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Super Bowl favorites


Matt Foley

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AFC - Indy, Chargers, Jets, Ravens (Titans if Young stays healthy, NE wildcards). Indy will come out of this...and Ravens will falter due to banged up D.

NFC - Panthers duh, San Fran, Minny (if Favre returns), Dallas (god help me) (Giants and Packers wildcards)...I think Packers do well in playoffs.

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Wastern thinking is based on the idea that because something happened once, it is proof that it is likely to happen again. For example the idea of a "hot streak" while gambling. We think that because we won a game of roulette it is likely to happen again. And we tend to think that the Super Bowl Winner is probably the prime contender to win next year.

I prefer Eastern thinking, which is based on the idea that something happening once means that is it less likely to happen again. Something happening is the result of several factors that are outside of human control (i.e. the proverbial "injury bug") converging in a very unlikely way to produce an outcome, and that those factors are almost certain to NOT repeat in the same way. After all, in 40 years of Super Bowls, how many times have teams won back to back championships? For that matter, how many times has the top team in the power rankings at the beginning of the year actually made it to the Super Bowl?

So here is my Eastern thinking Super Bowl prediction list:

1. Packers

2. Chargers

3. Texans

4. Ravens

5. Panthers

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These are Super Bowl Contenders, not just plain Playoff Contenders.

Definite AFC Contenders:

Bengals - Finally has all the pieces to have a ridiculous season.

Ravens - Top Defense, and a QB ready to have a breakout season.

Possible AFC Contenders:

Chargers - Still a very very dangerous team. Excellent QB with lots of very good targets and good RBs behind him.

Jets - Best Defense in the league and a high octane running game, along with a decent passing game, make for a dangerous team.

Dolphins - Much MUCH improved over the offseason. They could easily go to the Playoffs and maybe make it to the SB.

Patriots - They could revive one more time before they sputter out after this season.

Colts - Peyton Manning, nuff said. Though the odds are against them, looking at history.

Definite NFC Contenders:

Packers - Has all of the pieces needed for greatness. I will be surprised if they don't make it to the SB.

Cowboys - This team has all of the pieces. Can they execute?

Possible NFC Contenders:

Vikings - If the Ol' Man comes back, and we know he will, they will be just as nasty as last year.

49ers - They will destroy AZ and take their Division. NO questions about it.

Falcons - Been on the verge of greatness for many seasons, but injuries seem to plague this team.

Panthers - VERY difficult team to read. One of the youngest rosters in the league with lots of unproven talent, but all of the necessary parts to make the Playoffs are there. The D-Line will determine the Panthers's season.

Saints - Drew Breesus is a fuging beast, and there's no denying that this is a good team all around. Odds are against them, looking at history.

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1. Jets - anything less than a superbowl will be a letdown with all the big names they got this offseason.

2. Saints- people still think they good.......

3. Cowboys - talent, but we have seen how that has played out in the past for them.

4. Ravens - They got alot of playmaker, but they are being plagued by injuries right now, the first 5 weeks could make it or break it for them.

5. Indianapolis - I suspect they could make another run to the superbowl, barring any huge setbacks, Peyton still got it, and if the D holds up, its gonna be scary.

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Saints won't be there again. Their defense is freaking horrible. They won't get a ton of key takeaways at exactly the right time again this season, too much of that relies on the other teams. I think they'll be back to where they were in '08, 8-8.

But we should be healthier this year, right?

Got this from another forum. Last season:

Jabari Greer missed 8 games

Tracy Porter missed 4 games

Sedrick Ellis missed 5 games

Darren Sharper missed 2 games

Scott Fujita missed 5 games

Heath Evans got hurt week 5, out for season

Our starting LT missed entire season.

The Cowboys have virtually no starters miss ANY time all season and we are the ones with good fortune.

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from Peter King's Monday Morning QB:

Optimism everywhere. Rightfully so. The last three Super Bowl winners, in the year prior to winning it all, won 8, 10 and 8 games. (The Giants, Steelers and Saints managed that trifecta.) That means one of the following teams -- winners of between 8 and 10 games last year -- should feel very, very good entering training camp this week:

1. New England (10 wins).

2. New York Jets (9).

3. Cincinnati (10).

4. Baltimore (9).

5. Pittsburgh (9).

6. Houston (9).

7. Tennessee (8).

8. Denver (8).

9. New York Giants (8).

10. Atlanta (9).

11. Carolina (8).

12. Arizona (10).

13. San Francisco (8).

That's 41 percent of the league with the same shot the past three Super Bowl winners had entering the year they won it.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/07/25/mmqb/index.html#ixzz0v7rNSwQ5
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The Cowboys have virtually no starters miss ANY time all season and we are the ones with good fortune.

Saints had a ton of good fortune. Takeaways are good, I just don't see that many of them, most of which happened at key moments through the course of the season, happening again in '10.

If all the players that were injured off and on last season can gel together for an entire season, I don't know what the Saints will end up with. While I don't see nearly as many takeaways for them, they could prove to be a top 15 overall defense. Or they could prove not to be one.

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