SI Panthers Mock Draft

[tukafan21]

1 hour ago, Shocker said:

Dude no offense but speed absolutely matters.  You saying this seriously dents your credibility with something with which you clearly think you are some sort of expert.

I have been researching and following the draft since the Panthers first season.

You aren’t the only one on the forum that knows the draft well.  Food for thought 

The point is .06 seconds of a difference in a 40 yard dash has essentially zero bearing on in game NFL speed.

I didn't say speed doesn't matter, but if you watch his tape and think his top end speed is slow, then you just want to see that and are kidding yourself.  Yes, he takes a few strides to really get up to full speed, but that's just something that comes with a player of his size, again, he's never going to be as quick as a 6' guy like some of you seem to think is needed to be a successful WR.

[tukafan21]

1 hour ago, jfra78 said:

He's slow and even if he runs a 4.59 he doesn't play at that speed.  We need speed at reciever plain and simple.  Moose ran a 4.53 and he looks much slower than him

You're right, he doesn't play at 4.59 40 yard dash speed, he plays faster than it

I honestly wonder what people are watching when they say he looks slow, almost every breakdown of him actually calls out his speed and how it's unexpectedly good for a player of his size.

Too many people confuse "speed" with "short area quickness"

Because yes, short area quickness is his biggest negative, but again, 6'5" WR's just don't have that kind of speed.  It would be like Bucs fans being upset that Mike Evans doesn't have track speed.

Edited yesterday at 08:09 PM by tukafan21

[MHS831]

so it is possible that we will have Kobe (Cobee) Bryant and Michael Jackson at corner? 

[Basbear]

2 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

You're right, he doesn't play at 4.59 40 yard dash speed, he plays faster than it

I honestly wonder what people are watching when they say he looks slow, almost every breakdown of him actually calls out his speed and how it's unexpectedly good for a player of his size.

Too many people confuse "speed" with "short area quickness"

Because yes, short area quickness is his biggest negative, but again, 6'5" WR's just don't have that kind of speed.  It would be like Bucs fans being upset that Mike Evans doesn't have track speed.

 

Honestly rough numbers and all, but 40 times are 90% just training your start. Which is why some teams don't put much into them. 

 

My main reason for wanting tmac at 8 or on the Panthers is there's no TE worth the 8th and edge is 2 rounds if not 3 rounds depth. WR is not. 

I feel this draft 95% rides on who is first round pick. 

[tukafan21]

6 minutes ago, Basbear said:

 

Honestly rough numbers and all, but 40 times are 90% just training your start. Which is why some teams don't put much into them. 

 

My main reason for wanting tmac at 8 or on the Panthers is there's no TE worth the 8th and edge is 2 rounds if not 3 rounds depth. WR is not. 

I feel this draft 95% rides on who is first round pick. 

Really, at this point, the only reason to ever put stock in a 40 time is if someone who is supposed to run say a 4.5, runs in the 4.7 range or something awful like that, it would be a bit of a red flag.

Because like you said, it's really about the start you get, which for some players who never ran track and thus never worked on that start until they are done with college and to get ready for the combine, can really hurt their time and make it not accurately comparable to their actual in game speed.  And even beyond that, they're out there running it in essentially underwear these days, which again, running in a dead straight line in underwear does nothing to translate to the game when they're in full pads running routes with defenders out there.

And that's my point, not that speed doesn't matter, but in game speed on tape is FAR more relevant to evaluating a player than their combine 40 time is.

If the 40 yard dash wasn't the most known and visible element of the combine, I really think it would have been eliminated by now.

[Basbear]

2 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Really, at this point, the only reason to ever put stock in a 40 time is if someone who is supposed to run say a 4.5, runs in the 4.7 range or something awful like that, it would be a bit of a red flag.

Because like you said, it's really about the start you get, which for some players who never ran track and thus never worked on that start until they are done with college and to get ready for the combine, can really hurt their time and make it not accurately comparable to their actual in game speed.  And even beyond that, they're out there running it in essentially underwear these days, which again, running in a dead straight line in underwear does nothing to translate to the game when they're in full pads running routes with defenders out there.

And that's my point, not that speed doesn't matter, but in game speed on tape is FAR more relevant to evaluating a player than their combine 40 time is.

If the 40 yard dash wasn't the most known and visible element of the combine, I really think it would have been eliminated by now.

[Tr3ach]

12 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Really, at this point, the only reason to ever put stock in a 40 time is if someone who is supposed to run say a 4.5, runs in the 4.7 range or something awful like that, it would be a bit of a red flag.

Because like you said, it's really about the start you get, which for some players who never ran track and thus never worked on that start until they are done with college and to get ready for the combine, can really hurt their time and make it not accurately comparable to their actual in game speed.  And even beyond that, they're out there running it in essentially underwear these days, which again, running in a dead straight line in underwear does nothing to translate to the game when they're in full pads running routes with defenders out there.

And that's my point, not that speed doesn't matter, but in game speed on tape is FAR more relevant to evaluating a player than their combine 40 time is.

If the 40 yard dash wasn't the most known and visible element of the combine, I really think it would have been eliminated by now.

I hate the 40.  I care much more about shuttles and cones.

[tukafan21]

30 minutes ago, Tr3ach said:

I hate the 40.  I care much more about shuttles and cones.

I hate the majority of things at the combine, even some of the actual football drills.  The NFL combine would be like the NHL testing draft prospects while they're wearing sneakers and on a hardwood floor.  Or the NBA holding their combine on carpet and the players compete barefoot.

Even things like the QB's throwing, just isn't the same as throwing without shoulder pads isn't the same as throwing with them on.

The NFL combine should be in full pads and the drills should better represent what a player needs to do in games, even some of the shuttles/cones drills aren't really football moves as much as a way to judge some foot speed and cutting ability in a vacuum, but not doing it in an "on field football way"

I'd rather see them test players based on positions, so like for WRs, time them needing to run a 15 yard out from one hash to the opposite sideline.  Or have them run a "40 yard dash" that has them run 10 yards straight and then on a 45 degree angle for the remaining 30 yards as if they're running a flag or post route.  Then the opposite for DB's, they need to run backwards for 10 yards and then turn for a sprint over the final 30 and that is the "DB 40 yard dash."  For RB's, make them chop their steps 5 times and then see how long it takes them to then run 10 yards or something that more mocks them waiting on a handoff and then hitting the hole. 

Yes, I realize that's not going to happen, but I think things like that would be much more beneficial to judging how timed things would translate to the field.

Edited yesterday at 11:21 PM by tukafan21

[Shocker]

When you are picking a WR in the top 10 speed is extremely important.  Hopefully we don’t have a GM that sees him run 4.59 thinks it’ll be fine.  That’s ridiculous 

[tukafan21]

6 hours ago, Shocker said:

When you are picking a WR in the top 10 speed is extremely important.  Hopefully we don’t have a GM that sees him run 4.59 thinks it’ll be fine.  That’s ridiculous 

Again, why is this so hard to understand... 40 time does not equal game speed.  

The 40 yard dash is the most antiquated tool to analyze draft prospects, it's more based on how quickly you're able to get out of the blocks, a position no WR (or even any other player) is ever set up in, than actual speed.

I'm not even saying he'll run that slow, as I think he breaks 4.5 anyways, but if you watch his game tape and you think he runs a 4.6 type of speed, then you're just lying to yourself to sell your own narrative of what you want to believe.

In short, yes, speed is important, but no, the 40 time is not.  If any GM is basing their decision of a player on their 40 time more than 3 years worth of game tape, then they deserve to be fired for that alone.

Edited 3 hours ago by tukafan21

[jfra78]

2 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

Again, why is this so hard to understand... 40 time does not equal game speed.  

The 40 yard dash is the most antiquated tool to analyze draft prospects, it's more based on how quickly you're able to get out of the blocks, a position no WR (or even any other player) is ever set up in, than actual speed.

I'm not even saying he'll run that slow, as I think he breaks 4.5 anyways, but if you watch his game tape and you think he runs a 4.6 type of speed, then you're just lying to yourself to sell your own narrative of what you want to believe.

In short, yes, speed is important, but no, the 40 time is not.  If any GM is basing their decision of a player on their 40 time more than 3 years worth of game tape, then they deserve to be fired for that alone.

He plays slow too, why do you think everyone says he is slow

[tukafan21]

3 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

He plays slow too, why do you think everyone says he is slow

Because they're crazy

I honestly can't see how anyone can watch his tape and say he plays slow when he's constantly making defenders miss and running away from them once he does.  

No, he's not a track star so he's not able to do that every time he touches it like a Tyreek can, but if you watch all of his tape and come away with saying "he plays slow" then you're fooling yourself to fit a narrative you want to believe.  

Basically every "expert breakdown" of his film mentions how he has surprising speed for a player of his size, but sure, he plays slow to the people on these boards since they expect all WRs to have Tyreek type of track speed.

He was 5th in the Big 12 this season in YAC, but sure, he's slow.

Edited 1 hour ago by tukafan21

[tukafan21]

5 minutes ago, jfra78 said:

He plays slow too, why do you think everyone says he is slow

As a follow up, here is a few snippets from PFF's draft profile of him....

From his Strengths.....

• Easy accelerator with great explosive capacity and energetic motion for his size.
• Has the curvilinear acceleration to bend through route breaks while keeping speed.
• Has the long-strider speed to chew up space and threaten defenses vertically.
• Explosion, agility, fluidity, speed, and grating play strength are all conducive to RAC.

From his Weaknesses..... 

• Speed, while great, is not elite, as he struggles to sustain separation on crossers.

They literally say his speed is "great" in his weaknesses category.  

Like I've said too many times to count, he's 6'5", he's never going to be the track star of a 6' WR that people seem to think every WR needs or else they can't be elite.  But he has MORE than enough speed to be a true #1 WR and the people who think he "plays slow" haven't watched near enough of his tape and are trying to force a "slow plodding big WR" narrative on him because of his size.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/tetairoa-mcmillan-draft-profile/