Our OLine = Over Rated?

[Urrymonster]

Pro Football Focus went through all runners who ran than 75 times and determined how often their OLine allowed them to be stuffed for no gain.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/articles.php?tab=articles&arc=&id=163

Now I know a lot of you are not fond of the site, but this is the sort of thing that can't be refuted. They literally recorded every single run and how far it went, so this is not based on made up ratings, it is simple fact.

What was surprising, was that when they released the full details in the forums, Williams and Stewart were towards the bottom of the list, coming in at 50th & 44th respectively out of 65 runners, with a whopping 21.7% combined of runs being stuffed for no gain. What this means, is that our OLine were letting our boys get swarmed before they could reach the LoS once every five rushes.

Combine this with the slightly more subjective article which determined how elusive runners were and both Stewart (2nd in their ratings) and Williams were much much higher in the rankings.

What this seems to suggest, is that our runners were the reason for our success, not our OLine. Now I know that it is pretty obvious that we have two of the top backs in the league, however we also considered ourselves to have one of the top OLines int he NFL as well. This evidence suggests our go to play, is actually not very consistent. However, get our runners to the LoS and they can make things happen, or our downfield blocking is that much better than our initial push. Both backs very rarely hesitate behind the LoS, so very few of these would be down to them.

What is worse, is that our pass blocking was woefully bad at times last year. You can blame it all you want on Delhomme, but this group is renowned for its run blocking. If they are struggling in the area that they supposedly do well, then I can't take all the blame off them for the troubles our QBs faced last year in avoiding pressure.

For those that are interested we had 32 sacks that could be attributed to someone 'giving one up', 28 hits & 97 pressures. That is in 527 drop backs, which equates to our QBs being effected on 29.7% of their drop backs. Moore was effected on a similar ratio to Delhomme, so I am not sure our OLine 'stepped it up' for Moore as much as some would want to believe.

Our OLine is giving up negative or no gain plays on 13.2% of offensive snaps, from both the running and passing game. If you consider the pressures and hits given up, then they are allowing the defence to affect our play makers in 26.1% of plays. That's 1 in 4 that our OLine has a negative impact on our success on offence.

Now on to the ratings. Those who disagree with this part of the site can stop reading and just reflect on what is written above.

According to their ratings (they grade every single play, even ones where they have little impact on the play) Vincent was our worst performing starter. What is more concerning is that Mack, was easily our worst performing player on the OLine. Now, this is obviously not fact, but it is reason to be cautious. We have been talking how Moore and Clausen can come in and play behind a consistent and experienced OLine, however it appears our OLine is FAR from consistent and it could actually develop into a problem for us if the loss of Vincent has a profound effect on the younger guys.

On paper Clausen has walked into an ideal situation, but looking at it in more detail it is clear that our OLine is not what it is dressed up to be. This team has play makers, without those guys, we could see a much more anaemic offensive performance.

By the way, I am positive for this coming season, just thought it was interesting stuff.

[Seal (SmittyIsOurSavior)]

Good find. And I've always thought our O-Line wasn't as good as some made it out to be. I always noticed our guys getting stuffed a lot, and just thought nothing of it when they broke for 50 the next play.

[pantherfan49]

I would buy this except that Sutton toted the rock pretty well last year as well and he certainly isn't in the same class as Stewart and DLo. It is not just the runners.

[SuperLego5]

Personally I think this is more an indication that teams know we are going to run the ball. The LBers are alot closer to the LoS meaning they get there that little bit quicker than against a team like the Colts who are alot more likely to pass so the LBers will sit off the LoS.

[panthers55]

Because we run the ball and often in obvious situations it doesn't surprise me that we have a lot of plays where we are stuffed. And frankly we are not great in pass blocking I think we all can see that. So this is not that surprising to those who follow the line closely. Stilll when you factor in everything I think the line is a top 10 unit. Remember that our passing game was so poor last year for the first half of the season, we ran way too much and were too predictable. I expect the second half of the year was better than the first half.

[Big Ed]

The best O- line No

As bad as this site post No

As with any research its skewed

Not taking into cosideration is the O-line had Jake at QB

A very immobile QB that when passing holds onto the ball longer in hopes of getting it to Smitty

Also defenses keyed on the run more knowing Jake could only throw INTS

What would be interesting while they are evaluating every play ,is to count the number of defenders in the box that are coming ..

I feel with younger more mobile QB's that have a quicker release.

When this groups do their research next season Panthers O-line will grade higher within their standards

[Cyberjag]

Football Outsiders has us at 17th: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Last year we lost Gross for 7 games, and Otah for 3. We were also playing some of the better defenses in the league. That isn't going to help your stats.

The year before, when we were healthy most of the year, we finished 8th.

[Delhommey]

There were games last year where I'm pretty sure Fox/Davidson thought maintaining a balanced offense was running about as many ISO's to the weak side as the strong.

[Cyberjag]

It surprises me that Davidson does that so much. You would think that with his background he would know better. Actually, it doesn't surprise me because I don't think he's very good, but maybe I'm wrong and there's method behind his madness...

[pstall]

Normally I love quantative analysis but ye old job is burning me out on uber detailed study of numbers behind the numbers.

To me the O line might be toughest spot to say over or underrated.

[Ricky Spanish]

did you mean vincent was the best o-line and mack was the worst, or what?

[Urrymonster]

What would be interesting while they are evaluating every play ,is to count the number of defenders in the box that are coming ..

Pretty sure they do that already and I have seen them state that we do not see as many 8 or 9 in the box as people think. More than the average, but certainly nothing out of this world.

They personally didn't state anything about our OLine in the article, more I am combining facts and figures to try to paint a picture.

What it would seem to me is that we don't have a genuinely mauling OLine, one that can get a 2-3 yard push every run play. However we have very good technical blockers, so that when we get it right, we can create huge opportunities for our backs. The negative of these kind of blockers, is that we can get stuffed more often than not.

[Urrymonster]

did you mean vincent was the best o-line and mack was the worst, or what?

Vincent was our worst starting OLine, Mack was the worst overall - including Schwartz etc. Was not me who stated that, that is the grading system they use. So you do not need to take that as fact.

[Lumps]

These numbers don't record certain things such as p55 stated such as crappy play calling and pass blocking just to name two there are a ton of variables that aren't even taken into account and some that are that mean nothing and then some more that matter more than anything but just can't be measured. I don't think it's really possible to break down an O-line performance to be very accurate like stated above.

Regardless I am sure any O line would come off as over rated when there is the 2 great RBs behind them them.