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WhatifSports NFL South Preview...

SnarkAttack

By SnarkAttack,
in Carolina Panthers

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SnarkAttack Newbie

SnarkAttack

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These guys were very, very close to hitting the nail on the head last year and they're saying 11-5 for us this year. Whatever, just reading material to hold you over....

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2010NFL_NFCSouthPreview

Carolina Panthers (WIS Prediction: 11-5)

Absolute Record: 13-3

It's been a busy off-season in Charlotte. Jake Delhomme packed his bags for the bright lights of Cleveland, Ohio. Carolina drafted Jimmy Clausen with their first pick. This automatically makes quarterback Matt Moore's starting role shaky at best. Steve Smith recently broke his arm in a flag football game, creating panic attacks inside Panther nation. Dwayne Jarrett is option number 2. Yikes. The success of Carolina depends on the 1-2 combo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and their Top 10 defense from a year ago.

Two-Headed Monster

D-Will and J-Stew combined for over 2200 yards Most Significant Newcomer: Jimmy Clausen, QB- Clausen is a welcomed sight for Carolina head coach John Fox. Not only is he a viable option at quarterback, but he may deter some of the attention away from the common news story surrounding Fox's job security. Clausen will also force Matt Moore to raise his game to the next level if he indeed wants to keep the starting gig he assumed late last season following Delhomme's meltdown. Clausen's 161.4 QB rating while at Notre Dame is hard to ignore. He threw 28 touchdowns and only four picks his junior season in South Bend. As long as he realizes the need to improve to survive the NFL, he could move into the starting slot sooner rather than down the road.

Biggest Strength: Rushing Offense- Sharing is caring. DeAngelo and J-Stew proved two superstar running backs can co-exist within a line-up. Remember, when you were a kid and mom scooped out some ice cream for you and your sibling? You had to make sure both rations were distributed evenly. Carolina did a great job keeping both boys happy when it came to touches. J-Stew had 221 carried to Williams' 216. Together they rushed for over 2200 yards. Carolina's 156.1 rush yards per game trailed only the Jets and Titans for tops in the NFL. So load up the box because this duo are options 1 and 1a on offense come 2010.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Wide Receivers - Kenny Moore, Charly Martin, Dexter Jackson and Wallace Wright combined for 9 receptions in 2009. These are John Fox's options behind Steve Smith (broken arm) and Dwayne Jarrett (who, by the way, had 17 receptions for 196 yards in 2009). Armanti Edwards, the rookie QB turned WR out of Appalachian State, could get some reps too if the previously mentioned don't find a niche. Jeff King and Dante Rosario will rule the tight end position, but don't expect huge numbers with Moore at QB. He only had one game where he threw for over 200 yards the last five games of last season.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Jimmy Clausen- This could be considered a cop-out, but Clausen wasn't drafted in the 2nd round to hold a clipboard for long. Fantasy sleeper is a tough category to judge down in Carolina because the offense runs through its running backs. Steve Smith is the obvious choice for wide receiving fantasy option and Dwayne Jarrett hasn't showed us anything yet to be drafted ahead of a kicker. Carolina's defense, ranking in the top 5 in interceptions and forced fumbles a year ago, may have been a Fantasy Sleeper had they not lost so much talent.

Closest Game: Week 11 vs Ravens (Avg. Score 20-18 - Panthers)

Fantasy Notables: Matt Moore (13th) 3689 yds, 22 TDs, 7 INTs; DeAngelo Williams (4th) 1435 rush yds, 15 TDs (total); Steve Smith (9th) 1228 rec. yds, 6 TDs; Jeff King (27th) 341 rec. yds, 2 TDs; John Kasay (8th) 27-35 FGs, 42 XPs

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SnarkAttack Newbie

SnarkAttack

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Anyone know what the absolute record is?

Here it is...

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 501 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

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