"Don’t Look Now, but Bryce Young is Closing the Gap on C.J. Stroud"

[Navy_football]

Stats don't always tell the story. Stroud has played better than Bryce both years. That is not arguable. Stroud has always had a better supporting cast than Bryce. That really is not arguable either. 

Now if you really watched the games last season, you could tell Stroud was in a much better situation with regards to protection, playcalling and receivers. He was throwing to a lot of wide open guys with little to no pressure most times he dropped back. That gives you the confidence to stand in the pocket and trust your receivers when things get dirty. And those receivers were making big plays after the catch. I don't care what pressure statistics you're looking at, but when I watched the games, Bryce was constantly facing pressure with receivers that couldn't beat their men and playcalling that didn't scheme guys open enough. You had to give him a mulligan after that. And that was as a rookie. So Stroud is facing now what Bryce faced as a rookie with regards to pressure. In his second season, he should be better than rookie Bryce. They have weapons to spare over there in comparison to Carolina. Bryce may have benefited from such a tough rookie season, as he seems to thrive under pressure now. Teams are learning that you can't just blitz him any time you want anymore. He's finding the answers and making you pay. Stroud hasn't quite gotten there but he will. He just hasn't faced it to the degree that Bryce has, until recently. They're both good young QBs right now. Different. But good QBs right now. 

[*FreeFua*]

26 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

Now if you really watched the games last season, you could tell Stroud was in a much better situation with regards to protection, playcalling and receivers. He was throwing to a lot of wide open guys with little to no pressure most times he dropped back.

You’re going to lose 95% of this place right here 

[Navy_football]

1 hour ago, *FreeFua* said:

You’re going to lose 95% of this place right here 

I honestly get the impression that many don't watch other games. They just stat watch. Every time Bryce misses a throw - after making 5 completions in a row, 2 being of high difficulty: he sucks, high school QBs should be able to make that throw. Meanwhile, Josh Allen misses the exact same throw in a game. 

[PleaseCutStewart]

On 12/14/2024 at 12:23 PM, CamWhoaaCam said:

It's possible we selected the best QB after all. Stroud has looked bad all season.

I still think CJ is better, but Houston might very well David Carr him. That oline is horrendous and with all of the wide receiver injuries they have had this year, receivers aren't getting open quick enough.

I still remember watching that Titans game they lost a few weeks ago and was amazed at the amount of defensive lineman that came free on basic 4 man rushes. I think Tennessee had something like 10 sacks that game

[NAS]

10 minutes ago, PleaseCutStewart said:

I still think CJ is better, but Houston might very well David Carr him. That oline is horrendous and with all of the wide receiver injuries they have had this year, receivers aren't getting open quick enough.

I dont' think he's been damaged like that but one thing is clear, don't ever underestimate what constant pressure can do to a young QB.  It's enough if you hesitate for a split second or take your eyes off the field and focus on the pressure to make you miss reads and throws.  The NFL is unforgiveable in that regard

[mav1234]

6 hours ago, NAS said:

Nobody said he isn’t because BY got benched for a reason. But the discussion has always been if Bryce is “closing the gap” since he returned as a starter. Legitimate conversation don’t you think? 

There's a difference between closing the gap and claiming they're at the same place, which is clearly what is being meant by posting stats out of context. 

Clearly the gap is closing given the original story is basically arguing that the gap was "may not last in NFL" versus "potentially one of the top players at his position" and regardless of where Stroud is now, Bryce at least will be here next year, so that's a MASSIVE movement on Bryce's part.

[NAS]

6 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

There's a difference between closing the gap and claiming they're at the same place, which is clearly what is being meant by posting stats out of context. 

I never post things without context and have been clear they're not at the same place and Bryce has ways to go.  Go back and read my posts in this thread and stop with the false narrative. 

Edited 14 hours ago by NAS

[mav1234]

3 hours ago, Navy_football said:

Stats don't always tell the story. Stroud has played better than Bryce both years. That is not arguable. Stroud has always had a better supporting cast than Bryce. That really is not arguable either. 

Now if you really watched the games last season, you could tell Stroud was in a much better situation with regards to protection, playcalling and receivers. He was throwing to a lot of wide open guys with little to no pressure most times he dropped back. That gives you the confidence to stand in the pocket and trust your receivers when things get dirty. And those receivers were making big plays after the catch. I don't care what pressure statistics you're looking at, but when I watched the games, Bryce was constantly facing pressure with receivers that couldn't beat their men and playcalling that didn't scheme guys open enough. You had to give him a mulligan after that. And that was as a rookie. So Stroud is facing now what Bryce faced as a rookie with regards to pressure. In his second season, he should be better than rookie Bryce. They have weapons to spare over there in comparison to Carolina. Bryce may have benefited from such a tough rookie season, as he seems to thrive under pressure now. Teams are learning that you can't just blitz him any time you want anymore. He's finding the answers and making you pay. Stroud hasn't quite gotten there but he will. He just hasn't faced it to the degree that Bryce has, until recently. They're both good young QBs right now. Different. But good QBs right now. 

Overall I don't disagree with you. 

But you are downright wrong about Stroud not being pressured on drop backs last year.  He was hurried a lot, hit quite a bit, etc last year. This is per game...

Chart courtesy Icege. To put those numbers in context of how often they dropped back, Bryce was pressured on 24% of his dropbacks last year; Stroud 22%. Bryce is actually being pressured on MORE dropbacks this year than he was last year; 25%. Stroud is at 27%.

Stroud's offensive line was bad, and it was barely above ours last year.  But as you point out, he had a better scheme and weapons (and a defense to lean on). This year, his weapons have missed TONS of time.  The D hasn't been as good. The OL fell even further off a cliff and they didn't invest like we did in OL.

We spend a lot of time talking about supporting cast - let's not forget the OL investment we made for Bryce. 

[mav1234]

8 minutes ago, NAS said:

I never post things without context and have been clear they're not at the same place and Bryce has ways to go.  Go back and read my posts in this thread and stop with the false narrative. 

It's not a false narrative. One poster posted career stats to clearly argue the gap isn't close; you posted their since week 8, then quoted yourself to sum the TDs and just said "context matters." 

If what you meant by that was "Stroud is obviously still ahead but Bryce is playing better", I'd agree with you, but you could see why "12v10" or whatever it was may not convey that, no?

[Navy_football]

1 hour ago, mav1234 said:

Overall I don't disagree with you. 

But you are downright wrong about Stroud not being pressured on drop backs last year.  He was hurried a lot, hit quite a bit, etc last year. This is per game...

Chart courtesy Icege. To put those numbers in context of how often they dropped back, Bryce was pressured on 24% of his dropbacks last year; Stroud 22%. Bryce is actually being pressured on MORE dropbacks this year than he was last year; 25%. Stroud is at 27%.

Stroud's offensive line was bad, and it was barely above ours last year.  But as you point out, he had a better scheme and weapons (and a defense to lean on). This year, his weapons have missed TONS of time.  The D hasn't been as good. The OL fell even further off a cliff and they didn't invest like we did in OL.

We spend a lot of time talking about supporting cast - let's not forget the OL investment we made for Bryce. 

Again, watch a couple of Houston games from last season and tell me what you see. Watch a couple of Carolina games last season and tell me the QB was pressured less than Houston's. Even Dalton's great game against Seattle saw him under constant duress and taking multiple HUGE hits. Don't watch the highlights. Just watch the offensive snaps for both teams. It really wasn't that close. And all pressure isn't the same. Outside pressure that allows you to step up into the pocket is doable. Immediate inside pressure with the outside shrinking on you is not.

[mav1234]

2 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

Again, watch a couple of Houston games from last season and tell me what you see. Watch a couple of Carolina games last season and tell me the QB was pressured less than Houston's. Even Dalton's great game against Seattle saw him under constant duress and taking multiple HUGE hits. Don't watch the highlights. Just watch the offensive snaps for both teams. It really wasn't that close. And all pressure isn't the same. Outside pressure that allows you to step up into the pocket is doable. Immediate inside pressure with the outside shrinking on you is not.

Oh I'm not saying our OL was better or that our QBs weren't under constant pressure. I watched almost all our games and I watched several Texans games... Their OL was very bad too. The numbers reflect that.  I think that Stroud's decline this year is a reflection of the type of pressures he's taking, the lack of consistency in who he is playing with weapons wise, and a sophomore slump.

[countryboi]

Say what you want, but my eyes tell me that Bryce is playing better than CJ and Caleb right now. Bryce is making decisive decisions, whereas CJ is missing reads and throws that he was easily making last season. This might be due to the pressure, but realistically, no one is going to care.

[Navy_football]

3 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Oh I'm not saying our OL was better or that our QBs weren't under constant pressure. I watched almost all our games and I watched several Texans games... Their OL was very bad too. The numbers reflect that.  I think that Stroud's decline this year is a reflection of the type of pressures he's taking, the lack of consistency in who he is playing with weapons wise, and a sophomore slump.

Agree, Houston's oline isn't/wasn't good. I just think Carolina's was a crap show. And Houston's scheme and weapons definitely helped mitigate their bad play. Guards and tackles both getting beat at the snap on the same play in Carolina. Bryce was definitely shell shocked, and rightfully so as a rookie. The FO had to fix that. It wasn't sustainable for any QB long term. CJ is getting a taste of it now due to injuries at the reciever position. But even with Diggs and Dell out, his weapons are still better than Carolina's. CJ will adjust. He's too good not to. But the FO should be a little more intentional with improving the oline. They have an embarrassment of riches at the receiver position. Guys they could sacrifice to improve the oline.

[mav1234]

21 minutes ago, Navy_football said:

Agree, Houston's oline isn't/wasn't good. I just think Carolina's was a crap show. And Houston's scheme and weapons definitely helped mitigate their bad play. Guards and tackles both getting beat at the snap on the same play in Carolina. Bryce was definitely shell shocked, and rightfully so as a rookie. The FO had to fix that. It wasn't sustainable for any QB long term. CJ is getting a taste of it now due to injuries at the reciever position. But even with Diggs and Dell out, his weapons are still better than Carolina's. CJ will adjust. He's too good not to. But the FO should be a little more intentional with improving the oline. They have an embarrassment of riches at the receiver position. Guys they could sacrifice to improve the oline.

Agreed. Stroud will be fine. He'll adjust.  But their FO NEEDS to prioritize OL this offseason imo.

Been a really terrible year for Houston, injury wise... I think Houston's weapons will be fine (well maybe not Dell from reports ). Just such a rough year for them. We'll see how next year goes for him.

Hopefully our OL continues its high level play, as it's really helped Bryce adjust to the NFL. I still believe a good OL is a young QBs best weapon.