Anyone left who does not believe in Bryce ?

[tukafan21]

7 minutes ago, Joe Bear said:

Other than his most ardent detractors -- of which you've admitted to being one -- there's an understanding among everyone that Young's done enough to deserve Year 3 as the starter and to go from there. If he keeps an upward trajectory, trading him would be stupid. If he doesn't, he'll play you into his replacement. That's just too logical to not explore first, even if it means people have to hate-watch for longer than they wanted.

This couldn't be more wrong

Even if he keeps his upward trajectory, he's a LONG way away from being a clear cut franchise QB that would be stupid to trade away.  People keep conflating "improvement" with "franchise QB" and they couldn't be further apart.

And if he doesn't keep improving but plays equally to how he played these last 10 games, then no, he isn't going to play us into his replacement, he's going to play us into the 13th pick of the draft where we can't draft his replacement and we also still miss out on the other true elite talent.

Like I said, NFL purgatory, it's the worst place a franchise can get stuck in, it's the Bengals of the Lewis/Dalton era.  

[mrcompletely11]

37 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Doesn’t fit my narrative so I think it’s silly 

Lol

[tukafan21]

12 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

He wasn't in aggregate below average. The NFL average was about 215 yards/game on 32ish attempts per game, with about 1.5 TDs per game. Bryce is pretty close to that - slightly low on yards, at that on TDs, and that's before you including his rushing (where he ends up over in both).  He had the 5th most rushing TDs of any QB this year, despite his low attempts and fewer games.  His 2 TDs/game puts him quite far above the average.

There's no reason to remove his best game in several categories unless you also did it to his worst, when comparing him to the average.  If we throw in his other games from before the benching, tho, he's below the average by quite a bit.

Fine, remove his "worst" game from the equation then, he still has over a dozen other god awful games, but if you remove his "best" game, he doesn't have another one remotely close to it.

And doing team averages really is pointless as the really low ones bring that down, it's about comparing him to other QB's.

There were 19 QB's (who started at least 8 games) who averaged over 220 yards passing a game.

And that doesn't include Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts.  Who if you want to include some rushing TD stats, combined for 26 rushing TDs this year and almost 1,000 yards.  Also, Allen would have averaged 233 ypg if he just didn't play week 18 instead of starting to keep his streak but not even attempt a pass before being benched.

Over the last 10 games, Bryce averaged 210.4 yards passing per game.  There were 22 QB's this year to average more yards per game than that, of which it doesn't include Hurts, Lawrence, or Maye, 3 players I'd trade Bryce for in a heartbeat (contracts aside of course as I wouldn't want Lawrence's or Hurt's contracts right now with the state of our roster)

 

Edited 5 hours ago by tukafan21

[KSpan]

47 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

Doesn’t fit my narrative so I think it’s silly 

What narrative is that exactly? I said it's a dumb 'stat' in all cases for all QBs. Analytics and data analysis has its place for sure but the more arbitrary, esoteric things like this can be dumb.

Guess my lack of narrative doesn't fit your narrative though.

Edited 5 hours ago by KSpan

[mav1234]

5 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Fine, remove his "worst" game from the equation then, he still has over a dozen other god awful games, but if you remove his "best" game, he doesn't have another one remotely close to it.

And doing team averages really is pointless as the really low ones bring that down, it's about comparing him to other QB's.

There were 19 QB's (who started at least 8 games) who averaged over 220 yards passing a game.

And somehow that doesn't include Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts.  Who if you want to include some rushing TD stats, combined for 26 rushing TDs this year and almost 1,000 yards.

Over the last 10 games, Bryce averaged 210.4 yards passing per game.  There were 22 QB's this year to average more yards per game than that, of which it doesn't include Hurts, Lawrence, or Maye, 3 players I'd trade Bryce for in a heartbeat (contracts aside of course as I wouldn't want Lawrence's or Hurt's contracts right now with the state of our roster)

How many QBs averaged 2 or more TDs per game?

Edit: I'm not going to compare Bryce to Allen or Hurts, lol, wtf. The dude has gone from awful to in aggregate average, with some bright spots. Doesn't mean I think he's a top 5 starter, Jesus.

Edited 5 hours ago by mav1234

[tukafan21]

6 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

How many QBs averaged 2 or more TDs per game?

He had 15 TDs over his last 9 games before the final game where he had 5 TDs

Again, one big game skewing averages doesn't tell a full story.  He had 4 games with 1 TD, 4 games with 2 TDs, and then 2 games with 8 TDs that then pull a 10 game average up to that 2 TDs per game number.

So even then, it's 2 games out of 10 skewing an arbitrary number that you're using to point towards him being a better than average QB.

You don't see why that doesn't hold up once you dig into the actual numbers and where they come from?

Are you saying you want to disregard his other 26 starts to focus on the 2 that skew his averages to tell the narrative you want to believe?

Edited 5 hours ago by tukafan21

[Aussie Tank]

Seems like this thread has turned into the Bryce detractors echo chamber 

[mav1234]

Just now, tukafan21 said:

He had 15 TDs over his last 9 games before the final game where he had 5 TDs

Again, one big game skewing averages doesn't tell a full story.  He had 4 games with 1 TD, 4 games with 2 TDs, and then 2 games that then pull a 10 game average up to that 2 TDs per game number.

So even then, it's 2 games out of 10 skewing an arbitrary number that you're using to point towards him being a better than average QB.

You don't see why that doesn't hold up once you dig into the actual numbers and where they come from?

Bryce had 20 total TDs in 10 games.  You can dice up those 10 games all you want, it doesn't matter. He had 20 TDs in 10 games. Are you going to go remove the best game from every QBs years for comparison, or just Bryce Young's?  Bryce scored 2 TDs in 5 of his last 6 games...

We want to talk yards, sure. All good. He was pretty much average there, or slightly below. 

I mean, I can look up the QBs with 2 or more TDs per game since suddenly you're so reluctant to...

[tukafan21]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

Bryce had 20 total TDs in 10 games.  You can dice up those 10 games all you want, it doesn't matter. He had 20 TDs in 10 games. Are you going to go remove the best game from every QBs years for comparison, or just Bryce Young's?  Bryce scored 2 TDs in 5 of his last 6 games...

We want to talk yards, sure. All good. He was pretty much average there, or slightly below. 

I mean, I can look up the QBs with 2 or more TDs per game since suddenly you're so reluctant to...

Yes, it would be totally fair to remove the best game or two from every player's stats when you want to look at averages, just as it would be fair to remove their worst game or two as well.

Average stats do NOT equal average performances.  You're basically trying to use Bryce's best (or two best) games of his entire career to skew his overall averages to make it seem like those are his average performances every week.

I also think it's funny that you're arguing about removing a game's stats from a player's averages, but yet you only want to look at Bryce's last 10 games and not include the ones before it.  Which is exactly why I didn't bother looking up QB's who averaged 2 TD's a game, because if you really want to do that correctly, you need to go through the game logs of every starting QB and only look at their best 10 game stretch this year, and no, I'm not going through that effort.

Also, looking at QB TD averages just isn't a fair way to compare QB's performances either.

Let me ask you this.... do you think Bryce is even in the same league as Jared Goff right now?

Because according to you, Bryce's 2.0 TD average to Goff's 2.17 TD average (on the full season) says they're pretty close to even (less than 3 TDs more over a 17 game season).  But if you dig deeper you'll see that Goff's best 10 game stretch this year was 2.6 TDs per game.  Dig a little deeper and you'll see that we had 12 rushing TD's this year by players not named Bryce Young, while the Lions had 2 players who EACH had at least 12 rushing TD's for a combined 28, thus taking away A LOT more TD opportunities for Goff than were taken from Bryce.

Or how about this one, Bo Nix had 33 TDs this year, 1 TD short of averaging 2 TD's a game over the full season he played.

But he had 25 TDs over his final 10 games of the season, averaging a full half TD more per game than Bryce did over that span, or 8.5 TD's over the course of a full season.  You're criticizing me for wanting to remove Bryce's best game when looking at his averages, but at the same time want to look at Bryce's 10 game averages against 17 game averages for other players.

But as you can see from all this, looking at average stats over the course of a large sample size of games is just an extremely flawed way of judging and comparing players, particularly when one or two games over that stretch drastically skew the averages.

And again, no, Bryce is NOT about average when it comes to yards.  Because you're trying to compare his final 10 games yards vs the NFL's overall passing yards per game, where a few teams drastically lower than average.  But like I pointed out previously, there were 22 QB's to start at least 8 games this year who averaged more yards per game than Bryce did over his last 10.

In a league with 32 teams, being the 23rd best QB at something doesn't make you average, it's the literal definition of below average.  And again, that's comparing Bryce's best 10 game stretch vs the full season for the rest of the league, if you pull out only their 10 best starts, I'm sure he falls at least a few more spots down in that order.

Edited 4 hours ago by tukafan21

[Navy_football]

3 hours ago, tukafan21 said:

Because we traded 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and our best offensive player to get him and he's now 1 season away from when franchise QB's get signed to contract extensions.  We shouldn't be anointing him as a franchise QB after a couple small moments of positive things at this point in his career, he should be clearly showing that he's the guy, if he's going to be THE guy.

2 years into his career with 28 starts and he has only one 300 yard game, 17 games UNDER 200 yards, 26 passing TDs (yes, he has 6 rushing), and 19 INTs, and only 5 games with a QBR over 61.  Yes, he had a BIG game in week 18, but before that, he wasn't lighting defenses up, he was playing serviceably against poor defenses.   

Showing "huge improvement" like you said isn't quite as impressive when that huge improvement was from looking like legitimately the biggest bust in draft history.  

In the 10 starts after his benching, the timeframe people are pointing to his turnaround, he had a grand total of 3 games where he had more than 224 yards passing, with 2 of them coming in OT against 2 of the worst pass defenses in the league this year.

Not saying you don't ask a valid question, but the above is the valid response to it.  While at the same time we can ask the question of.... Why do all the Bryce truthers put so much weight behind his Week 18 game and disregard the previous 27 starts he made?

Matt Flynn went 31-44 for 480 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 INT in the final week of the season.  

One big game in the final week doesn't make for a franchise QB, but on here, people are taking that game as the definitive proof that we found our long term QB solution.

His first 18 games were pretty bad for the most part. I had all but given up on him after the first 2 this year. But he's been playing good football the last 10. I mean good football. It's not unfair to reference stats but you have to dig deeper than yards and TDs a game. I mean I know you realize that we really don't have weapons here to put up gaudy passing numbers. Isn't that why you keep drumming for Tet? DJ was supposed to be that guy, but he went full Antonio Brown. Here, a poster referenced deeper stats that showed Bryce was actually getting through his progressions at a high tick compared to the rest of the league, which is unusual and impressive for a young QB. But rather than say that's a good thing, we should punch holes in it? We should find the negative and point out that he isn't passing for 300 yards a game - with Adam Thielen as his #1 target? No offense to Thielen but he shouldn’t be anyone's #1 receiver at this stage in his career. Maybe safety blanket. But not #1 guy.

I'm just saying. When he's playing bad. It's ok to say he's playing bad. I know I do. But when he's looking good, it's ok to say he looks good, without caveats. Hopefully this is a turning point for him going forward, but he's never going to consistently meet your passing criteria with a receiving group that isn't put together to put up big numbers. Other QBs have receivers that make people miss and break long plays all the time. We've rarely seen that this year at all. I mean I can't even recall a screen pass to a receiver that went over 15 yards all year. I don't know if he will definitely be the franchise QB, but going by his recent play he looks to be the part - to me and alot of impartial experts.

[tukafan21]

I also need to reiterate that nothing I've said means I'm rooting for him to fail, when he's our starting QB come week 1 next year, I'm 100% rooting for him to have an MVP season and show he can be our franchise QB, as that would be what is best for this franchise.

I just don't see it happening

Sure, I no longer think he's the biggest bust in NFL history who shouldn't even be on a roster like I did after last year and the start of this one.  I'll give him that credit, that he's turned it around and shown me more than enough to say that's no longer the case.

But even after his turnaround, I'm now back to, at best, my pre-draft evaluation of him as someone who will end up in that "20-25th best QB in the league" category.   Which unfortunately in today's NFL is purgatory, that's someone probably too good for a team to ever let walk in free agency but not good enough to ever truly have you be in SB contention.  Honestly, his peak potential for me is probably a Sam Darnold this year, someone who has a beneficial schedule so you put up a good record, but in the end, never really stood a chance at this time of the year.

Because in the end, his physical abilities and limitations are always going to be a hinderance for him at this level.  It's like I said before we drafted him, Bryce needs to be the literal biggest outlier in the history of the NFL to end up being successful.

[Navy_football]

2 hours ago, KSpan said:

I just find that particular esoteric 'stat' to be an eyeroll for any QB and make fun of it wherever it pops up, always have. The fact that it was tossed out ad nauseum across Pantherland these last weeks led to my sarcastic comment. Bryce played better for sure, but the BIG TIME THROWS stat itself is silly in any context.

Oh you're talking about the big time throws stat. Yeah I agree and I don't really even know what that means. Seams like a subjective stat. 

[mav1234]

18 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

Yes, it would be totally fair to remove the best game or two from every player's stats when you want to look at averages, just as it would be fair to remove their worst game or two as well.

Average stats do NOT equal average performances.  You're basically trying to use Bryce's best (or two best) games of his entire career to skew his overall averages to make it seem like those are his average performances every week.

I also think it's funny that you're arguing about removing a game's stats from a player's averages, but yet you only want to look at Bryce's last 10 games and not include the ones before it.  Which is exactly why I didn't bother looking up QB's who averaged 2 TD's a game, because if you really want to do that correctly, you need to go through the game logs of every starting QB and only look at their best 10 game stretch this year, and no, I'm not going through that effort.

Also, looking at QB TD averages just isn't a fair way to compare QB's performances either.

Let me ask you this.... do you think Bryce is even in the same league as Jared Goff right now?

Because according to you, Bryce's 2.0 TD average to Goff's 2.17 TD average (on the full season) says they're pretty close to even (less than 3 TDs more over a 17 game season).  But if you dig deeper you'll see that Goff's best 10 game stretch this year was 2.6 TDs per game.  Dig a little deeper and you'll see that we had 12 rushing TD's this year by players not named Bryce Young, while the Lions had 2 players who EACH had at least 12 rushing TD's for a combined 28, thus taking away A LOT more TD opportunities for Goff than were taken from Bryce.

Or how about this one, Bo Nix had 33 TDs this year, 1 TD short of averaging 2 TD's a game over the full season he played.

But he had 25 TDs over his final 10 games of the season, averaging a full half TD more per game than Bryce did over that span, or 8.5 TD's over the course of a full season.  You're criticizing me for wanting to remove Bryce's best game when looking at his averages, but at the same time want to look at Bryce's 10 game averages against 17 game averages for other players.

But as you can see from all this, looking at average stats over the course of a large sample size of games is just an extremely flawed way of judging and comparing players, particularly when one or two games over that stretch drastically skew the averages.

And again, no, Bryce is NOT about average when it comes to yards.  Because you're trying to compare his final 10 games yards vs the NFL's overall passing yards per game, where a few teams drastically lower than average.  But like I pointed out previously, there were 22 QB's to start at least 8 games this year who averaged more yards per game than Bryce did over his last 10.

In a league with 32 teams, being the 23rd best QB at something doesn't make you average, it's the literal definition of below average.  And again, that's comparing Bryce's best 10 game stretch vs the full season for the rest of the league, if you pull out only their 10 best starts, I'm sure he falls at least a few more spots down in that order.

Haha good lord, dude.  You just wrote an essay, largely off the false premise I somehow think Bryce and Goff are equal. 

You're the one that claimed, incorrectly, Bryce was below average over the last 10 games. When I pointed out that he's above average in TDs scored, below average in passing yards but competitive in total yards, you moved the goal posts, because you were wrong. 

I never said Bryce was "pretty close" to Goff.  Why would I? Goff is having a great season. The only area Bryce beats him in is rushing, and while that's nice and all lol, Bryce isn't the QB Goff is. But, at this point, not many are.  Congrats on finding one of the QBs that is averaging more than 2 TDs a game!  There are a few more, even!

[tukafan21]

1 minute ago, Navy_football said:

His first 18 games were pretty bad for the most part. I had all but given up on him after the first 2 this year. But he's been playing good football the last 10. I mean good football. It's not unfair to reference stats but you have to dig deeper than yards and TDs a game. I mean I know you realize that we really don't have weapons here to put up gaudy passing numbers. Isn't that why you keep drumming for Tet? DJ was supposed to be that guy, but he went full Antonio Brown. Here, a poster referenced deeper stats that showed Bryce was actually getting through his progressions at a high tick compared to the rest of the league, which is unusual and impressive for a young QB. But rather than say that's a good thing, we should punch holes in it? We should find the negative and point out that he isn't passing for 300 yards a game - with Adam Thielen as his #1 target? No offense to Thielen but he shouldn’t be anyone's #1 receiver at this stage in his career. Maybe safety blanket. But not #1 guy.

I'm just saying. When he's playing bad. It's ok to say he's playing bad. I know I do. But when he's looking good, it's ok to say he looks good, without caveats. Hopefully this is a turning point for him going forward, but he's never going to consistently meet your passing criteria with a receiving group that isn't put together to put up big numbers. Other QBs have receivers that make people miss and break long plays all the time. We've rarely seen that this year at all. I mean I can't even recall a screen pass to a receiver that went over 15 yards all year. I don't know if he will definitely be the franchise QB, but going by his recent play he looks to be the part - to me and alot of impartial experts.

All fair, but also see the post I just made at the same time you did this one.

I think people are reading too much into my "anti Bryce" posts as, "he sucks and he's still going to be the worst QB ever."  That's not the case, I'm just pushing back on this narrative over the past few weeks of, "we've found our franchise QB" as I still just don't see it.

My biggest issue with him is his arm.  There are a lot of pretty standard throws that he just can't make, at least not to the level that even an above average NFL QB can make.  In particular it's the throws you have to drive into a small window, key word there being "drive" and not "place."

As yes, I'll give him credit, he does have some nice touch to get the ball into some smaller windows.  

But I'm talking about that 20 yard curl route in the seam where you have a safety over the top, linebacker underneath, corner closing on the WR, and he needs to fire it in there before any can step in the path for an INT or just break it up.  Or even that 15 yard out route on the opposite hash that he can't loft over there but needs to drive it in there.

He just doesn't have THAT kind of arm, and in today's game, with how much better corners are getting, it's something you need to have in your bag if you want to be an above average QB.  Especially when you're Bryce with the rest of his physical limitations that the has, such as his deep ball, which is easily the worst amongst starting QB's.