A Tankathon Approach to the remaining Schedule

[MHS831]

Tankathon Draft Order (12/28/24)

 

*GIANTS  While a win is unlikely because the Giants’ strength of schedule could take them from first overall pick to sixth using current data, Indy is erratic and Philly could be resting starters.  Regardless, I see little chance the Giants punish the fans with an insulting win to lose an opportunity to get a franchise qb.

*PATRIOTS New England has 2 home games left if chilly Foxboro.  The Chargers are only giving 4.5 points this week and Buffalo could very well be resting starters next week. It seems unlikely on paper, but New England does not need a QB and they are going to try to win.

*JAGUARS Jacksonville gets Tennessee at home and they are still slight underdogs.  The end the season in Indy, who could be fighting for a wildcard.  If they are going to win, it is Sunday. A 1 point home dog against a bad team means anything could happen.

*TITANSBasically, the Titans are very slight road favorites at Jacksonville Sunday.  Panther fans should root for the Titans because someone is going to go tho 4-12.  Tennessee’s SOS is higher, so the Panthers want them to win.  Jax can win and still not help the Panthers. If Tennessee wins, it could mean that the Panthers move up a spot.

*BROWNS  Their only hope is for a snow storm in Cleveland for the Dolphins game–they still lose.  Cleveland has scored below 20 points 12 of 15 games this year.  Yikes.  They will be a top 5 pick, which will make the draft interesting.  With Watson and Winston struggling, what will they do?                                                                                                                                                         

*RAIDERS  Based on the Saints terrible performance vs.Green Bay Monday Night, the Raiders were made favorites (-1.5) in the Big Easy.  New Orleans not only looked like crap, they have a slew of injuries (Kamara for one) and are playing on a short week following a demoralizing win, while the Raiders are riding a one-game win streak.

*BEARS  In their last 4 games, the Bears have been outscored 45-131.  The golden child who was destined for greatness (courtesy of the Carolina Panthers) has lost his mojo.  With one game to play at Green Bay, they will not win another game this season.  If the Panthers lose out, the Bears will not draft ahead of them–they have a .560 SOS to the Panthers’ .494.

*PANTHERS While the Panthers almost beat Tampa Bay at home recently, they are 8 point dogs at Tampa.  Their best chance for a Wis in Atlanta week 18, but if Pennix plays like he has so far, we probably lose.

*JETS  The Jets were considered a favorite to compete in the playoffs when they scrimmaged us.  Heads are going to roll in January, one might think.  Their SOS is slightly higher than the Panthers right now–so if both teams lose out, Math will determine who picks before whom.

*SAINTS  It is very unlikely that the Saints impact the Panthers’ draft position, but mathematically, they could if the Panthers win a game, the Saints lose out, and the SOS shifts from the Panthers’ favor to their favor somehow.  However, the Saints (currently) pick 10th, and it is impossible for the Panther to pick worse than 10th.

Who to root for this week and why:

 

SATURDAY, 12/28

Chargers (-4.5) vs. Patriots:  Of course, the Patriots are the team to root for, but if they win, their SOS is much lower than the Panthers, so the Panthers would not jump them–yet.  But the Pats play Buffalo the following week, and the Bills could rest their starters.  Long shot, but No Brainer- GO PATS!!.

 

SUNDAY, 12/29

Titans (-1) vs. Jags:  If the Jags win, their record goes to 4-12 like the Panthers is likely to be, but their SOS is lower.  The Titans could win and their SOS would be higher than the Panthers if both are 4-12.  No Brainer–GO TENNESSEE!!

 

Jets vs. Bills (-10):  Pull for the Jets, but they are nearly 10 point dawgs.  Not likely, but No brainer–GO NYJ!!

 

Raiders (-1.5) vs. Saints: A Saints win eliminates them from any chance of picking ahead of the Panthers, and even if the Panthers go 1-1 and the Saints finish 0-2, it is likely the Panther pick ahead of them.  On the other hand, a Raiders win and a Panther loss this week puts the Panthers ahead of the Raiders. No Brainer–GO VEGAS!!!

 

Colts (-7.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would have to run the table to pick later than the Panthers.  Don’t waste sweat on this one. Indy has a winning road record and NY is 0-8.  Not happening.   No Brainer-forget about the Giants. 

 

Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Browns.  The forecast today in Cleveland is 58 degrees and overcast.  Fish dodge a blizzard.  However, the Browns could surprise because Winston is streaky when he is not being stupid.  If the Browns pull of the home upset, their SOS is higher than Carolina’s.  No Brainer–GO BROWNS!!

 

 

Noteworthy:

The Panthers  move up in the draft order immediately if any of the following three teams win:  Tennessee, Las Vegas, Cleveland,  Since the Bears already played Thursday night, a Panther loss moves them ahead of Chicago based on current SOS. 

 

If the Panthers win out, the worst they can pick is 10th overall

 

Edited 15 hours ago by MHS831

[MHS831]

Sorry for the tech screw up--could not clear.

[kass]

7 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Sorry for the tech screw up--could not clear.

All good. Clicking on the attached picture make it readable on the phone. 

[kungfoodude]

It's annoying how little our draft position is impacted by going 0-2 versus 2-0. 

The logjam in the turd pile this year is nuts.

[OldhamA]

48 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Tankathon Draft Order (12/28/24)

 

*GIANTS  While a win is unlikely because the Giants’ strength of schedule could take them from first overall pick to sixth using current data, Indy is erratic and Philly could be resting starters.  Regardless, I see little chance the Giants punish the fans with an insulting win to lose an opportunity to get a franchise qb.

*PATRIOTS New England has 2 home games left if chilly Foxboro.  The Chargers are only giving 4.5 points this week and Buffalo could very well be resting starters next week. It seems unlikely on paper, but New England does not need a QB and they are going to try to win.

*JAGUARS Jacksonville gets Tennessee at home and they are still slight underdogs.  The end the season in Indy, who could be fighting for a wildcard.  If they are going to win, it is Sunday. A 1 point home dog against a bad team means anything could happen.

*TITANSBasically, the Titans are very slight road favorites at Jacksonville Sunday.  Panther fans should root for the Titans because someone is going to go tho 4-12.  Tennessee’s SOS is higher, so the Panthers want them to win.  Jax can win and still not help the Panthers. If Tennessee wins, it could mean that the Panthers move up a spot.

*BROWNS  Their only hope is for a snow storm in Cleveland for the Dolphins game–they still lose.  Cleveland has scored below 20 points 12 of 15 games this year.  Yikes.  They will be a top 5 pick, which will make the draft interesting.  With Watson and Winston struggling, what will they do?                                                                                                                                                         

*RAIDERS  Based on the Saints terrible performance vs.Green Bay Monday Night, the Raiders were made favorites (-1.5) in the Big Easy.  New Orleans not only looked like crap, they have a slew of injuries (Kamara for one) and are playing on a short week following a demoralizing win, while the Raiders are riding a one-game win streak.

*BEARS  In their last 4 games, the Bears have been outscored 45-131.  The golden child who was destined for greatness (courtesy of the Carolina Panthers) has lost his mojo.  With one game to play at Green Bay, they will not win another game this season.  If the Panthers lose out, the Bears will not draft ahead of them–they have a .560 SOS to the Panthers’ .494.

*PANTHERS While the Panthers almost beat Tampa Bay at home recently, they are 8 point dogs at Tampa.  Their best chance for a Wis in Atlanta week 18, but if Pennix plays like he has so far, we probably lose.

*JETS  The Jets were considered a favorite to compete in the playoffs when they scrimmaged us.  Heads are going to roll in January, one might think.  Their SOS is slightly higher than the Panthers right now–so if both teams lose out, Math will determine who picks before whom.

*SAINTS  It is very unlikely that the Saints impact the Panthers’ draft position, but mathematically, they could if the Panthers win a game, the Saints lose out, and the SOS shifts from the Panthers’ favor to their favor somehow.  However, the Saints (currently) pick 10th, and it is impossible for the Panther to pick worse than 10th.

Who to root for this week and why:

 

SATURDAY, 12/28

Chargers (-4.5) vs. Patriots:  Of course, the Patriots are the team to root for, but if they win, their SOS is much lower than the Panthers, so the Panthers would not jump them–yet.  But the Pats play Buffalo the following week, and the Bills could rest their starters.  Long shot, but No Brainer- GO PATS!!.

 

SUNDAY, 12/29

Titans (-1) vs. Jags:  If the Jags win, their record goes to 4-12 like the Panthers is likely to be, but their SOS is lower.  The Titans could win and their SOS would be higher than the Panthers if both are 4-12.  No Brainer–GO TENNESSEE!!

 

Jets vs. Bills (-10):  Pull for the Jets, but they are nearly 10 point dawgs.  Not likely, but No brainer–GO NYJ!!

 

Raiders (-1.5) vs. Saints: A Saints win eliminates them from any chance of picking ahead of the Panthers, and even if the Panthers go 1-1 and the Saints finish 0-2, it is likely the Panther pick ahead of them.  On the other hand, a Raiders win and a Panther loss this week puts the Panthers ahead of the Raiders. No Brainer–GO VEGAS!!!

 

Colts (-7.5) vs. Giants: The Giants would have to run the table to pick later than the Panthers.  Don’t waste sweat on this one. Indy has a winning road record and NY is 0-8.  Not happening.   No Brainer-forget about the Giants. 

 

Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Browns.  The forecast today in Cleveland is 58 degrees and overcast.  Fish dodge a blizzard.  However, the Browns could surprise because Winston is streaky when he is not being stupid.  If the Browns pull of the home upset, their SOS is higher than Carolina’s.  No Brainer–GO BROWNS!!

 

 

Noteworthy:

The Panthers  move up in the draft order immediately if any of the following three teams win:  Tennessee, Las Vegas, Cleveland,  Since the Bears already played Thursday night, a Panther loss moves them ahead of Chicago based on current SOS. 

 

If the Panthers win out, the worst they can pick is 10th overall

 

I'd like to win out, please. 

If Bryce Young is the franchise QB half of you believe he is then you should want us to win too. 

[kungfoodude]

Just now, OldhamA said:

I'd like to win out, please. 

If Bryce Young is the franchise QB half of you believe he is then you should want us to win too. 

I mean the projected difference in draft position is really irrelevant, TBH. 

This is the first year sonce 2005 that 10+ teams could finished with 5 or less wins. 

In most years we would be solidly in the top 6 with a 4 win year.

[CamWhoaaCam]

34 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

I'd like to win out, please. 

If Bryce Young is the franchise QB half of you believe he is then you should want us to win too. 

What do we get by winning out besides dropping back on the draft board?

 

Let me guess we playing for pride!

 

Pride that nobody will care about starting next season. Nah give me something that can help us. Losing helps us move up in the draft.

 

 

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

What do we get by winning out besides dropping back on the draft board?

 

Let me guess we playing for pride!

 

Pride that nobody will care about starting next season. Nah give me something that can help us. Losing helps us move up in the draft.

 

 

I want the draft capital too, Cam, but I can answer it this way:  We would be picking no worse than 10.  If we lose out, it could be as bad as 7.  If veterans who are free agents see that they can get in early on a winning team on the horizon, they are more likely to be interested in signing with Carolina that, say, Chicago, who seems to be in disarray.  This is speculative, however--and I don't see us as big players in free agency--so it may be a mute point.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, CamWhoaaCam said:

What do we get by winning out besides dropping back on the draft board?

 

Let me guess we playing for pride!

 

Pride that nobody will care about starting next season. Nah give me something that can help us. Losing helps us move up in the draft.

 

 

Winning 2 games and losing 2 games is probably the difference in about 3-4 spots in position, if even that much.

Also, it's less position than evaluation that is the problem. Gotta fix that first.

 

[ThPantherFan]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

If the Panthers win out, the worst they can pick is 10th overall

If the NFL believes we tanked on purpose the penalty would be........?

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I want the draft capital too, Cam, but I can answer it this way:  We would be picking no worse than 10.  If we lose out, it could be as bad as 7.  If veterans who are free agents see that they can get in early on a winning team on the horizon, they are more likely to be interested in signing with Carolina that, say, Chicago, who seems to be in disarray.  This is speculative, however--and I don't see us as big players in free agency--so it may be a mute point.

I would say that Chicago COULD be a hotter destination regardless depending on the coaching hire(s). Far more "win ready" team than we are on paper, for whatever that is worth.

Honestly, I think our biggest hurdle is going to be the same as teams like the Jets, which is the reputation for overall organizational dysfunction. There is no question that winning is what helps improve that more than any other individual factor.

Which, we were also able to get the best two guards on the market last year....by overpaying. But, I think even armchair/keyboard GM's know that isn't a sustainable model in the long term.

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, ThPantherFan said:

If the NFL believes we tanked on purpose the penalty would be........?

in 2022, the NFL suspended the Miami Dolphins owner and fined him $1.5 million for violating policies related to the integrity of the game when they were tanking.

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, ThPantherFan said:

If the NFL believes we tanked on purpose the penalty would be........?

Pretty sure it cost Doug Pederson his job. That was basically the penalty.

[ThPantherFan]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

in 2022, the NFL suspended the Miami Dolphins owner and fined him $1.5 million for violating policies related to the integrity of the game when they were tanking.

I thought you lost draft picks.  Tepper can afford it.