signed extension in hand. We flubbed it twice, once for not getting that haul and once for not even having Burns already extended before having to trade him. We waited until after Bosa signed and after the Redskins have Sweat away for peanuts.

Rams got Steve Avila (starting G), Jared Verse (nice Burns replacement) and still have their 2025 1st. We could have replaced Burns, had a young starting guard and @ $40M in cap instead of Lewis and had another 1st in a deep DL draft. Those of us who wanted the trade have every right to be smug.

[MHS831]

23 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, the Horn deal is bananas. He is genuinely not a top 10 player at his position, even when healthy. They are paying him for future performance and, TBH, I don't see it going well.

Let's hope we are all wrong and he uses it as motivation to be the best.

Moehrig is an interesting one. He is really going to have to play well to justify that, IMO.

About the Horn deal.  I think it was more of a desperation move/statement to the team more than anything else. After letting Burns and CMC walk, developing a core that was drafted and who would be valued by the team was important.  We have Moton, Brown, and now Horn.  Furthermore, he could not lose any player when he had so many holes to fill in the secondary.  I do not like the contract and this is my best attempt to understand it, but if they feel he can stay healthy and will be elite, I guess so.  Morgan is trying to build a core foundation of youth.  Was Horn worth $25m when compared to the rest of the NFL?  No.  Was he worth it to the Panthers for specific reasons?  Apparently.

However, bad teams overpay because they have a complex.   I would rather invest in an edge and spend less at CB.

Edited 8 hours ago by MHS831

[mrcompletely11]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

About the Horn deal.  I think it was more of a desperation move/statement to the team more than anything else. After letting Burns and CMC walk, developing a core that was drafted and who would be valued by the team was important.  We have Moton, Brown, and now Horn.  Furthermore, he could not lose any player when he had so many holes to fill in the secondary.  I do not like the contract and this is my best attempt to understand it, but if they feel he can stay healthy and will be elite, I guess so.  Morgan is trying to build a core foundation of youth.  Was Horn worth $25m when compared to the rest of the NFL?  No.  Was he worth it to the Panthers for specific reasons?  Apparently.

However, bad teams overpay because they have a complex.   I would rather invest in an edge and spend less at CB.

Per kaye, they had be negotiating since Oct, the panthers wanted to pay him roughly 20mil per and he wanted to be paid as a top ranked corner.  I suspect as this drug out and the cap unexpectedly went up Morgan/tillis knew that they had no option but to simply pay him.  I really cant fault morgan because he really had no choice, Horn had all of the leverage

[BullCityP]

15 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

So basically no matter the statistic(opposing QB Rating for instance), it just doesn't matter? In your mind and heart, he is the best ever?

That seems healthy and logical.

Sorry was at the game watching my Blue Devils win! What did our pass rush rank in the metrics?

[PNW_PantherMan]

15 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I am trying to avoid laying out the statistical evidence of him not producing as a top 10 CB because I like him and I don't want to launch an attack on one of our better players. But, make no mistake, there is almost no realistic statistical argument to be made for his inclusion as a top 10 corner.

I honestly didn't think this was a controversial take at all. 

Only people who think this was a good deal is Dan Morgan and the Panthers fan club.  We look stupid.