Anyone left who does not believe in Bryce ?

[Navy_football]

2 hours ago, *FreeFua* said:

Doesn’t fit my narrative so I think it’s silly 

I don't know Fua. That's a weird stat to me. Just my opinion. So what if the QB makes a great throw and the receiver drops it? Does it count? What if the QB just throws it really hard into a crowd and the receiver makes a great catch and bails him out? Does that count? Penix had a lot of big time throws in the last game that looked to me like London making crazy plays on the ball where Penix threw balls he had no business throwing. And our secondary has no ball skills. But that's another discussion. 

[mav1234]

1 minute ago, Navy_football said:

I don't know Fua. That's a weird stat to me. Just my opinion. So what if the QB makes a great throw and the receiver drops it? Does it count? What if the QB just throws it really hard into a crowd and the receiver makes a great catch and bails him out? Does that count? Penix had a lot of big time throws in the last game that looked to me like London making crazy plays on the ball where Penix threw balls he had no business throwing. And our secondary has no ball skills. But that's another discussion. 

From what I understand, drops can count as 'big time throws' if they are considered a real drop (as opposed to a Panthers Fan Drop, which is "the receiver had his fingertips on it and should have caught it, DROP")

[tukafan21]

9 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Haha good lord, dude.  You just wrote an essay, largely off the false premise I somehow think Bryce and Goff are equal. 

You're the one that claimed, incorrectly, Bryce was below average over the last 10 games. When I pointed out that he's above average in TDs scored, below average in passing yards but competitive in total yards, you moved the goal posts, because you were wrong. 

I never said Bryce was "pretty close" to Goff.  Why would I? Goff is having a great season. The only area Bryce beats him in is rushing, and while that's nice and all lol, Bryce isn't the QB Goff is. But, at this point, not many are.  Congrats on finding one of the QBs that is averaging more than 2 TDs a game!  There are a few more, even!

Again, #1 flaw in your post is you're trying to compare Bryce's last 10 games vs the rest of the league's 17 game averages (for the 2 TD stat).

As like I pointed out, Nix falls below your 2 TD a game average number, but over his last 10 games he's actually at 2.5 per game.  If you pull the best 10 game stretch for all QB's this year, I'd be quite confident in saying Bryce is NOT in the top 16.

You don't want to remove the one (or two) best games from Bryce's averages but you want to include up to the 7 worst games from other QB's you're comparing him to.

And the reason I picked Goff was because he was so close to the 2 TD per game number over the course of the season.  Hence why I then did his best 10 game stretch to give a better comparison to your Bryce number, which again, he came in at 2.6 TDs per game.

If you want to use Bryce's 10 game numbers, you need to do equal comparisons for everyone else as well.

It all also again just ignores that this magical 2 TD per game number you like to point out is only the case because of 20% of the games in the stretch you're talking about, if not for that, it's significantly less.

Edited 8 hours ago by tukafan21

[mav1234]

3 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

All fair, but also see the post I just made at the same time you did this one.

I think people are reading too much into my "anti Bryce" posts as, "he sucks and he's still going to be the worst QB ever."  That's not the case, I'm just pushing back on this narrative over the past few weeks of, "we've found our franchise QB" as I still just don't see it.

My biggest issue with him is his arm.  There are a lot of pretty standard throws that he just can't make, at least not to the level that even an above average NFL QB can make.  In particular it's the throws you have to drive into a small window, key word there being "drive" and not "place."

As yes, I'll give him credit, he does have some nice touch to get the ball into some smaller windows.  

But I'm talking about that 20 yard curl route in the seam where you have a safety over the top, linebacker underneath, corner closing on the WR, and he needs to fire it in there before any can step in the path for an INT or just break it up.  Or even that 15 yard out route on the opposite hash that he can't loft over there but needs to drive it in there.

He just doesn't have THAT kind of arm, and in today's game, with how much better corners are getting, it's something you need to have in your bag if you want to be an above average QB.  Especially when you're Bryce with the rest of his physical limitations that the has, such as his deep ball, which is easily the worst amongst starting QB's.

I mean all this is why a lot of us are still skeptical he'll be a long term answer at QB. But, he's managed to make a lot of difficult throws into tight windows. His yardage is low, yes, but his productivity overall is pretty good. Long term, what will it be like? That's what we'll have to see.

[tukafan21]

5 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

I mean all this is why a lot of us are still skeptical he'll be a long term answer at QB. But, he's managed to make a lot of difficult throws into tight windows. His yardage is low, yes, but his productivity overall is pretty good. Long term, what will it be like? That's what we'll have to see.

The problem is that A LOT of people here haven't been saying this, they've been saying these last 10 games have proved he's the player the team thought they were drafting and are completely confident that we've found our long term QB solution.

I think people pointing to the KC and Eagles games as proof of his play are just sticking their heads in the sand when it comes to elite teams overlooking games that they consider easy wins, like we were to those two legit SB caliber teams.  You can not believe that's a thing if you want, and yes, sometimes those great teams blow the doors off the bad teams (like the Lions did a few times this year), but there is a LONG history of those being closer than they should be games because the better team was looking ahead.

And again, my biggest fear with Bryce isn't that he'll be a complete bust.  It's that he's going to become that 23rd best QB in the league and we get stuck in NFL purgatory for the next decade.  

To me... THAT is not finding your long term franchise QB, that's just taking shots to your nuts every season and coming back for more.

Edited 8 hours ago by tukafan21

[Navy_football]

9 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

All fair, but also see the post I just made at the same time you did this one.

I think people are reading too much into my "anti Bryce" posts as, "he sucks and he's still going to be the worst QB ever."  That's not the case, I'm just pushing back on this narrative over the past few weeks of, "we've found our franchise QB" as I still just don't see it.

My biggest issue with him is his arm.  There are a lot of pretty standard throws that he just can't make, at least not to the level that even an above average NFL QB can make.  In particular it's the throws you have to drive into a small window, key word there being "drive" and not "place."

As yes, I'll give him credit, he does have some nice touch to get the ball into some smaller windows.  

But I'm talking about that 20 yard curl route in the seam where you have a safety over the top, linebacker underneath, corner closing on the WR, and he needs to fire it in there before any can step in the path for an INT or just break it up.  Or even that 15 yard out route on the opposite hash that he can't loft over there but needs to drive it in there.

He just doesn't have THAT kind of arm, and in today's game, with how much better corners are getting, it's something you need to have in your bag if you want to be an above average QB.  Especially when you're Bryce with the rest of his physical limitations that the has, such as his deep ball, which is easily the worst amongst starting QB's.

Ok. You give a lot of weight to arm talent. Then you're never gonna like Bryce. He's never going to have a top arm in the league. Heck he drops further back every year as stronger armed rookies keep getting drafted.

I'm OK with the way he plays though. A rifle would definitely help, but not sure it's needed to be successful. Accuracy, anticipation, being able to layer the ball, finding passing lanes are just as important. And there's more than one way to complete that 15 yards out and that 20 yards curl. He's done both. Not consistently in the rocket arm fashion, but that won't ever consistently be his game. 

So if he and the team around him continue to improve and they win games, would you be more accepting of his lack of arm talent? 

[mav1234]

Just now, tukafan21 said:

Again, #1 flaw in your post is you're trying to compare Bryce's last 10 games vs the rest of the league's 17 game averages (for the 2 TD stat).

As like I pointed out, Nix falls below your 2 TD a game average number, but over his last 10 games he's actually at 2.5 per game.  If you pull the best 10 game stretch for all QB's this year, I'd be quite confident in saying Bryce is NOT in the top 16.

You don't want to remove the one (or two) best games from Bryce's averages but you want to include up to the 7 worst games from other QB's you're comparing him to.

And the reason I picked Goff was because he was so close to the 2 TD per game number over the course of the season.  Hence why I then did his best 10 game stretch to give a better comparison to your Bryce number, which again, he came in at 2.6 TDs per game.

If you want to use Bryce's 10 game numbers, you need to do equal comparisons for everyone else as well.

There's no reason to use "the 10 best" for every player, because these are just stats after his benching - they don't reflect an arbitrary sample of Bryce's ten best games. We'll be able to do a better comparison next year, when he hopefully plays a whole season.  You could compare him to the last 10 games for every QB, but I'm not going to spend the time to do that.  There is a site that shows the last 5, and over those, Bryce's 2.6 TD/g is good for 8th while his ~230 total yards is good for like 18th.  I value scoring much more than I do yardage tbh.  But 5 games - hell 10 games - isn't really enough for much.

8 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

The problem is that A LOT of people here haven't been saying this, they've been saying these last 10 games have proved he's the player the team thought they were drafting and are completely confident that we've found our long term QB solution.

I think people pointing to the KC and Eagles games as proof of his play are just sticking their heads in the sand when it comes to elite teams overlooking games that they consider easy wins, like we were to those two legit SB caliber teams.  You can not believe that's a thing if you want, and yes, sometimes those great teams blow the doors off the bad teams (like the Lions did a few times this year), but there is a LONG history of those being closer than they should be games because the better team was looking ahead.

I think there's a lot of us that are cautiously optimistic, but aren't at all sold.  I think a lot of us also see the last few months as better than you do, too, but not necessarily indicative of anything much for his career - but we're allowed to disagree. You're right some are using the games to confirm pre draft position but I think most of the consistent posters are just cautiously optimistic. 

[tukafan21]

31 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

Ok. You give a lot of weight to arm talent. Then you're never gonna like Bryce. He's never going to have a top arm in the league. Heck he drops further back every year as stronger armed rookies keep getting drafted.

I'm OK with the way he plays though. A rifle would definitely help, but not sure it's needed to be successful. Accuracy, anticipation, being able to layer the ball, finding passing lanes are just as important. And there's more than one way to complete that 15 yards out and that 20 yards curl. He's done both. Not consistently in the rocket arm fashion, but that won't ever consistently be his game. 

So if he and the team around him continue to improve and they win games, would you be more accepting of his lack of arm talent? 

I don't need my QB to have arm talent for me to like them, but I do put a lot of weight to how it can affect that player's max potential when it's as bad as Bryce's is, particularly when combined with his overall size.  Even the most ardent Bryce supporters can't honestly deny that Bryce is likely to have the weakest arm of all starting QB's his entire career, maybe some year's he's only in the Bottom 5, but short of pumping steroids, that's never going to change.

I'm not a historian of the league on QB's arm strength compared to others, but how many players with that weak of an arm compared to the rest of the league, also was an above average QB for a sustained period of time?

I know Brees didn't have a great arm and that's the comparison people like to use for Bryce, but again, he's smaller and weaker armed than even Brees was, and Brees is one of the biggest outliers in NFL history as is.  Which is why Bryce was also betting on him becoming THE biggest outlier in league history at the position. 

Bryce doesn't need to become any certain type of QB for me to like him or to be considered a success.  But he does need to become a QB who raises the play of your team, who can drag you to wins when needed, and has you as a contender in more years than not (all teams have down years, but the great QB's have their teams winning playoff games more years than not).

It's why I didn't want to draft Bryce, because I just never did, and still don't, think he has that potential in him for a long period of time and at a high level.  Can we put the perfect team around him and we get the right schedule in any given year for a player like him to lead us to a high seed and maybe make a run, sure of course.  

But those teams don't have sustained success because it takes the perfect combination of rookie contracts and lucky picks/signings that all pan out at the right time.  They have a great regular season, flame out in the playoffs, and then go back to being that team that either just misses the playoffs or just makes it in to lose in the first round every year.  Picking in the 13-20 range every year, always missing out on the true elite talent in the draft but still not contending.

Is that who fans want us to become?  I know it's better than what we've been for a while, but I want better for my team, I love our Panthers and I want us to win the Super Bowl.

Prove me wrong, I want to be wrong, I don't want to be stuck in NFL purgatory, I don't want to need to have to find a new QB in 2 or 3 years because we still can't get into the playoffs.

But I am who I am, and I am someone who doesn't keep his team colored glasses on at all times to only looks at the positive, I look at realities and call them how I see them.  And I see Bryce as our path to NFL purgatory at best right now and it scares the living hell out of me.

Bryce, prove me wrong.

[tukafan21]

18 minutes ago, tukafan21 said:

I don't need my QB to have arm talent for me to like them, but I do put a lot of weight to how it can affect that player's max potential when it's as bad as Bryce's is, particularly when combined with his overall size.  Even the most ardent Bryce supporters can't honestly deny that Bryce is likely to have the weakest arm of all starting QB's his entire career, maybe some year's he's only in the Bottom 5, but short of pumping steroids, that's never going to change.

I'm not a historian of the league on QB's arm strength compared to others, but how many players with that weak of an arm compared to the rest of the league, also was an above average QB for a sustained period of time?

I know Brees didn't have a great arm and that's the comparison people like to use for Bryce, but again, he's smaller and weaker armed than even Brees was, and Brees is one of the biggest outliers in NFL history as is.  Which is why Bryce was also betting on him becoming THE biggest outlier in league history at the position. 

Bryce doesn't need to become any certain type of QB for me to like him or to be considered a success.  But he does need to become a QB who raises the play of your team, who can drag you to wins when needed, and has you as a contender in more years than not (all teams have down years, but the great QB's have their teams winning playoff games more years than not).

It's why I didn't want to draft Bryce, because I just never did, and still don't, think he has that potential in him for a long period of time and at a high level.  Can we put the perfect team around him and we get the right schedule in any given year for a player like him to lead us to a high seed and maybe make a run, sure of course.  

But those teams don't have sustained success because it takes the perfect combination of rookie contracts and lucky picks/signings that all pan out at the right time.  They have a great regular season, flame out in the playoffs, and then go back to being that team that either just misses the playoffs or just makes it in to lose in the first round every year.  Picking in the 13-20 range every year, always missing out on the true elite talent in the draft but still not contending.

Is that who fans want us to become?  I know it's better than what we've been for a while, but I want better for my team, I love our Panthers and I want us to win the Super Bowl.

Prove me wrong, I want to be wrong, I don't want to be stuck in NFL purgatory, I don't want to need to have to find a new QB in 2 or 3 years because we still can't get into the playoffs.

But I am who I am, and I am someone who doesn't keep his team colored glasses on at all times to only looks at the positive, I look at realities and call them how I see them.  And I see Bryce as our path to NFL purgatory at best right now and it scares the living hell out of me.

Bryce, prove me wrong.

All of this is also why I think T-Mac should be the overall #1 player on our board this year.

People like to say he doesn't have "take the top off" type of speed, well Bryce doesn't have the arm to take advantage of that type of player either, he can't out throw the defense like that and let the Tyreek type catch up to it.

Bryce has the "heave to get it 60 yards for a jump ball" type of arm, exactly the type of pass that is T-Mac's specialty and literally what he is best at as a WR.  

Bryce doesn't have the zip it into a tight window arm, but he has the touch to put the ball where he wants to.  Like when you have a 6'5" WR with a stupid catch radius and vice grips for hands so you put some air under it and put it where only he can reach instead of forcing it into a window.

If you want to help Bryce succeed, you draft him if he's there, no matter who else is on the board.

[*FreeFua*]

8 hours ago, Navy_football said:

I don't know Fua. That's a weird stat to me. Just my opinion. So what if the QB makes a great throw and the receiver drops it? Does it count? What if the QB just throws it really hard into a crowd and the receiver makes a great catch and bails him out? Does that count? Penix had a lot of big time throws in the last game that looked to me like London making crazy plays on the ball where Penix threw balls he had no business throwing. And our secondary has no ball skills. But that's another discussion. 

I think this “stat” or whatever you want to call it can help paint the bigger picture. 

I know some here are fixated on his passing yards but when you take this “stat” into account, our lack of YAC, lack of easy completions, our WR grades, you can conclude Young is having to earn a lot of what he gets 

Most here won’t watch breakdowns or all-22 so some of these throws Young is making with crazy anticipation don’t get any recognition. At the very least this “stat” is telling you he’s making some impressive throws which is what we all wanted to see