Anyone Seen the ESPN Projection Guide? *Spoiler* Panthers Suck

[Waldo]

25 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

I'm not so sure it's lazy as they did the entire NFL, not just the Panthers.  Was there some bias in the input? Probably, but running statistical analysis isn't inherently biased.  I'm not going to dig into their methods for creating all this data, but I'm confident this report wasn't done by homer Falcons and Saints fans...that's to say they had malice towards the Panthers regarding the less than flattering projection for our team in 2025.

They didn't even take out Brooks which is lazy. I have no problem with stats or analysis. The data has to be solid and I'm being lazy assuming there are more discrepancies if they missed that.

It's also a weird time to run it with freeeagency and the draft not being finished. I didn't mean to imply the idea is bad, just a weird time to roll it out with some obvious discrepancies included.

[L-TownCat]

1 hour ago, 45catfan said:

I get it, but they are not doom and gloom for all teams.  Some teams have rosy projections.

Let me guess… are they large market/popular teams?

[45catfan]

3 minutes ago, L-TownCat said:

Let me guess… are they large market/popular teams?

The Jags have 8 wins and the Giants 4. So no, that is not the case entirely.

[L-TownCat]

1 minute ago, 45catfan said:

The Jags have 8 wins and the Giants 4. So no, that is not the case entirely.

Talking about the teams who got the rosy projections.

[Joe Bear]

Sports Illustrated picked the Panthers to finish last in the NFC South in 2003 and 2015.

The Panthers went to the Super Bowl both years. 

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, L-TownCat said:

Talking about the teams who got the rosy projections.

Got it, but the Jags are a small market and have a decent amount of wins and NY is the largest market and have the worst projected record in the NFL.  Simply pointing out your over simplification of this data is off the mark.  I think the Jets have 6 wins, the other NY team. Chicago is 7 wins.  Chargers 8.  Big markets with less than lofty predictions. Yes, perennial favorites are still high, but they are consistently good for a reason. 

[45catfan]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bear said:

Sports Illustrated picked the Panthers to finish last in the NFC South in 2003 and 2015.

The Panthers went to the Super Bowl both years. 

Aren't they out of business?  If so, no wonder.

[thunderraiden]

This looks like its looking at our current roster which is missing a defense sans Horn and Brown. After the FA and draft lets see what it looks like.

[hepcat]

If the defense improves with similar results on offense from 2024, this is a 8-9 win team. If Bryce takes another step forward it’s a playoff team. That’s IF the defense improves. They’ve made a huge investment in defense so here’s hoping it works out. 

[ImfromClayton]

I'm not excusing this, but we have got to be one of the harder teams to forecast in the league. We had days last year where we looked like one of the worst teams in the history of the league. We also nearly beat the two super bowl participants. 

Bryce playing like a top 5 quarterback is not something we can depend on, but we can all hope for it. Would be hard for the defense to get worse. 

[csx]

On 3/10/2025 at 11:12 PM, 45catfan said:

Team by team projections and as much stats as any numbers nerd could ever dream of.  Scroll to the Panthers and *woof* they think more highly of a steaming pile of elephant dung.  Statistically an underdog in EVERY game and no better than 6 wins.

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/25/NFLDK2025_CS_ClayProjections2025.pdf

It's been updated post 2 days of FA.

Rather pointless projections at this time of year.

[csx]

On 3/11/2025 at 12:57 AM, 45catfan said:

Aren't they out of business?  If so, no wonder.

No

[mrcompletely11]

On 3/10/2025 at 11:12 AM, 45catfan said:

Team by team projections and as much stats as any numbers nerd could ever dream of.  Scroll to the Panthers and *woof* they think more highly of a steaming pile of elephant dung.  Statistically an underdog in EVERY game and no better than 6 wins.

https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/25/NFLDK2025_CS_ClayProjections2025.pdf

I think after this round of Free Agency our vegas win total should be about 8-8.5.   No reason we shouldnt break that number in 2025.   A part of me wonders if heads will roll if we come in around 5 or less this year?

Edited 3 hours ago by mrcompletely11

[Khyber53]

Must be worried he's going to get a Musk e-mail asking what he's done during the last week. That's how we get this crap turned out at the very, very beginning of free agency and before the draft and training camp.

Gotta show some work, get something to post and keep justifying paychecks.

That being said, we all gobble this stuff up knowing that it's just fluff. So, just enjoy it for the cotton candy it is.