More PFF excellence

[mav1234]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Bryce has always tried to protect the ball and avoid turnovers. He will throw it away before he will force it. Look at his TD to INT in college. 

Right but that's also a little in contrast to big time throws which are still risky

Edit: also his int ratio was very bad last year, so that's been a great improvement after his benching 

Edited 15 hours ago by mav1234

[Jon Snow]

Just now, mav1234 said:

Right but that's also a little in contrast to big time throws which are still risky

I think he is realizing that he can make those throws and Canales has convinced him that he doesn't have to be perfect. Young has been a perfectionist with his game in the past as he needs to be. It's how he overcomes his "disadvantages" against his peers.

Riech and his band of "Allstars" seemed to have reinforced that drive for perfection without helping him develop as a passer in this league. When things went south so quickly Young was in his own head and starting to doubt himself. It got worse from there.

[MasterAwesome]

8 hours ago, CPF4LIFE said:

Exactly. 

In other words... don't read to much into charts and graphs. The people that do are the same ones that tell you that stats don't tell the whole story and watch the games with your eyes. 

So you think there are people who are taking this one extremely specific chart and making a broad sweeping judgment about which QBs are *good* or *bad*?  You're really grasping at straws there, buddy.  That doesn't even make sense: the people who read too much into charts and graphs are the same people who say that stats don't tell the whole story?  Maybe you can explain that one...sounds a bit contradictory.

It's not that complicated.  Use statistics to supplement what you see with your eyes on gameday.  They're both a part of the equation. To me, this chart corroborates what we've seen Bryce do time after time this season - throw accurate passes into very tight windows.  Do you dispute seeing him do that at a high rate, in accordance with the chart?  If they released this exact chart last year with Bryce positioned very favorably for this metric, I think we'd all agree it's completely bogus cause it contradicts what we witnessed from his rookie season.  Same principle with a PFF score or a 40 time at the NFL combine.  Maybe you'll get a surprising result that will make you revisit the game tape, but nobody takes those at face value to formulate their entire opinion of a player.

[CPantherKing]

4 hours ago, NAS said:

No, let’s clarify. It means Bryce is having to throw into tight windows but he’s doing it in a way where only his receivers could make the play on the ball. 

I would rather see wide open receivers like Goff but this shows how good Bryce is of making the best of what he has, throwing guys open.  So in that sense he stands out as a really efficient QB. 

If only Bryce had the receivers and play caller who could get open enough to be on the right side of the graph like Andy Dalton.

Let's not try to convince people that doubling a passing defenses opportunities to change a game because your QB can thread the needle on 29% of his high risk throws is a good trade off.

Stop making excuses for Bryce. He could have been where Jayden Daniels is if he saw the field better like Andy Dalton. Bryce is a 1 read or hot route throwing it to a point off of his pre snap reads. The receivers are breaking and tracking the ball exceptionally well on rainbow back shoulders, double coverage, and even triple coverage.

1 of every 4 or 5 attempts thrown at a tight window is bad (8 per game). 1 of every 8 to 10 attempts is good (4 per game). Why? Because a QB nearly doubles the chances of a defense making a play on the ball. This is the difference between 0 INTs and 1 to 2 INTs against the top secondaries in the league.

Go back and watch the Saints, Chargers, Broncos, Eagles, and Cowboys games. Even the Bucs demonstrated how knocking down the ball was relatively easy.

The Chiefs, Cardinals and Falcons are at the bottom of the league with their pass coverage. Still, we saw how easily the Falcons could force 3 and outs with 3 straight passes against zone on Young's final drive of regulation.

With Young's accuracy he should be at a 70% completion rate. Stop arguing against this. It's his post snap vision from the pocket that's the problem.

6 PD/2 INT, 5 PD/1 INT, 2 PD/2 INT, 4 PD/1 INT, 5 PD/1 INT, and 4 PD/2 INT is how Young produced against top 20 pass defenses. Cardinals and Falcons are bottom 10 pass defenses and bottom 4 in completion%. The Cowboys and Giants are also at the bottom, and Young struggled with them.

[TD alt]

14 hours ago, Mage said:

Or maybe, just maybe, we have receivers who can't get open?  

 

The further to the right they are means they are getting open. The lower they are means they're catchpoints and YAC are suffering.

[Icege]

"brycE cAn't thrOw dEEp"

Edited 12 hours ago by Icege

[CPantherKing]

3 hours ago, Tr3ach said:

You are reading this wrong to make it say what you want it to say.  You are saying because the qb threw in to a tight window then that means they made the wrong read or there was a wide open receiver somewhere and that isn't in the data at all.  That's you making a blank and filling it with your opinion.  Our receivers are below average at separation.  There is a good chance a tight window could still be the best or only possible throw to make.

Tell that to Andy Dalton. He was without Thielen and Coker, right? He had Johnson and Mingo after losing Thielen during the Raiders game. Did the play caller change?

Stop the excuses and pulling down the success of the receivers and the playcalling.

So, why is Young throwing more risky throws a game better than reading the defense post snap and making the correct decision? That gives the defense more opportunity to change the game.

Young's accuracy is good. His post snap pocket vision and decision making is not. That's why you don't want to be on the left side of that chart compared to the field. He will continue to cost the Panthers games against good and mediocre pass defenses if you want him to stay on the left side throwing more passes into tight windows.

We also know having Thielen and Coker is an improvement over Johnson and Mingo. So, I'd say Dalton would have moved further to the right if he had Thielen and Coker. Give Young Johnson/Mingo instead and you'd likely see Mac Jones type production with the Patriots having him high and left in that same chart.

You can't just hope Young plays the worst pass defenses like the Giants, Cardinals and Falcons for 17 games. Teams have and will make Young pay for what he did against the Cardinals and Falcons. There won't be an OT opportunity against those defenses. Young needs to get himself over to the right side of the chart with Jayden Daniels and Andy Dalton. The supporting cast excuses are not going to do that for him.

[Tr3ach]

2 hours ago, CPantherKing said:

Tell that to Andy Dalton. He was without Thielen and Coker, right? He had Johnson and Mingo after losing Thielen during the Raiders game. Did the play caller change?

Stop the excuses and pulling down the success of the receivers and the playcalling.

So, why is Young throwing more risky throws a game better than reading the defense post snap and making the correct decision? That gives the defense more opportunity to change the game.

Young's accuracy is good. His post snap pocket vision and decision making is not. That's why you don't want to be on the left side of that chart compared to the field. He will continue to cost the Panthers games against good and mediocre pass defenses if you want him to stay on the left side throwing more passes into tight windows.

We also know having Thielen and Coker is an improvement over Johnson and Mingo. So, I'd say Dalton would have moved further to the right if he had Thielen and Coker. Give Young Johnson/Mingo instead and you'd likely see Mac Jones type production with the Patriots having him high and left in that same chart.

You can't just hope Young plays the worst pass defenses like the Giants, Cardinals and Falcons for 17 games. Teams have and will make Young pay for what he did against the Cardinals and Falcons. There won't be an OT opportunity against those defenses. Young needs to get himself over to the right side of the chart with Jayden Daniels and Andy Dalton. The supporting cast excuses are not going to do that for him.

Dalton played what, 2 games?  That's not enough data points to come to your conclusion.  Again, your opinion is skewing the metrics.  There are metrics for receiver separation in one of those images and the Panthers are clearly below average in separation. 

[TD alt]

3 hours ago, Tr3ach said:

Dalton played what, 2 games?  That's not enough data points to come to your conclusion.  Again, your opinion is skewing the metrics.  There are metrics for receiver separation in one of those images and the Panthers are clearly below average in separation. 

Assuming the broken lines are the averages, Legette and Thielen are  getting above average separation. Thielen is knocking it out of the park with catching and YAC. Legette is not. Coker appears to be excellent with catching and YAC, regardless of a little less than average separation. 

I don't really like the graphing aspect of PFF's stats, because too many things aren't considered within the context of the graph; for example: how a player is being used, who is throwing and who is catching, chemistry between QB and WR, and who the players are playing with and against can all impact a players spot on that graph.

[CPF4LIFE]

23 hours ago, Mage said:

Or maybe, just maybe, we have receivers who can't get open?  

 

You can literally put together a compilation of thielen running down field and throwing his hands up for the ball this seaon..but sure they don't get open.

[BeenPounding]

On 1/7/2025 at 9:23 PM, outlaw4 said:

A few more interesting ones. Some we've seen before but are updated up through the last game.

 

How good would the Colts have been if they traded for Bryce.  Richardson is wasting a good line and quality receivers. 

[outlaw4]

3 hours ago, TD alt said:

Assuming the broken lines are the averages, Legette and Thielen are  getting above average separation. Thielen is knocking it out of the park with catching and YAC. Legette is not. Coker appears to be excellent with catching and YAC, regardless of a little less than average separation. 

I don't really like the graphing aspect of PFF's stats, because too many things aren't considered within the context of the graph; for example: how a player is being used, who is throwing and who is catching, chemistry between QB and WR, and who the players are playing with and against can all impact a players spot on that graph.

That is ultimately the limitation of stats in general. They certainly may say something, but not really the why. For example, I've noticed that the Ravens stats indicate guys being quite open and it certainly looks that way watching some of their games. However, it's really the receivers are that skilled or is it more that you have both Lamar and Henry as scary running threats that forces defenses into defending that threat more at the expense of pass coverage? What about the Lions? Is it the opposite with the Lions? 

If there's a metric I'm trying to look at for us, it's play action. I just get the impression we really don't utilize it enough - Olsen specifically mentioned this about us during the Cowboys game - and that's not helping our receivers get a little more separation.

[Mage]

2 hours ago, CPF4LIFE said:

You can literally put together a compilation of thielen running down field and throwing his hands up for the ball this seaon..but sure they don't get open.

That is one WR.  And Bryce made sure to get Thielen involved.