The 3-4 and the implications of the Panthers switching to it.

[Fiz]

There is a lot of talk right now about switching to a 3-4 defense, whether with the current coaching staff or as part of a transition to bill cowher. I think that's very infeasible, and this thread is about those reasons.

Firstly, the defensive line. In a 3-4 defense, you use three down players to, in theory, lock up five offensive linemen. You need a massive NT who can occupy two blockers as well as create penetration. You need two at least 1 DE who can occupy two blockers from size or their ability to penetrate. The Panthers don't have this at all.

If you look at the best 3-4 defenses over the past few years, you'll notice a couple of things they have in common. The first is that they all have a stud NT. Baltimore's Haloti Ngata is one of the best players in the league no one talks about, PJ Williams in San Diego is still one of the best, Vince Wilfork is probably New England's best defensive player, and Casey Hampton is an absolute stud, and the Steelers defense has typically gone to poo without him. Until his weight issues caught up with him this year, Jenkins was excelling at the position and was the main reason the Jets had such early defensive success.

The Panthers have Kemoeatu, who has the size, but cannot penetrate at all. A good NT frees up the linebackers to make plays. Ray Lewis wanted Kemo out of baltimore because he couldn't do that. On passing downs, they only needed to single team him because he couldn't penetrate. Even now teams are content with just sticking a guard on Kemo. We'd almost certainly need a replacement there, and there simply aren't any FA NTs on the market this year.

Likewise, DE isn't a position the Panthers have the talent at to make the switch. Damione Lewis is ideally a tampa-2 DT: quick, fast, and good in quick spurts. He's be manhandled. Tyler Brayton has shown he's good at the 4-3 end, and switching him back would be incredibly counterproductive. There are some good 3-4 DEs on the FA market this year (Olshanksky, Canty) but they wouldn't be cheap.

At linebacker, the Panthers have a lot of talent. Ideally you would probably start Conner at ILB besides Beason, move Davis to the outside in a Jerome Harrison mold, and try to stick someone at the other OLB position, assuming Peppers leaves in FA or via trade. However, Davis has already played 4 positions in his tenure year (Safety, Joker, SLB, WLB) and really seemed to find his niche this year. Would you really want to throw those gains away and make him learn ANOTHER position?

Just because players are good and athletic doesn't mean they'll make the transition. Charles Johnson has worked very hard at becoming a good 4-3 DE, and who knows if he could become a 3-4 OLB. Vernon Gholston is a good example of an incredibly gifted athlete that couldn't make the transition.

On top of that, there are major concerns of what the switch would do to our best player, Jon Beason. To give two examples, Vilma was absolutely wasted in the 3-4, after winning rookie of the year. He became so expendable that the Jets traded him just to end the distraction. On the other hand, Ray Lewis openly complained about having to play in the middle of a 4-3. It severely limited play making abilities.

I personally think Beason could make the transition, though I wouldn't want to make that bet unless he was confident as well. Conner was born to be an ILB, but you don't really want to have to depend on a 2nd year rookie, essentially. I think used correctly Davis could be a disastrous force at OLB, but it still would leave us needing another.

Corner we're fine.

Safety is interesting. Chris Harris would be a monster if he was able to blitz, but you could only do that if you had the accompanying free safety to hold the fort, so to speak. Baltimore and Pittsburgh both have the best safeties in the game. They're able to not only come up in run support but can play the entire field. Ken Hamlin was amazing last year during Dallas' big run. The Patriots were best back when Rodney Harrison could still move. The eagles have dawkins and they definitely employ a hybrid 3-4. One of the biggest drop offs for the Chargers is no reliable safety, one of the reasons they lost to the Patriots in 2006.

While I think Godfrey has all the potential to be that good, would you really want to risk handing the entire backfield to a second year player, especially one that had numerous coverage breakdowns during the year? If you tried and failed, you'd essentially be wasting two players.

The most important thing is that you switch to a 3-4 because you have a creative defensive coordinator that has ideas on how to confuse defenses. I don't think anyone would ever confuse the Panthers coaches with creative, so it would almost certainly require a lot of blood from the top down.

in conclusion, I don't think the Panthers are perfectly suited for the scheme fox wants to run, as I've made very clear in another thread, but we're certainly closer to that then we are to a 3-4. The transition would require numerous new players and would almost certainly be a 2-3 year transition period, as well as jeopardizing the development of talent that's already in place.

[Blue42]

Seriously, why do so many fans think that it's just so easy to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4? You've made a lot of good points here. On the Falcons board there are a lot who think it can be done by switching out just a couple of players as well in a single offseason.

[bigdog_10_2002]

nicely done Fiz. Very good write up

[Kurb]

GJ

[zebrainz]

The proof is in the pudding. Remind me again how many years (and coaching staffs) it took to switch to the 4-3 from the 3-4? Not only does it require all the player changes Fiz listed, but don't kid yourselves, a completely new defensive coaching staff would be required. If the wrong choices are made for the coaching staff (see Panther History, Seifert), the transition takes even longer. What was it? 3, 4 years before Fox finally fielded a semi effective 4-3 in '02?

[Blade]

It would be tough doing it over one off-season and perfecting it.

I'm all for it if it'll improve us, though.

[Randyfloyd]

Dude, it's not rocket science....you just switch the numbers. 3-4, 4-3...they both add up to seven.

Excellent post Fiz. I've always enjoyed the football knowledge on this board that is absent many, many other places.

[Igloo]

Going from a 4-3 to a 3-4 is a few year investment. It is just not feasable to change and have success right away. I love the 3-4 but it takes chemistry and certain types of players to make it work.

[AKPantherFan]

will it give up more than 400 yards a game?

If you havent noticed for the last couple years our 4-3 hasent been all that great.

just sayin......

I dont care what we do, just get better.

[OneBadassCat]

Seriously, why do so many fans think that it's just so easy to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4? You've made a lot of good points here. On the Falcons board there are a lot who think it can be done by switching out just a couple of players as well in a single offseason.

One word... madden.

[RockECU]

will it give up more than 400 yards a game?

If you havent noticed for the last couple years our 4-3 hasent been all that great.

just sayin......

I dont care what we do, just get better.

well put.

[chbright]

so if we have no personel to run it, why do it, just on a whim it might be better? it might not give up 400 yards, it might give up 600 with our secondary, and no one to keap anyone off the lbs. we dont have the pesonel atm deal with it. if you want to take a few more years fine switch, but note if we switch at this time, then it isnt the coaches fault year 1 or likely year 2. there are no fa 3-4 nose tackle, kemo was let go as ray lewis said he wasnt a fit for the 3-4. we have no de with any 3-4 success (brayton), and 1 possible de switch in lewis who has never played it. so with no personel its 2 years atleast till we would even start to see results, but as per huddle mob rules no results = fire everyone, blow it up. if it was fox people would say its still his d, his problem, and call for his head.

fiz covered everything and people still do not get why this isnt a possiblity. we are much more suited to run the 4-3 right now. if you want to go back to growing pains for 2+ years, fine, but i am not thinking we are near that atm. we have a young o-line, young backs, youth at lb and safety. a killer wr, an improving cb in gamble. why throw their years away now? we were close this year, we picked the worst time for a blowup. i am not sold on jake anymore, and never sold on the turd. if we can get a dc worth a damn, maybe they can use lucus an marshal bettrer (still think they are the weakest links). 2nd get a dl coach. seriously tony brown and javon haye leave carolina and turn into something under different teams (tampa and tenn). we have needed an UT, thats what both play, what happened here? could it be senior turd again?

to sum up, switching to the 3-4 will waste our backs, lb group, and OL waiting for the peices top get in, much less work as a unit they are not use too. 2nd we have less holes on d if it really is turd which most agree is problem #1, regardless of if we stay in a 4-3 or switch to a 3-4. 3rd we have had tallent on the line get away, when or dc is a former dl coach, idk, but thats a red flag to something wrong with our dl coaching staff.

[tarheelpride]

when you look at defenses such as pittsburgh, it's easy to say we can switch to the 3-4. you see how aggressve they are and how they're the top defense. EVENTUALLY, it might can work with us. it'll take a few years, different players, and a whole new coaching staff. noting that, do we prepare for the now (4-3) or the future (3-4)? as long as fox is here, his background is 4-3. so it's pointless to try to switch to a 3-4.

[Snake]

Players that would fit the 3-4 are. Lewis,Kemo,Pep(if he stays), Connor,Beason,Davis,Seward,and Taylor. Davis and Taylor have the size to put there hands in the dirt and if Pep stays and thats an if he could be both an inside rusher or outside. Really it might be why we have been drafting 3-4 guys the last two years.