Everyone Pushing to Draft Yet Another WR Early

[Aussie Tank]

7 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

It's not a yes or no question for him, as neither just saying yes or just saying no would be a correct statement.  The correct statement is that it's one of his weaknesses, as he has 3 "weaknesses" to his game, his top end speed, his initial get off at the snap, and his ability to separate on routes.

HOWEVER...........

Saying those are his weaknesses doesn't mean he's bad at any of them, he just isn't elite in those categories compared to the rest of his game, hence why they're "weaknesses" for him.  But again, as I've pointed out many times, not many WRs of his size/style of game are elite in those areas, if they were, they would be the next Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss, and if you don't want a tall WR just because they're not Calvin/Moss, then you expect too much.

He already runs a full NFL route tree at a high level, so once he crisps up some of his cuts (and more it's the post-cut separation than the cut itself) a bit as he gets better, that separation will become even better as well.  It's hard to fix a bad route runner once they're already in the NFL, but getting a great route runner to be quicker into/out of his cuts is pretty standard in the NFL. 

I don't think he'll struggle to get enough separation in this league to be a high end #1 WR, but if you expect him to have a Jefferson or Chase ability to quickly separate, you're going to be disappointed by him in that aspect of his game.

But as I've also said before, everything is a trade off, as maybe he isn't elite in those areas, but his hands, catch radius, and contested catch ability are all off the charts and I think are all better than guys like Jefferson/Chase.  For a QB like Bryce, who doesn't have the huge arm to fully take advantage of a take the top off type of speed WR, his ability to place the ball where he wants would be a perfect combination with T-Mac's catch radius and hands.

T-Mac is a faster but slightly less thick Mike Evans, my comp for T-Mac has always been AJ Green.  I think he will be a better version of Mike Evans (note, I'm not saying he's a surefire HOFer like Evans will be, but as great as Evans is, he's only had 1 or 2 seasons where he truly was a Top 5 WR in the league, his HOF status is more about long term consistency, like Frank Gore).

I'll put it this way, if he had elite speed/quickness/separation, there wouldn't even be a discussion of drafting him as there would be zero chance he'd fall to us, he legit would be in the mix for the #1 pick if that were the case as he'd be a perfect prospect.

If he never improves his speed and separation, I think he ends up in that 15ish best WR in the league every year, but still a true outside #1, to me that's his floor.  If he improves on them, as I think he will, then he has legit Top 5 WR potential and what I expect him to become in this league.

Better than Mike Evans hey your pinning all your credibility on TMac now 

[rebelrouser]

On 2/2/2025 at 3:34 PM, TD alt said:

Best player available. If that's a WR, then it is what it is.

A third year in a row taking a wr who has trouble creating separation? PFF has the best player available for us as the LT from LSU; should we take him?  How about the TE, RB or a QB? The worst defense in the NFL needs some help.  We can get a quality dt, edge, or cb at 8 and could even trade back for some more picks. A team this bad should not have a problem drafting for both quality and need since we need practically everything.

[tukafan21]

Just now, Aussie Tank said:

Better than Mike Evans hey your pinning all your credibility on TMac now 

I'm fine with that, because I genuinely think he will be better than Evans.

AGAIN........

I'm not saying he will have a better career, that comes down to factors you can't predict like health and the team around him for team success.  But I fully expect, if healthy, prime T-Mac will be better than prime Evans.

Evans won't be a HOFer because of how good he was at his peak, but because of how long he was able to play at a high level, he'll get into the HOF because of the consecutive 1k yard seasons.  But he only has 4 seasons in his career of over 1,157 yards and only 6 over 1,051 yards.  If his 5 seasons between 1,001 and 1,051 yards all came up 50 yards less, and thus had 5 less 1,000 seasons, he might ever get into the HOF.

If anything, it's Evans as a red zone threat that has made him a HOF more than his yardage with his 105 TDs, and that's where T-Mac will be even better than Evans because he's more athletic and thus has an even wider catch radius than Evans.

 

[Aussie Tank]

14 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I'm fine with that, because I genuinely think he will be better than Evans.

AGAIN........

I'm not saying he will have a better career, that comes down to factors you can't predict like health and the team around him for team success.  But I fully expect, if healthy, prime T-Mac will be better than prime Evans.

Evans won't be a HOFer because of how good he was at his peak, but because of how long he was able to play at a high level, he'll get into the HOF because of the consecutive 1k yard seasons.  But he only has 4 seasons in his career of over 1,157 yards and only 6 over 1,051 yards.  If his 5 seasons between 1,001 and 1,051 yards all came up 50 yards less, and thus had 5 less 1,000 seasons, he might ever get into the HOF.

If anything, it's Evans as a red zone threat that has made him a HOF more than his yardage with his 105 TDs, and that's where T-Mac will be even better than Evans because he's more athletic and thus has an even wider catch radius than Evans.

 

You can spin it any way you want Evans is one of the best WRs in the last decade 

[tukafan21]

43 minutes ago, Aussie Tank said:

You can spin it any way you want Evans is one of the best WRs in the last decade 

If you look at individual seasons, he's only had a couple where he could have been considered a Top 5, maybe even Top 10 WR, and that's no knock on him.  You have an 11 year career where you have a couple seasons as a Top 5 WR and the rest as a Top 15ish guy, that's a hell of a career and puts you in the HOF, but I can probably easily name at least a dozen WRs over the last decade that I'd take over Evans if talking about a one game/season type of thing.

I'm comparing T-Mac to Evans as a player in a vacuum, where I think he'll be better.  But I'm not saying he'll have the better legacy/career because Evans was more of a very consistent very good WR than really ever a truly elite one.

Case and point, he's a sure fire HOFer, who also has only been a 2nd team all pro twice.  Which means the football writers only saw him and a Top 6 WR twice in his career.  

It's why I pointed out how it would be like comparing an RB to Frank Gore and being able to say they might be a better player, but not necessarily have a HOF career like him because that part is too dependent on other factors like health and longevity, which you can't predict.

[tukafan21]

54 minutes ago, Aussie Tank said:

You can spin it any way you want Evans is one of the best WRs in the last decade 

 

Just now, tukafan21 said:

If you look at individual seasons, he's only had a couple where he could have been considered a Top 5, maybe even Top 10 WR, and that's no knock on him.  You have an 11 year career where you have a couple seasons as a Top 5 WR and the rest as a Top 15ish guy, that's a hell of a career and puts you in the HOF, but I can probably easily name at least a dozen WRs over the last decade that I'd take over Evans if talking about a one game/season type of thing.

I'm comparing T-Mac to Evans as a player in a vacuum, where I think he'll be better.  But I'm not saying he'll have the better legacy/career because Evans was more of a very consistent very good WR than really ever a truly elite one.

Case and point, he's a sure fire HOFer, who also has only been a 2nd team all pro twice.  Which means the football writers only saw him and a Top 6 WR twice in his career.  

It's why I pointed out how it would be like comparing an RB to Frank Gore and being able to say they might be a better player, but not necessarily have a HOF career like him because that part is too dependent on other factors like health and longevity, which you can't predict.

Figured I'd take a shot at what I said here too, in no particular order other than when the pop into my head, all these guys I'd say were better than Evans, even if they don't get into the HOF like him....

Jefferson, Chase, Kupp, Tyreek, Hopkins, Diggs, Lamb, Adams, Julio, Antonio Brown, AJ Brown, Amon Ra, are all guys that I'd 100% take over Evans.  

Then there are a bunch of guys that if we're talking about 1 season or game, I'd be torn on Evans vs others, such as Cooper, DK, Waddle, Puka, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Odell, Hilton and I'm sure there are some others I might not be thinking of in that last decade time frame.

But if I just said, "he's going to be better than Mike Evans" and leave it at that, you know everyone would call me crazy for predicting him to be a HOFer already, I view them as two different things.

Like I said, Evans is a HOFer who was mostly a Top 12-15 type of guy for most of his career, I think T-Mac will spend plenty of years as a unanimous Top 10 guy and be in the Top 5 discussion.  Will he have 10+ year sustained success and team success needed to make the HOF like Evans will, is impossible to predict and I wouldn't try to.

[Aussie Tank]

16 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

 

Figured I'd take a shot at what I said here too, in no particular order other than when the pop into my head, all these guys I'd say were better than Evans, even if they don't get into the HOF like him....

Jefferson, Chase, Kupp, Tyreek, Hopkins, Diggs, Lamb, Adams, Julio, Antonio Brown, AJ Brown, Amon Ra, are all guys that I'd 100% take over Evans.  

Then there are a bunch of guys that if we're talking about 1 season or game, I'd be torn on Evans vs others, such as Cooper, DK, Waddle, Puka, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Odell, Hilton and I'm sure there are some others I might not be thinking of in that last decade time frame.

But if I just said, "he's going to be better than Mike Evans" and leave it at that, you know everyone would call me crazy for predicting him to be a HOFer already, I view them as two different things.

Like I said, Evans is a HOFer who was mostly a Top 12-15 type of guy for most of his career, I think T-Mac will spend plenty of years as a unanimous Top 10 guy and be in the Top 5 discussion.  Will he have 10+ year sustained success and team success needed to make the HOF like Evans will, is impossible to predict and I wouldn't try to.

You and I differ here I'd take Prime Evans over all your bottom tier and half the top 

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, Aussie Tank said:

You and I differ here I'd take Prime Evans over all your bottom tier and half the top 

I'd be very curious who you'd be taking prime Evans over in that first list, especially if you're going their best 1 season, as Evans has never had a multi year dominant streak.  All those guys in that first list have seasons that have easily been better than Evans' best season.

For the 2nd list, I'm not saying I'd take them all over Evans, but none of them I'd take Evans without thinking about it, I think if you're talking peak one season type of thing, they all are comparable to Evans from the last decade.

I know it's not the end all be all, but prime Evans has never even been a 1st team all pro.  The 3rd most yards he's had in a season was 1,255 in a 17 game season.  He only has 2 seasons where he had over 79 catches and never broke 100.  And he's only had 11 missed games in his 11 year career too, not like his stats were held back due to missing a lot of games.

Evans is a great WR, a sure fire HOFer, but even at his peak, he only had a couple seasons of being a Top 10 guy in a given year.

His TD numbers are truly elite, I'll give you that, he's 9th all time, but being an elite red zone target doesn't on it's own make you better than other WRs.  But if that's why you view Evans so highly, then T-Mac with his better catch radius than Evans should be even more attractive as he really is going to be one of the best red zone targets in the league from day 1.  His catch radius and hands are going to be deadly in the end zone for whoever drafts him.

[Aussie Tank]

8 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I'd be very curious who you'd be taking prime Evans over in that first list, especially if you're going their best 1 season, as Evans has never had a multi year dominant streak.  All those guys in that first list have seasons that have easily been better than Evans' best season.

For the 2nd list, I'm not saying I'd take them all over Evans, but none of them I'd take Evans without thinking about it, I think if you're talking peak one season type of thing, they all are comparable to Evans from the last decade.

I know it's not the end all be all, but prime Evans has never even been a 1st team all pro.  The 3rd most yards he's had in a season was 1,255 in a 17 game season.  He only has 2 seasons where he had over 79 catches and never broke 100.  And he's only had 11 missed games in his 11 year career too, not like his stats were held back due to missing a lot of games.

Evans is a great WR, a sure fire HOFer, but even at his peak, he only had a couple seasons of being a Top 10 guy in a given year.

His TD numbers are truly elite, I'll give you that, he's 9th all time, but being an elite red zone target doesn't on it's own make you better than other WRs.  But if that's why you view Evans so highly, then T-Mac with his better catch radius than Evans should be even more attractive as he really is going to be one of the best red zone targets in the league from day 1.  His catch radius and hands are going to be deadly in the end zone for whoever drafts him.

I don't get the peak one season argument. Consistency and availability is massive part of the equation 

[tukafan21]

35 minutes ago, Aussie Tank said:

I don't get the peak one season argument. Consistency and availability is massive part of the equation 

Because this all stemmed from projecting the type of player a draft prospect could become.  It's impossible to project a career/legacy, too many unknown factors

You said Mike Evans was one of the best WRs of the last decade.  I was saying he only is because of the entirety of his career, not because he was ever actually one of the best WRs in the league at any given time.  Mike Evans is not going to be a HOFer because he was an elite WR, it's going to be because he was a very good one for a long time, the same way Gore will be in the HOF.

All those players from the last decade were guys who had peak seasons of being a better player than Evans, but whether health, the QB/team, something else, or still just too young in their career, they couldn't sustain it long enough to have the same career as him, but at one time or another, they were better than Evans.

I'm saying T-Mac is going to be an elite WR, his peak will be better than Evans best season(s), just like those guys I listed.  But I'm not predicting he'll be a HOFer because that's just nonsense to predict of almost any prospect in the NFL.  You need to be a Wemby type of prospect to really be worthy of actually being expected to be a HOF player before you even get drafted.

And it's no knock on Evans or his career.  There is nothing wrong with not ever being one of the best WRs at any time, but being so good for so long that you still get into the HOF.  Combine that with a ring and it's a career that anyone would take coming out from college, even if they aspire to have a better peak.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by tukafan21