A look back at preseason predictions

[Martin]

I had two reservations against XL, his route running and his hands. His route running has been really good, which is both surprising and awesome.

But until he can catch the ball on a consistent basis… It will be interesting to see if there is a big difference after his wrist surgery. Chuba improved a lot after working at it extremely hard, so maybe there is a chance?

[Jon Snow]

7 minutes ago, CRA said:

to an extent, he also suffers a bit of what Bryce suffers from.  Bryce is 1000% judged off the fact he was #1 overall, we traded away draft picks, gave up DJ Moore and others look better than him.  Some drastically. 

we made XL a 1st round pick.  He realistically was a 2nd.  And folks see other WRs that are actually in great situations like Ladd. 

Mingo.  TMJ.  Samuel.  All recent 2nd round picks.  Rookie XL has more production than all 3 of them combined.  So, he probably is judged harsher than he should be

You are still blaming Young for the Panthers drafting him? That's the part I cannot wrap my mind around. Where a player is selected is not up to the players. Because the Panthers gave up so much for him doesn't make him any better than what he would have been. You think that somehow draft slot somehow makes the player instantly better. So your saying if the Panthers had traded up to draft Matt Corral at number 1 overall that would instantly make Matt the best player in the draft? That's not how it works. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Jon Snow

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, CRA said:

to an extent, he also suffers a bit of what Bryce suffers from.  Bryce is 1000% judged off the fact he was #1 overall, we traded away draft picks, gave up DJ Moore and others look better than him.  Some drastically. 

we made XL a 1st round pick.  He realistically was a 2nd.  And folks see other WRs that are actually in great situations like Ladd. 

Mingo.  TMJ.  Samuel.  All recent 2nd round picks.  Rookie XL has more production than all 3 of them combined.  So, he probably is judged harsher than he should be

I would say XL should have been a 3rd rounder, IMO. High ceiling, scary low floor. That usually when those guys start getting pretty attractive.

Samuel had 26 targets in his first year and produced very little. Mingo was very similar to XL. 85 targets for 43 catches and 418 yards, 0 TD's. TMJ literally has had 116 targets in his entire NFL career. 

XL is probably Mingo+. I don't think his career will fall off a cliff the same way. however.

[CRA]

4 minutes ago, Martin said:

I had two reservations against XL, his route running and his hands. His route running has been really good, which is both surprising and awesome.

But until he can catch the ball on a consistent basis… It will be interesting to see if there is a big difference after his wrist surgery. Chuba improved a lot after working at it extremely hard, so maybe there is a chance?

yeah, sort of lost in this recent XL bash session.....some really great use of his body too by about midway into the season.  Lot of Micheal Irvin type praise. 

people also forget these first seasons are long for a rookie.  He is also banged up.  Generally, they are used to having their feet up weeks ago. 

[CRA]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I would say XL should have been a 3rd rounder, IMO. High ceiling, scary low floor. That usually when those guys start getting pretty attractive.

Samuel had 26 targets in his first year and produced very little. Mingo was very similar to XL. 85 targets for 43 catches and 418 yards, 0 TD's. TMJ literally has had 116 targets in his entire NFL career. 

XL is probably Mingo+. I don't think his career will fall off a cliff the same way. however.

I never got Mingo.  I at least see the path for XL

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, CRA said:

I never got Mingo.  I at least see the path for XL

Mingo's floor was below CFL caliber.

XL's is PS player.

If he doesn't make a big jump next year, I think it will be unlikely he turns it around. It's pretty rare that a modern NFL rookie WR has a very long development cycle to being serviceable. And we can't say he isn't going to have opportunities. It isn’t like we have more options(yet).

I also think if we see a big offseason signing or a significant draft pick, then you will likely see that the FO has shifted their opinions, as well. I doubt either will happen but you never know.

[CRA]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Mingo's floor was below CFL caliber.

XL's is PS player.

If he doesn't make a big jump next year, I think it will be unlikely he turns it around. It's pretty rare that a modern NFL rookie WR has a very long development cycle to being serviceable. And we can't say he isn't going to have opportunities. It isn’t like we have more options(yet).

I also think if we see a big offseason signing or a significant draft pick, then you will likely see that the FO has shifted their opinions, as well. I doubt either will happen but you never know.

Lions got a kid that took some time.  Williams really coming together. 

but yeah, in today's NFL, WRs basically are hitting way earlier than the old days.  By year 2, you generally know. 

[mrcompletely11]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

Mingo's floor was below CFL caliber.

XL's is PS player.

If he doesn't make a big jump next year, I think it will be unlikely he turns it around. It's pretty rare that a modern NFL rookie WR has a very long development cycle to being serviceable. And we can't say he isn't going to have opportunities. It isn’t like we have more options(yet).

I also think if we see a big offseason signing or a significant draft pick, then you will likely see that the FO has shifted their opinions, as well. I doubt either will happen but you never know.

Mike Kaye came from Philly.  He doesnt sugarcoat things like the local guys used to.  I love how he is (somewhat) critical of the players and system.   This is what he said about XL after the first 4 games.  And keep in mind he was the only writer to my knowledge not blowing bryce in the preseason and saying we should probably pump the brakes on his expectations and this was after watching practice

 

Panthers reporter Mike Kaye said in Week 4, "Legette might be the most awkward running wide receiver we've seen in a long time. He gallops down the field like he has pebbles in his cleats but fire in his heart. He is deceptively quick, but weirdly off-balance."

[TD alt]

1 hour ago, kungfoodude said:

l also think if we see a big offseason signing or a significant draft pick, then you will likely see that the FO has shifted their opinions, as well. I doubt either will happen but you never know.

Dude, we need a receiver regardless. I don't think acquiring one, whether it be on day one or two of the draft or the first day of FA, will signal anything but that we have a sober-minded FO. If Tet McMillan is on the board, I expect us to give him a look regardless---be at his pro day, and I absolutely expect us to bring him in for a private workout. Anything less is managerial malfeasance. The same for Burden III, I might add.

Edited December 31, 2024 by TD alt

[kungfoodude]

13 minutes ago, TD alt said:

Dude, we need a receiver regardless. I don't think acquiring one, whether it be on day one or two of the draft or the first day of FA, will signal anything but that we have a sober-minded FO. If Tet McMillan is on the board, I expect us to give him a look regardless---be at his pro day, and I absolutely expect us to bring him in for a private workout. Anything less is managerial malfeasance. The same for Burden III, I might add.

So, about that.....

[Basbear]

I had a firm 2 wins and if anything 1 win was my next vote.- Wrong. reason being next statement;

 

Just don't have any talent, young, offense, defense, etc.- Id say right even with the 4 wins

 

I just didn't believe in BY and still don't even with him improving from 42nd level play to 20th.- don't know how to call, I'd say 60 wrong 40 right.

 

I thought Miles aka inches sanders would bounce back somewhat form the ultra poor showing- dead wrong. I believe this is my biggest FA miss of all-time Panthers wise. 

 

I don't judge rookies until 2nd full off-season. *But I didn't much like the class, only pick I agreed on was Sanders. I did go back and have a re-draft before seasons start, Dan did much better than I thought with the big whiff of brooks whom he traded up for. Still I thought they look better than past years and he found 2-4 UDFAs to fill holes. I'd want to see the same aggression for UDFAs this next class as well. 

 

My predictions have taken a drive nearly each year, like the Panthers I need to improve. I go for long odd stuff its my weakness. 

 

Still massive talent influx is needed. Besides OL(well center), Chubba, Dbrown, horn the whole roster needs help. Even ST needs a total overhaul, no kicker, punter, or LS is under contract for 2025. A few of the core STer are FAs too ie Franklin, franks, and Johnson. 

 

There's no reason to have this poor roster along with barely any cap space. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Basbear

[kungfoodude]

45 minutes ago, Basbear said:

There's no reason to have this poor roster along with barely any cap space. 

There is a reason.

[raleigh-panther]

On 12/30/2024 at 10:17 AM, kungfoodude said:

Yeah, maybe a guy like, IDK.....Ladd McConkey?

One of the things that drives me crazy about this Seattle connection 

they seem to like to bring in players like they had in Seattle…or guys like their next coaching assignment

there is only one Mike Evans. There is only one DK Metcalf

there is only one Russell Wilson in his prime

if fitterer. Morgan. Canales have tunnel vision it is demonstrated in their draft picks vs developing their own vision

Legette should not have been that pick. There is no justification for it

[Bear Hands]

23 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I would say XL should have been a 3rd rounder, IMO. High ceiling, scary low floor. That usually when those guys start getting pretty attractive.

Samuel had 26 targets in his first year and produced very little. Mingo was very similar to XL. 85 targets for 43 catches and 418 yards, 0 TD's. TMJ literally has had 116 targets in his entire NFL career. 

XL is probably Mingo+. I don't think his career will fall off a cliff the same way. however.

That's an apt comparison with Samuel given how we've tried to use XL.  His desired ceiling is some sort of amalgamation of DK & Deebo but it may take time to get consistent results.    

As a prospect, it was clear he is ideally an X, frame wise.  But he still needed route running refinement and to work better against zone.  And the lack of short area quickness led him to being more of a guy you trickle into that role and can use him in more gimmicky fashion where he's in motion and gaining speed pre-snap.  Funny thing is he caught on quicker with playing outside early on, but he's still stiff and awkward. 

He's just in need of way more development than you want to see at that age - that's why I personally pegged him in the 3rd.  I distinctly remember Brugler saying some teams had him as low as #70ish overall and a 3rd/4th rounder, but others had him as high as WR6.  We were obviously one of those all about him.  

To note, we've played XL 25% slot, 75% wide.      

On the flipside, Ladd had the flexibility to play outside but it's due to his top tier route running and separation ability.  But he's not the guy you isolate out there to play against man coverage.  He's played slot 70% and out wide 30% of his snaps this season.  And it's been a perfect blend.  This is close to AT's allocation 70/30.   

The guy I was a BIG fan of that the 49ers pounced on was Pearsall, mainly because he had similar strengths to Ladd, but was a bit more of a frame to play man out wide.  Some pegged him more slot, but funny enough, Shanahan has played him only 40% slot, 60% out wide.  He's been showing off now that he's getting folded in more.  

You want the position flexibility with all your receivers these days, which is why I don't see redundancy with AT.  We could've figured it out.  You simply get a field stretcher to pull the faster CBs away from AT.