HOW 4 QBs Could Go First Round

[MHS831]

Today's headlines have caused me to rethink things, and that is difficult when I rarely think things.  Apparently Dan Orlovsky and others feel that Jaxon Dart is one of the best QBs in this draft.  He knows QBs pretty well, so I am not going to pretend to know more--I really have no clue about evaluating QB talent in college in relation to the NFL. 

"(Career) Dart passed for 10,617 yards and 72 touchdowns over his three seasons with the Rebels. He also rushed for 1,498 yards and 12 touchdowns with Ole Miss."

Had a good week at SR Bowl.  Some talent evaluators in attendance were so impressed, they rate him QB 2.

So this is where it gets interesting. (I get Matt Corral vibes about Kiffin QBs, but this aint coming from me)  Based on pieces of conjecture and rumor I have heard recently, here is my take on the top 10 which would lay the tracks for 4 QBs going in round 1:

• Tennessee will not take a QB first overall, according the Mina Kimes.  They could entertain trade offers because their needs are QB (but not at #1), OL, WR, and defensive front 7.  I predict a trade with the Jets.  I would say Giants, but I GM Schoen is on the hotseat--a trade up with a bad pick could get you Fitterered. Trade:  Jets take Cam Ward.
• Cleveland also needs a QB since Watson can't get his Achilles massaged regularly.  I think they might take Ward if he is there, but many are projecting Sanders to the Browns, probably because they think Ward is going #1.  (talk on the street).  Sanders fits Kevin Stepanski's system, however, so does Will Howard.  Drafting the best player in the draft vs. a QB with a few ??? behind his name at #2?  However, rumors from my brother-in-law who is a chiropractor in Columbus, they could wait and take Ohio State QB Will Howard at 33 if they feel they could get Hunter at pick 2 and Howard at pick 33--both probable.  I am not certain that Sanders will be the better pro than Howard, but I am certain that anyone drafted at 33 will not be better than Hunter.  WR/CB Travis Hunter will be the pick. (note: Cleveland needs a RB too--I could see them taking Sanders and moving back up into round 1 from 33 to draft Ashton Jeanty, RB, as well.  I can see Johnson approving of this to support a young QB behind a solid OL--but I am still going with Hunter/Howard.)
• The Giants will take a QB if one is there at #3, and I do not think Joe Schoen has the balls to take Dart.  Although I am having trouble picturing this, I think Sanders will be a Giant. 
• New England: Most of the Patriot beat writers are suggesting that the Patriots MAYE take Will Campbell, OT LSU.  This is a bit surprising to me, but those who cover the Pats hear stuff.  Out of 8 experts, half selected Campbell.
• Jacksonville could go many ways.  However, secondary is a HUGE need behind OL, and there are no elite OL at #5.  Will Johnson, CB, Michigan would be worth the #5 overall selection and fill that need.
• Vegas Raiders is a good fit for Darnold because the OL is in place.  He could use a WR and they could use an edge on the other side of Mad Maxx Crosby.  I think that is what they do, knowing they can add WRs later.  Pick: Abdul Carter, Edge.
• Tennessee (from Jets):  If I am the GM, I know the Titans need a WR and OL help in addition to QB.  I also have the capital (from the Jets trade) to move back up into round 1.  Unless addressed in free agency, grabbing the best WR here is the way to go.  Titans take T. McMillan, WR, Arizona. 
• Carolina:  Gotta be Mason Graham, DL, Michigan.  (Other options: Mykel Williams, edge--lotta people salivating over him; Jalon Walker LB; James Pearce, edge (local boys)

So what about Dart? 

If enthusiasm for Dart continues, I could see him going to the Colts at 14.  If Tennessee wants him, I could see them trading up with Miami to get him at 13.  I know this sounds crazy, but if high-level officials are saying he is QB 2. 

How in the world is Will Howard a first rounder?  That is crazy talk!!! 

Is it Possible, assuming the draft goes down as described here, that the Browns want the fifth-year option on their future QB, so they do like the Panthers did with XL--they trade up 1 spot with KC or Philly? It may cost them a future third rounder, but the payoff in terms of cap savings could be huge.  So the Browns draft the best player in the draft, Travis Hunter, and they get their future QB (hopefully) at 32, securing inexpensive qb play for 5 years.

Do not underestimate Howard's play in the Playoffs.  He was awesome and demonstrated mobility.  There are QB-needy teams paying attention.  Enough knowledge from me.

Good News for Panther Fans:  If you break down needs as you go through the draft, it is possible Carter falls to us--it is also as unlikely.  The key seems to be the New England pick.  If Hunter is gone, they MUST have an OT for Maye.  Watch them in free agency.    If they draft OT at #4, it opens things up for us.  If (by April) Jaxon Dart seeps into the top 10, great.  I can't believe I am saying that--Dart?  Yeah, from what I am reading today, Dart.

 

 

[Jon Snow]

I would take Dart over Sanders in a heartbeat. Maybe even before Ward. But there really isn't a 1st rounder among them. All of them will be overdrafted out of need.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

I would take Dart over Sanders in a heartbeat. Maybe even before Ward. But there really isn't a 1st rounder among them. All of them will be overdrafted out of need.

I agree.  I think I might take Will Howard over both--I realize they put up stats--something that worries me about Dart in the Kiffin system, but doing it for 3 years is better than Matt Corral, imo,.  If Cleveland takes Hunter and then can get their QB (I am very high on Howard--people call me crazy--even those who don't know my opinion on Howard) and I know that they are very high on him in Ohio.  I think that would be a win-win. Howard could use a season behind a veteran, so I would not be opposed to bringing in a vet like a Taylor Heinicke to help him transition.  In my opinion, Taylor Heinicke is a great backup qb in the NFL

[Jon Snow]

I think the qb run will start in round 2 if there is one. It will come down to who signs qb's in FA and who those qb's are. I just cannot see more than 2 go in the 1st round. The way I see it the value is just not there.

[MHS831]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

I think the qb run will start in round 2 if there is one. It will come down to who signs qb's in FA and who those qb's are. I just cannot see more than 2 go in the 1st round. The way I see it the value is just not there.

Well, I could not draft Dart in round 1--I could not draft Sanders or Ward in the top 10--however, when you are a GM and the free agent market is piss poor, I might be more inclined to roll the dice--there are 2 players from last year that I thought were bad picks (Jayden Daniels--good college player, but a pro? and Bo Nix (I thought he was a second round career backup.  I am terrible at picking pro QBs from the college pool.  Can't do it.  So I can't base my opinion on prior knowledge. 

I try to look at the GM--Schoen in NY HAS TO DRAFT A QB.  I don't even think he can bring in Fields or Darnold--too risky.  He has to hope to get Sanders or Ward--I do not see any options for him.

Darnold will be a Raider---saying it now.  Mark my wirds. By the way, this is one of those threads you make before the all star games and combine and free agency and cringe.

Edited 3 hours ago by MHS831

[Jon Snow]

2 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Well, I could not draft Dart in round 1--I could not draft Sanders or Ward in the top 10--however, when you are a GM and the free agent market is piss poor, I might be more inclined to roll the dice--there are 2 players from last year that I thought were bad picks (Jayden Daniels--good college player, but a pro? and Bo Nix (I thought he was a second round career backup.  I am terrible at picking pro QBs from the college pool.  Can't do it.  So I can't base my opinion on prior knowledge. 

I try to look at the GM--Schoen in NY HAS TO DRAFT A QB.  I don't even think he can bring in Fields or Darnold--too risky.  He has to hope to get Sanders or Ward--I do not see any options for him.

Darnold will be a Raider---saying it now.  Mark my wirds. By the way, this is one of those threads you make before the all star games and combine and free agency and cringe.

I cannot pick who among them will make it either. My only prediction last year was the of all the qb's taken only 2 maybe 3 will have success. And even then it would greatly depend on the team and coaching around them. I still stand by that.

But this year I'm struggling to see any of them being a first year starter much less being able to make it in the nfl. It's a bad year to need a qb.